Every week in the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup bettors can exploit with the spread, total or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for NFL Week 1 on Sunday, Sept. 13.
Each week, I go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
In 2025, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4% win rate) with +44.1 units in profit for a 11% ROI. Although there was some regression in 2026, we still had decent results at 101-265 (27.5% win rate) with +36.4 units in profit for 9.9% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these bets, please use proper bankroll management. In each of the last two seasons, I was profitable in 13 of 18 weeks (26 of 36 overall) but there’s still an average of five weeks of the season where it wasn’t great.
For players listed in “VERDICT,” those are one-unit bets for each pick. But if a player is listed in “VERDICT” as a “sprinkle," then it is a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long-shot odds.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 1.
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NFL Week 1 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Buccaneers vs. Bengals
The Bengals' pass defense was actually a bit stronger on the outside than over the middle last season, and while you’d think that would lean to someone like TE Cade Otton, there's no chance I’m taking the ultimate “Cardio King” when he’s only +350.
Instead, I think we have to roll with WR Emeka Egbuka.
If you just used the opening five games of the 2025 season, you’d think Egbuka was going to be an All-Pro. The second-year WR finished with only six TDs last season, but scored five of them in the opening month of the season.
The Bucs have shown they will move him around the line of scrimmage as he still managed to play in the slot at a 37% rate last year.
I really tried with the Bengals. I wanted to make the case for why we should be looking at WR Tee Higgins, but at +125, that’s a hard sell for a TD bet.
Then I started considering the TE matchup and started looking at TE Mike Gesicki, but he’s also priced like a WR3 at +300.
You typically want to target Higgins when he is closer to +200 or Gesicki at +400 when it's a tougher matchup, as you can extract a bit of value, which I thought would be the case with the Buccaneers.
I’m actually a bit higher on the Buccaneers defense this season — they only allowed 14 TDs to WRs in 2025, which was top 10 in the NFL.
However, the Bengals offense is being priced as if they’re are playing the Jets or Titans, so until we see a shift back to common sense, I have to pass on Cincinnati TD scorers for Week 1.
VERDICT: Emeka Egbuka +210 | Pass on Bengals
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Browns vs. Jaguars
In any given week last season, I watched nearly 25+ hours of football and can safely say, maybe 10 minutes per week is watching the Browns.
The offense was a tough watch, and with them announcing that QB Deshaun Watson will be starting, my hopes to find value for a Browns TD scorer are dwindling.
The lone bright spot last season was rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr., who scored six TDs and had five of those over the final five games of the season. That may not seem all that impressive to most, but when you consider the fact that he had QB Shadeur Sanders throwing him the football, it’s insane that Fannin managed to be as productive as he was.
Fannin was the whole passing offense as a rookie. He led the team in targets per route run and was second in route participation behind only WR Jerry Jeudy.
I’m not sure how many points the Browns can actually score in this matchup given they’re 8.5-point underdogs with an implied team total of 13.5, but if they can get into scoring range, I fully expect Fannin to see a couple looks against an overrated Jaguars secondary that ranked fifth in zone coverage rate last season.
The Jaguars are certainly interesting this year because a bettor could make a case for nearly every pass catcher, but I think for this one, we need to keep it simple and take Bhayshul Tuten at +140.
My initial lean was WR Jakobi Meyers because the passing offense took off last year after his arrival. But now, the emergence of WR Parker Washington has given me doubts on who is “the guy,” so I’d rather see it shake out in Week 1 and make a better choice next week.
As for Tuten, he’s expected to take over the role from RB Travis Etienne — Tuten showed flashes in his rookie year with five rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns.
I know there’s a chance of the committee with RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., but he wasn’t much of a passing threat with Washington last year, and I still think Tuten will get the first cracks near the goal line to punch it in.
VERDICT: Harold Fannin +425 | Bhayshul Tuten +145
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Ravens vs. Colts
It’s hard to envision the Colts offense getting off to the hot start it did last year, but the one player I’m always going to consider is TE Tyler Warren. The second-year pass-catcher managed to have four receiving TDs with Daniel Jones at QB, but once he got hurt, the production dropped off a cliff.
With the departure of WR Michael Pittman to Pittsburgh and WR Alec Pierce dealing with injury in the offseason, I’d bank on Warren to continue to see a 90% snap rate with decent target share against the Ravens.
Plus, we could see Warren in the “Tush Push” near the goal line, especially since I don’t expect Jones to be risky and scramble near the end zone.
The Ravens offense was abysmal last year with a compromised Lamar Jackson, but the one player I keep coming back to WR Rashod Bateman.
In 2024, Bateman was a TD stud and scored nine receiving TDs in 17 games, but in 2025, it went to hell. Bateman got hurt and was dealing with the injury all season while Lamar Jackson also got hurt.
With WR Devontez Walker dealing with injury and WR Ja'Kobi Lane being a rookie, I’ll lean on Bateman here.
That being said, if TE Mark Andrews gets to +200 or better, he’d be a decent look here as well.
VERDICT: Tyler Warren +230 | Rashod Bateman +350
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Falcons vs. Steelers
I got laughed at for suggesting that we bet the Steelers in Survivor Contests in Week 1, and honestly, I feel even stronger about that stance now.
The Falcons are rolling into Pittsburgh with Cooper Rush at quarterback, and I think this has disaster written all over it for Atlanta. The one bright spot is TE Kyle Pitts, who may as well be the WR2 in this offense.
The snap rates and route participation has never been the issue for Pitts — he typically sees the high 80s for percentages in those metrics. It was just the quarterbacks playing for the Falcons wouldn’t target him, so he essentially is out there getting cardio.
That started to change last season with Kirk Cousins at QB, and I think Rush will lean heavily on Pitts in this matchup.
The Steelers were bottom-10 in defensive DVOA vs. TEs last year, while ranking bottom-five in catches, yards and touchdowns to the position.
The Steelers actually have a few options worth considering like RB Rico Dowdle (+130) or WR DK Metcalf (+200), but I think TE Pat Freiermuth is the way to go at +350.
Freiermuth saw his production take a dip last year with only four TDs and his lowest target rate in five seasons, but he may be in line for a bigger role this year.
TE Jonnu Smith is no longer on the ream, and TE Darnell Washington has mostly been used as a blocker in his career, even though he’s an insane mismatch for defenses.
The Steelers ran 12 and 13 personnel at some of the highest rates in the NFL last year, and will likely want to have two TEs on the field to help protect old man Aaron Rodgers.
VERDICT: Kyle Pitts +375 | Pat Freiermuth +375
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Bills vs. Texans
I expect the Texans defense to be fierce, which makes me hesitant on Bills TD scorers in Week 1.
When these teams matched up last year, the Bills offense looked broken — Josh Allen threw two interceptions and no passing TDs.
I think the Bills should be able to rebound from that effort, and I have to go with TE Dalton Kincaid in this spot. The pass-catching TE has yet to be a full-time player in the NFL, but when he’s on the field, he’s targeted heavily by Allen.
The Texans' secondary tends to play a top-10 rate of zone each week with a bit more looks of single-high safety, which tends to lean toward Kincaid, who led the team in TPRR against both of those coverages.
Given the Texans allowed 8 TDs to TEs last season compared to just 10 to WRs, this might be the spot where the Bills can expose that slight weakness.
For the Texans, I was initially looking at WR Nico Collins, but after the injuries to Jayden Higgins and Tank Dell, I decided to pivot and take Kayshon Boutte.
We know Boutte can get open downfield and win in the end zone. We saw it last year in the playoffs when he scored a highlight-reel TD against All-Pro CB Derek Stingley Jr. as a member of the Patriots.
The opportunity to see legit snaps and targets is there for Boutte, and while the Bills secondary has been a strength in recent years, I think they’ll be so focussed on neutralizing Collins that Boutte will see some 1-on-1 looks in the end zone.
VERDICT: Kayshon Boutte +370 | Dalton Kincaid +310
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Bears vs. Panthers
It took a while for him to get going, but I love Panthers WR Jalen Coker. The third-year WR started slow last year after dealing with an injury, but he really took off over the last month of the season.
Coker saw an 85% snap rate over the final month with 18 targets and two touchdowns. He really shined in the playoffs, where he caught a TD and saw three end zone targets.
Although the Bears secondary can be feisty, they did allow the third-most TDs to WRs last year and Coker would likely avoid the tougher matchup on the outside with Bears CB Jaylon Johnson since he lines up in the slot at nearly a 60% rate.
I want to buy into the Luther Burden hype, but his TD prices have gone too far. Burden only had two TDs last season, but with the departure of DJ Moore and all the offseason hype, the best you can get is around +175.
Instead, I’d rather just pivot to the Bears QB Caleb Williams in this spot.
The Panthers ranked 24th in defensive DVOA vs. the run last season and bottom-five in rushing TDs allowed.
With his scrambling ability and movement in the pocket, I think Williams has a great matchup to score with odds that should be closer to +350.
VERDICT: Jalen Coker +320 | Caleb Williams +500
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Jets vs. Titans
A starting TE at +600 to score a TD? In this economy?
I’m not super high on the Titans offense this season, but having TE Gunnar Helm at +600 is wild to me.
Helm still scored two touchdowns in a broken offense last year, and TE Chig Okonkwo is now with the Commanders.
The Jets defense isn’t scaring anyone. They ranked 29th in defensive DVOA vs. TEs last year with 11 TDs allowed to the position.
Entering his second year and as the TE1 ahead of Daniel Bellinger (who mostly blocks), Helm is prime for a breakout, and this is the week to back him to score since next week against the Eagles will likely be a blowout.
I’d play Helm down to +475.
QB Geno Smith was abysmal last year with the Raiders and I’m surprised he even has a job. The interceptions were out of control and completely killed drives.
Still, somehow, he’s an improvement over the likes of Justin Fields, which means I can kind of trust Geno to be accurate enough to target his top receiver.
That’s why I’m going with WR Garrett Wilson, who had four TDs in seven games in spite of the Jets’ QB play.
The Titans secondary is completely unproven, and last year ranked 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass, while ranking last vs. WR1s.
VERDICT: Gunnar Helm +600 | Garrett Wilson +250
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Saints vs. Lions
There’s a lot of promise for the Saints offense this year as QB Tyler Shough continues to progress, but let’s pump the brakes on this becoming an electric offense.
WR Chris Olave and RB Travis Etienne should get a lot of cracks to score but with both priced at +150 or lower, I’d rather pivot to another WR that’s had some moments, and that’s Devaughn Vele at +380.
Vele only caught two TDs last season, but in his final four games of the year (before he got injured), he was becoming a reliable target in this offense, ranking second on the Saints in total routes run and TPRR.
If you don’t want to go with a long shot and prefer to stick with Olave, I totally get it, but Vele has the physical profile to be a legit red-zone weapon.
The Lions offense typically has a premium on its top players like Jahmyr Gibbs or Amon-Ra St.Brown, so betting them to score touchdowns is mostly void of value.
The only Lion I’m currently showing value on is WR2 Jameson Williams at +190. Williams has seen his target share and route participation increase each season in the NFL and he has the speed to beat nearly any defense down the field.
I fully expect the Lions to draw up at least two deep targets to Williams and potentially let him have a couple carries in the backfield to give Gibbs a breather without a reliable RB2.
VERDICT: Devaughn Vele +380 | Jameson Williams +190
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Cardinals vs. Chargers
I’m trying to be a good sport here and give some analysis or data to back up my picks, but much like Justin Jefferson with the Vikings, these TD odds for Cardinals TE Trey McBride are flat out disrespectful.
The reigning All-Pro and top-two TE (and he’s not two) just came off a MASSIVE season where it didn’t matter who the opponent was — QB Jacoby Brissett would spam McBride with targets.
Now, the Chargers obviously know that, and I expect Derwin James to shadow McBride when possible, but the fact remains that he averaged 10+ targets per game, while scoring a TD in eight of Brissett’s 12 starts.
If you prefer to take Marvin Harrison Jr.at +300 or above, I can get on board with that too, but McBride is always going to be my choice if we’re getting +200 or better.
I initially was looking at TE Charlie Kolar for the Chargers, as he was signed in the offseason away from the Ravens, but then they also signed TE David Njoku to the squad, which has me twisted on which way to go.
Well, after speaking with Sean Koerner and doing the Touchdown Show for Week 1, the answer was clear all along: TE Oronde Gadsden at +600.
Now, Gadsden only had three TDs last year, but for a three-week period, you could’ve argued he was a top-five TE in the NFL.
Koerner did acknowledge that he may see a reduction in playing time in Mike McDaniel’s system, but the upside is there and getting it at +650 is the way to go.
Then, once we know how the TE room shakes out, we can figure out which way to go with the Chargers in Week 2.
VERDICT: Trey McBride +220 | Oronde Gadsden +600
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Dolphins vs. Raiders
On paper, this looks like a dog-crap matchup — and in real life, it probably is too.
I don’t expect much from the Raiders with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, but to his credit, he will sling the football.
Now, is it always to his own player? That’s a different discussion, but one noticeable trend with Cousins last year with the Falcons is he liked to target pass catchers over the middle and in the slot.
So with Brock Bowers out, let’s take the starting slot receiver in Jack Bech. He was a second-round pick by the Raiders last season and really saw his snaps and routes go up near the end of the season.
With the absence of Bowers and WR Tre Tucker and TE Michael Mayer down to +250 or lower, I’d rather take a dart throw on Bech to make an impact early against a slightly easier matchup.
Much like the Raiders, good luck naming a wide receiver on the Dolphins.
The Fins moved on from both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle this offseason, and that will likely leave QB Malik Willis with few options to lean on for explosive plays.
If you’re betting a Dolphins TD in this one, I think it’s Willis or nothing. It’s rare to get a scrambling quarterback with a price this high, especially against a Raiders defense that isn’t scaring anyone.
The last time we saw Willis start a game, he ran for two touchdowns against the Ravens and showed off his ability to scramble in the red zone.
Let’s ride with Willis for Week 1 and see how the rest of the offense shakes out going forward.
VERDICT: Jack Bech +800 | Malik Willis +340
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Commanders vs. Eagles
The idea that the passing offense of the Eagles is a bit of an unknown now with A.J. Brown gone seems a bit foolish to me. We’ve seen him miss time in each of the last two seasons, and the player that tends to see a decent boost in his absence is TE Dallas Goedert.
Goedert had 11 TDs last season, and in the game where Brown missed, he scored twice.
We’ve seen the Eagles line up for the tush push, and instead of QB Jalen Hurts mashing it in, Goedert would just take the handoff or be left wide open for an easy TD. We saw that in the playoff game against the 49ers where he scored twice.
At +230, this is the best option on the Eagles this week.
All it takes is one! That’s what I keep telling myself when I look at WR Terry McLaurin’s TD odds against this defense.
Washington's deep-ball threat has made a living off bodying smaller cornerbacks in the end zone, but this week, CB Quinyon Mitchell may have something to say about that. Mitchell is one of the few DBs that will make me hesitate when considering a top WR.
The price on McLaurin is good at +270. Getting any WR1 at +200 or better with a competent quarterback is usually a decent option, so we roll with it for this week.
VERDICT: Dallas Goedert +240 | Terry McLaurin +270
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Packers vs. Vikings
Am I the only one who thinks Justin Jefferson priced at +180 to score a touchdown is absurd?
I typically bet Jordan Addison TD props given the usual price discrepancies, but Jefferson is a top-five WR in the NFL. He has commanded nearly a 30% target share in each of the last four seasons. This should be closer to +130 given the expected improvement at quarterback with Kyler Murray.
I don’t need to spew all the details on why JJettas is a good football player — and until the TD prices change, we’ll be sticking with Jefferson to score.
In the coming weeks, we may pivot to one of my faves in WR Jauan Jennings (+350 in Week 1), but for now, we stick with Jefferson until these prices change.
For the Packers, I wanted to get a good look at how TE Tucker Kraft is recovering before I feel comfortable betting him, but one WR that I had to lock in was Christian Watson at +230.
The Packers gave him an extension this offseason while letting WR Romeo Doubs move on, so Watson is the de facto WR1 now.
I fully expect all of his receiver metrics to go up this year (like route participation and target share), and while historically he has been an injury risk, he did still manage to score six TDs in 10 games last season — and he comes into the season without carrying an injury tag.
With RB Josh Jacobs out, I expect the Packers to lean a bit more to the pass in this one. Especially if the Vikings throw a ton of blitzes at QB Jordan Love.
When Love was blitzed last season, Watson usually saw his TPRR and first-read target share go up, so let’s roll with it.
VERDICT: Justin Jefferson +180 | Christian Watson +230
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