Our football staff is focused on seven of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 1 on September 13.
First, we'll target Saints vs. Lions and Ravens vs. Colts in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a pair of picks for Commanders vs. Eagles and Packers vs. Vikings. We also have picks for Browns vs. Jaguars, Cardinals vs. Chargers, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for the Week 1 Sunday slate.
Download the Action Network app now for more NFL picks and analysis!
NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 1
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Saints vs Lions
I think the Over is the right way to look in this matchup.
While taking the Saints as home underdogs feels a little too trendy right now — especially considering how bad this team looked for stretches last season — the market isn't moving off the key -7 number for a reason.
When you look at the matchups on the field, plenty of points should be scored in this game.
The Lions are very thin in the secondary right now, dealing with multiple key absences, which should open up deep passing lanes for Kellen Moore's offense.
On the flip side, we know exactly what Jared Goff does when he is playing indoors on a fast track.
Even with a few moving parts on the offensive line, the Lions have far too many weapons for the Saints to keep them contained for four quarters.
With both defenses dealing with personnel and depth issues against two high-upside offenses, I expect this to turn into a back-and-forth track meet.
Pick: Over 49.5 (-115)
| | | | | |
Browns vs Jaguars
We've seen it over the years: guys who used to be good eventually lose it, and it's hard to trust your own eyes when you see someone look as incredibly inept as Deshaun Watson has.
To take a macro view, ownership would have probably cut him by now if not for his massive cap hit. Essentially, ownership is forcing them to start Watson, and he's just been a disaster.
On the other side, Jacksonville’s offensive line isn't great, but Liam Coen is a fantastic playcaller. He knows exactly how to mask an offensive line's deficiencies with well-designed screens and quick hitters to get the ball into his playmakers' hands.
You also have to factor in the extreme Florida humidity in September; historically, those Florida teams have a major conditioning advantage early in the year against opponents traveling down from the north.
The Browns might be frisky in rock-fight games later in November and December, but I don't think it happens here. Honestly, I think Cleveland could get boat-raced in this spot.
I am using the Jaguars in Survivor pools this week, and I love them to win this game outright.
Pick: Jaguars ML (Parlay Leg/Survivor)
| | | | | |
Ravens vs Colts
By Bet Labs
Our Bet Labs system titled "Steam Under Weeks 1-2" capitalizes on the predictable inefficiencies of September football by targeting inflated early-season totals that show sharp downward market movement.
In the opening weeks of the season, offensive rhythm is notoriously unreliable, and execution inside the red zone is often sloppy as units require live game reps to finalize their timing.
This systemic inefficiency is supported by recent historical data, as Week 1 unders have hit at a 66% clip (42-22) over the last four years, covering by an average margin of 2.5 points per game.
This matchup fits the system's criteria, backed by aggressive market steam dragging the opening total of 49.5 down to 47.5.
Public and sharp money alike are heavily aligned on this side, with 87% of the total bets and 89% of the overall money backing the under heading into the weekend.
On the field, neither starting quarterback — Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson — took snaps during the preseason, naturally introducing a degree of rust and passing game disconnect out of the gate.
Baltimore is also implementing a brand new offensive scheme guided by a playcaller who did not call plays last season. Compounding this transition, the Ravens are attempting to integrate an inexperienced interior offensive line, relying on a journeyman making his first career start at center alongside a rookie guard.
Trench vulnerabilities often stall early-season drives, forcing punts and keeping the clock moving. The historical profitability of early-season unders with sharp steam and distinct offensive transition periods for both franchises makes the Under worth a look in this spot.
Pick: Under 47.5 (-105)
| | | | | |
Cardinals vs Chargers
I love the coaching infrastructure the Chargers have in place right noe, and I think they are going to work absolute wizardry with this roster.
Justin Herbert is going to be fully unlocked in this system with Mike McDaniel running the show. With the creative play designs and weapons they have, they should be able to put up points and score at will.
The Cardinals' defense was extremely banged up all of last year, and they simply don't have the high-end talent to consistently get off the field.
Arizona's offense should be decent, and a few fluky turnovers could allow them to hang around to some extent. However, I expect this Chargers offense to hum beautifully from the opening snap.
I honestly don't think Los Angeles is going to punt very often in this game. They are going to be buttoned-up, firing on all cylinders, and ready to rock right out of the gates.
At anything under double digits, I will gladly lay the -9.5 with the Chargers at home.
Pick: Chargers -9.5 (-115)
| | | | | |
Commanders vs Eagles
By Bet Labs
Our Bet Labs system titled "Road 'Dog, Low Total After Bad Season" identifies undervalued road teams in the early weeks of the season by fading public recency bias.
The Commanders finished with a disappointing record of 5-12 last year, setting the stage for an inflated market price against a superior divisional opponent.
When teams that struggled the previous year hit the road in Week 1, oddsmakers often over-adjust the line based on the prior failures rather than the current roster's baseline.
In a game featuring a relatively low total of 44.5, catching a full six points is more valuable than it would be in a high-scoring shootout. Scoring drives are scarce, making it more difficult for favorites to stretch margins and pull away.
Washington enters this season hoping for bounce-back campaign from Jayden Daniels after reaching the NFC Championship Game his rookie year. He is paired with Kliff Kingsbury, an offensive coordinator with a proven track record of maximizing dual-threat upside and designing effective early-season scripts.
Defensively, the Commanders have gotten faster and younger in the offseason, theoretically closing down the open space that plagued their secondary throughout last year.
On the other sideline, the Eagles are also navigating their own schematic overhaul with a brand new offensive system led by Sean Mannion.
There is legitimate concern regarding how Jalen Hurts will adapt to this scheme, specifically when tasked with operating and throwing over the middle of the field.
This combination of a low projected point total, divisional familiarity, and Philly's offensive growing pains creates an optimal environment to back Washington as an undervalued road underdog.
Pick: Commanders +6 (-112)
| | | | | |
Packers vs Vikings
By Bet Labs
Our Bet Labs system titled "Early Season Upsets" zeros in on the inherent volatility of the NFL's opening weeks, which is the most profitable window to back underdogs before the betting market accurately adjusts to new rosters and coaching staffs.
This angle specifically targets divisional matchups, where deep-seated rivalries and schematic familiarity consistently neutralize the perceived talent gap between favorites and underdogs.
In Weeks 1-3, new offseason narratives often artificially inflate the price of the favorite, creating lucrative opportunities to target live underdogs capable of winning the game outright.
With the Vikings favored by just 1.5 points, this razor-thin spread indicates a near toss-up, making the Packers an ideal moneyline target.
While the Packers will miss Josh Jacobs, they boast explosive weapons on the perimeter, possessing the pure speed necessary to swing the momentum on a single explosive.
Conversely, the Vikings are fielding a defense with notable questions along their front seven. Minnesota's defensive line lost key contributors in the offseason, including their leading pass rusher, Jonathan Greenard, leaving its ability to generate pressure somewhat in doubt.
As a result, the Vikings will be reliant on Brian Flores' exotic blitz packages and complex schemes to manufacture disruption. If Green Bay’s offense can successfully identify those pressures pre-snap and protect the interior, the outside playmakers will face advantageous one-on-one coverage down the field.
Because early season expectations are masking the vulnerabilities in Minnesota's defensive front, grabbing the Packers at plus-money aligns with the system's core philosophy of attacking unproven favorites during the most unpredictable stretch of the NFL calendar.
Pick: Packers Moneyline (+105)
| | | | | |
