We have you covered with a total of 10 NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 1.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Bills vs. Texans and Buccaneers vs. Bengals among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have picks for Commanders vs. Eagles and Packers vs. Vikings later in the day. We also have bets for Ravens vs. Colts, Saints vs. Lions, and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 1 of the NFL season on September 13.
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NFL Player Props Week 1
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Buccaneers vs. Bengals
Baker Mayfield Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-115)
By Chris Prince
With a total of 50.5 points and two suspect secondaries, we have a potential shootout on our hands with Bucs-Bengals — I really like this number for Baker Mayfield.
Even with the loss of Mike Evans, Mayfield is surrounded by plenty of talent at wide receiver and tight end, and the Bucs added one of the best pass-catching running backs this offseason in Kenneth Gainwell.
While this Bengals defense is likely to be improved this season, it's still a unit that looks very vulnerable overall.
With the Bucs being underdogs in this game against a potent Bengals offense, Mayfield may be forced to the air the ball out early and often, and he should find success against this Bengals defense that allowed the 8th-most passing yards per game to quarterbacks last season (245.1).
We have Mayfield projected for 244 passing yards, and I'm even more bullish than that, making this one of my favorite prop bets to open the season.
Pick: Baker Mayfield Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Bears vs. Panthers
Jalen Coker Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By Brit Devine
Jalen Coker returned from injury in October of last season, and after ramping up into game shape, he surpassed this line in five of his last seven games (and four of his last five).
Coker got paid this offseason to the tune of $35 million, which isn't an enormous contract, but it solidified him as an integral part of the Panthers' plans at WR for the next few seasons. He also had a very solid rookie season in 2024.
Coker excels against man coverage, which is something the Bears used at the 8th-highest rate last season, and of Carolina's WR group, he also has the easiest matchup on paper against slot CB Cam Lewis, who is mediocre at best.
The Bears defense will likely be in the conversation for one of the worst units in the league, which should create plenty of opportunities for Coker to breeze past this number.
Pick: Jalen Coker Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Ravens vs. Colts
Lamar Jackson Under 28.5 Pass Attempts (-135)
This line seems inflated by the Ravens' coaching staff changes. Former Bears offensive coordinator Declan Doyle is their new offensive coordinator and Jesse Minter is their new head coach.
The Ravens were a pass-heavy team last season, but they also couldn't run the ball. I'm not expecting Baltimore's identity to completely change with Doyle at the helm.
Lamar Jackson has averaged fewer than 26 attempts per game since Derrick Henry joined the team.
Only three teams have had a sub-50% pass rate in either of the past two seasons. The Ravens have done it in back-to-back seasons.
The Colts had a brutal pass defense last season, so they brought in Sauce Gardner. They should also have a healthy Charvarius Ward.
Indy should be a tougher passing matchup this season.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Under 28.5 Pass Attempts (-135)
Saints vs. Lions
Bryce Lance Anytime Touchdown (+750)
By Brit Devine
Injuries have hit the Saints WR crew hard to start the season, which is going to put 4th-round rookie Bryce Lance on the field for a significant number of snaps in Week 1.
Lance performed very well at the NFL Combine, and at 6-foot-3, he has the size to be a viable red-zone target.
In a game that is projected to be high scoring — with a ton of passing expected from the Saints — a player that should be on the field running routes on a significant portion of snaps should not have these long of odds to find the end zone, even as a rookie playing his first game.
Pick: Bryce Lance Anytime Touchdown (+750)
Jets vs. Titans
Tony Pollard Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-114)
Tony Pollard closed the 2025 campaign strong, averaging 100 rushing yards on 18.4 carries over the final five games.
It certainly helped that the Titans won a pair of those games and were competitive in two others.
The Titans are actually favored in this matchup, which is something that might not happen too much this season.
We should see a steady workload for Pollard, even if Tyjae Spears takes away a handful of carries.
Pick: Tony Pollard Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-114)
Bills vs. Texans
Woody Marks Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
By Brit Devine
There is plenty of beat-writer talk of a 50/50-ish split between Woody Marks and newly acquired David Montgomery, but I'm not buying it for a second in the home opener against the Bills in what could be one of the most important games of the season.
Marks was one of the least-efficient backs in the running game last season by nearly every metric possible. As a rookie, he was thrust into a decent workload after Nick Chubb was injured, and he averaged a minuscule 3.6 yards per attempt.
The Texans traded a starting-caliber offensive lineman AND two draft picks (a 2026 4th-round; a 2027 7th-round) for Montgomery and then paid him a new contract on top of it. In no world should an inefficient-on-the-ground Marks come anywhere close to a 50/50 split in the run game, and certainly not in the home opener where the Texans will want to show off their new toy.
Montgomery is a much better option in the run game, while Marks would be better suited to a 3rd-down role, if needed.
The Bills' defensive style could be a thorn in our side on this one, as they tend to let teams run the ball reasonably well, but I'm banking on Marks being a relative afterthought in the run game to start the season.
Pick: Woody Marks Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Browns vs. Jaguars
KC Concepcion Over 3.5 Receptions (+105)
By Brit Devine
I'm buying into the rookie early on an offense that should feature a ton of short-to-intermediate throws in what will likely become a pass-heavy game script if the Browns fall behind early on the road.
KC Concepcion flashed his playmaking ability in the Browns' preseason opener, both in the receiving and running game. That should translate well into some designed screens and short routes to get the ball into his hands and allow him to make his mark after the catch.
At least from a coaching perspective, quick passes should take the decision making out of Deshaun Watson's hands and hopefully keep the big mistakes from happening in what will be his first start since 2024.
Concepcion looks like a true weapon with the ball in his hands based on camp reports and a small preseason sample, and I'm expecting some easy receptions and designed plays for him right out of the gate.
Pick: KC Concepcion Over 3.5 Receptions (+105)
Commanders vs. Eagles
Dontayvion Wicks Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
By Chris Prince
It looks like Dontayvion Wicks will open the season as WR2 for the Eagles after the departure of A.J. Brown, and with that being the case, this number is simply too low.
Wicks has looked dominant throughout the summer, and he's a guy we saw flashes from over his time in Green Bay. This is the biggest opportunity of his career, and he draws a very favorable matchup against the Commanders.
The Commanders were dreadful against wide receivers last season, giving up the 6th-most receiving yards per game. They did make some moves to improve their secondary, but it's nothing that makes me think they will become a matchup we need to avoid.
Also, the Eagles offense should look much better this season following the departure of former OC Kevin Patullo in favor of Sean Mannion.
Wicks should find himself in some favorable matchups in this game, with the defensive focus on Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.
At this number, I will be looking into ladders and alternates as well, as I think we might see Wicks have a big day against this Commanders defense.
Pick: Dontayvion Wicks Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Malik Willis Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
By Brit Devine
Not enough credit is being given to the rushing ability of Malik Willis out of the gate, as he averaged 58 yards on the ground per game over the past two seasons in three starts.
I'm expecting this number to climb into the high 30s or low 40s by game time, as Willis is undoubtedly going to be utilized as a true dual-threat QB with the highest weekly rushing upside in the league at the position.
Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels both have QB rushing props higher than this currently, which I think is a mistake by the books to open the season.
Pick: Malik Willis Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Packers vs. Vikings
Jordan Love Over 20.5 Completions (-102)
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on the completions prop for Jordan Love. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 24.87 completions, and the oddsmakers are implying 21.45.
The model believes there is a 72% chance he records at least 21 completions, so there is value on the over at -102. This play is good down to at least -168.
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
