NFL Live Betting Week 12: How We’re Live Betting Thanksgiving

We have the usual three-game Thanksgiving slate this week, with a full day of football starting at 12:30 p.m. ET. We'll be keeping an eye on all three games this week, looking for any potential live betting opportunities.

While we can't promise every game will provide us one, here are the angles we'll be watching for NFL live betting on Thanksgiving Day.

NFL Live Betting for Thanksgiving

49ers at Seahawks: Over, Probably

We're live on Bet What Happens Live! with Dr. Nick, and our first live bet is a player prop, on Geno Smith under 29.5 pass attempts. Our second live bet is on the other QB in this game, as we're going over 205.5 passing yards for Brock Purdy.

As for the live total, we are in fact on the live over here, snagging over 47 at Caesars when the rest of the market is at 47.5 at halftime. Join us live as we keep breaking down our live bets.

Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:

The 49ers play slow, but their uber-efficient offense ranks top three in DVOA both rushing and passing. They should be able to score at a fairly consistent rate regardless of the game flow here, leading to Seattle determining how this one plays out.

That makes things tricky, as Seattle performs better when throwing the ball — but the 49ers' defensive strength is also through the air. That should be exacerbated this week with Seattle missing starting running back Kenneth Walker, though rookie replacement Zach Charbonnet is only a slight step down. To add to the confusion, Geno Smith is dealing with some type of mild injury to his throwing arm, though it's unclear the nature or severity of the issue.

From a pace standpoint, we'd expect a slower game while it remains close, but a fast one with either team in the lead. However, San Francisco's big-play ability makes pace less important, as they can score from anywhere on a small number of plays. On the other hand, Seattle is faster than average in all scenarios — but especially when trailing.

Therefore, the best-case scenario here is San Francisco leading a low-scoring game, where Smith also appears to be close to full strength. That's clearly asking a lot to happen all at once, but we can dream. Outside of that, we'll need to play it by ear.

The Thanksgiving NFL Live Bets We've Already Made

Packers at Lions: Under With a (Big) Lions Lead, Over Otherwise — LIVE BET MADE, Over 53.5 (+102, FanDuel)

This one has somehow both been surprising and gone exactly as many might have expected, with the Lions somehow falling behind big against the Packers on Thanksgiving Day. There's still a lot of football to be played, though, and with Detroit down, this fits into our alternate live betting scenario for this one. As a live bettor and as a Lions fan, let's hope Jared Goff & Co. can start putting some points on the board in the second half.

Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:

Both teams in the early game run the ball at a slightly higher clip than expected, with Detroit having the lower Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) of the pair. They were even more run-focused much of the year, but injuries to both primary running backs forced them to lean on the pass for a few weeks in the middle of the season. Still, the takeaway here is that they want to play slow, ball-control football if it all possible.

That gives us the fastest combined pace if Detroit falls behind, with all other scenarios playing slower than average. The Lions offense should find roughly equal success whether passing or throwing — they're balanced offensively while the Packers defense is equally bad in both phases. However, throwing the ball is clearly more efficient on the whole, so a game where Detroit is playing catch up should lead to more points.

Of course, the likeliest scenario is that the favored Lions control this one fairly easily. In that case, they'll look to grind things out on the ground, rather than continue to attack the Packers. Green Bay's offense isn't especially threatening, so there's no reason to try to run up the score in a hurry.

None of these leans are especially strong, though. That means we'll need the scenario to align with some movement to the 47-point pregame total before pulling the trigger. Also keep an eye for any fluky situations that lead to more or less points than we'd expect, as anything else to push us in a certain direction would be helpful.

Use our BetMGM bonus code for bonus bets before making your Packers vs Lions pick.

Commanders at Cowboys: Under Once Dallas Takes Over — NO BET MADE

While we could probably phrase this header as "if" Dallas takes over, let's be real. Dallas has been on a tear over the last month, with three wins of more than 20 points in the last four weeks. Dak Prescott has barely seen the field in the fourth quarter of games, as the Cowboys wrap things up early.

They're favored by roughly 12 against their divisional "rivals" the Commanders, with little hope for Washington to keep this competitive. The Commanders had a bad pass defense, then traded away their two best players in edge rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Now they have a brutal pass defense that ranks dead last in DVOA.

That means Dallas is likely to have their way with Washington as long as they choose to stay aggressive. They've pivoted to an extremely pass-heavy approach in recent weeks, which is likely to continue here. However, if and when they decide to lean on the run, they'll have a tougher time against the Commanders' top-10 rushing defense by DVOA.

While that ranking was mostly earned with Sweat and Young on the team, Washington is still far better at defending the run. Dallas has also been inefficient running the ball, mostly thanks to a stale scheme that involves running Tony Pollard directly up the middle and into the back of his offensive linemen.

On the other side of the ball, it's hard to see Sam Howell getting much going against the Cowboys' top-five pass defense, especially given the Commanders' woes in pass protection. Dallas ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate on the season, while Washington ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate allowed.

The key here will be the timing, as we'll need to figure out roughly when Dallas decides they're comfortable with their lead. Movement to the pregame line isn't especially important, as long as the new total is considerably higher than the amount of points currently on the board. We'll be targeting a lead of 20+ for Dallas as the sweet spot, but need to be extremely flexible with trying to catch the best number at the best time.

If, by some miracle, this one stays competitive, we'd lean to the over. Close games are the one scenario that lead to a faster pace, and Washington should be more efficient when running the ball.

Ready to get in on the NFL betting action in North Carolina? You’ll soon be able to join in on NC sports betting, as the state is expected to come online in 2024.

How We Approach Live Betting in General

The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.

The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.

Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.

Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.