NFL Draft Predictions: How to Bet the Chiefs’ First Position Pick in 2024
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid.
The defending Super Bowl champions are back in the realm of mere mortals where losing starting contributors is commonplace. The Chiefs have several needs to fill in this year’s 2024 NFL Draft, and it will be fascinating to see where they turn.
In this article, I’ll break down the Chiefs’ options with their first-round pick at No. 32 overall.
Chiefs Current Draft Odds
Three positions have emerged as the most likely for the Chiefs to select in the first round. Here are the current odds from DraftKings as of April 22:
| Position | Odds |
|---|---|
| Wide Receiver | -105 |
| Offensive Lineman | 140 |
| Cornerback | 400 |
| Defensive Lineman | 1000 |
| Tight End | 3000 |
| Safety | 4000 |
| Linebacker | 4000 |
With those odds in mind, let’s break down some of the Chiefs’ options at those top three positions.
Wide Receiver Options
Steam has hit the under on the wide receiver market in the first round, with DraftKings listing -240 odds on under 6.5 first-round wide receivers.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze are expected to go in the top-10 picks, but after those three, there’s a significant drop-off to the rest of the class.
Second-year wide receiver Rashee Rice was arrested on eight felony charges for starting a multi-car crash, leading to heavy speculation that the Chiefs could take a wide receiver in the first round.
However, general manager Brett Veach said the Chiefs “have a lot of needs" and don’t feel strong-armed into taking a receiver given “it’s one of the deeper classes” and “there’s a large group of receivers in the first 50 picks.”
I believe the Chiefs can get a receiver in the second or third round who can produce at a similar level to whomever they would draft at the end of the first round.
Assuming Brian Thomas Jr. is off the board, the Chiefs could choose between Texas receivers Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy. Both have red flags in different areas, and I don’t see either as reasonable first-round investments.
Mitchell’s production profile is concerning, as he ranked just 100th out of 121 qualified receivers in yards per route run last season. Worthy, meanwhile, possesses plenty of speed, but his work at the catch point leaves some to be desired. His skill set overlaps with Marquise Brown, whom the Chiefs brought in this offseason.
Offensive Line Options
The first round is expected to be dominated by offensive linemen, with steam hitting over 9.5 offensive linemen.
The market has also backed the Chiefs taking an offensive lineman with their first pick. I expect mid-first-round prospects like Graham Barton, Tyler Guyton and Amarius Mims to be off the board, but there are still solid options who should be there at the 32nd pick.
Jordan Morgan possesses impressive movement skills and can play tackle or guard. Jackson Powers-Johnson would provide plenty of physicality to the interior offensive line. Kingsley Suamataia is a high-upside developmental tackle with some of the best athletic traits at the position in this class.
Wanya Morris, the Chiefs’ projected starter at left tackle, is a 2023 third-round pick. By PFF grades, he ranked just 66th out of 85 qualified tackles. The Chiefs could look to upgrade that position with their first pick in the draft.
They could also move center Creed Humphrey to guard after some difficulties accurately snapping the football last season.
Cornerback Options
The Chiefs also traded cornerback L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans this offseason after he ranked sixth among qualified corners with a 66.0 Passer Rating Allowed in coverage, per PFF. Sneed was an All-Pro snub and won’t be easy to replace.
One player who could help ease that loss would be Kool-Aid McKinstry, who possesses excellent balance and intuition in coverage. As a freshman, McKinstry was starting for Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide, and his intelligence should carry over to the NFL. Nate Wiggins could also slide to pick No. 32, depending on how teams evaluate his unique size-speed profile.
If the Chiefs fall in love with someone like Cooper DeJean, they could also make a trade up as they did for Trent McDuffie back in 2022. DeJean can fill various roles in the defense and tested with elite numbers at the Iowa pro day.
Final Verdict
The Chiefs have plenty of options with their first pick in the NFL Draft, and you shouldn’t feel like they’re locked into a wide receiver despite the ongoing situation with Rice.
DraftKings is offering 4-1 odds on Kansas City to take a cornerback with their first pick, which strikes me as solid value, while I’d also be looking for 2-1 or better odds on an offensive lineman.
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