NFL Picks for Week 3: Bet or Wait Using Our Luck Rankings Model
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Our Action Network NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- At least 50% lower Luck% in the Luck Rankings.
Overall, these teams are 100-57-6 (63.2%) since the start of the 2018 season against the closing spread, which is how we grade them for consistency.
In Week 2, the nine teams that met at least one of the two thresholds went 4-3-2 ATS (55.6%).
However, if you timed the market correctly, it was possible to go 6-3 ATS. By making midweek bets on the Vikings at anywhere from +7.5 to +6.5 instead of the +6 closing line, and the Panthers at +3.5 instead of the +3 closing line, the two pushes could have been avoided.
I was able to grab Minnesota at +7.5 on Tuesday and tracked it in the Action App, but I wasn't able to time the Panthers +3.5. I also avoided playing the Cowboys and Broncos, who went 1-1 ATS, so my personal Week 2 record was 4-2-1.
By using our PRO Projections and PRO Report in conjunction with Luck Rankings, I was able to get positive closing line value in all but one game.
With that thought in mind, I figured I'd do a pass/wait/play segment to time the market on these Luck Matchups as best as possible each week.
So, here's the first installment of the Luck Matchups pass/wait/play.
The Patriots are 32nd in our Luck Rankings while the Jets are seventh, meaning these two teams have a Luck Difference of 25. The Luck Gap of 95.2% is the highest of the week. That means we can feel relatively comfortable in waiting for the closing line, especially because the key metrics to look at are a bit conflicting.
While the Patriots are taking on 76% of the tickets and 81% of the money, there's been some sharp action on the Jets at +3 as well as PRO Systems other than the Luck Rankings that favor both the Jets and the Patriots. Our PRO Projections also show that the biggest edge of the week is actually siding with the Jets at +3, so this is a good spot to wait and see if this line tightens up.
Ultimately, I like the Patriots in this spot. Bill Belichick is 4-0 ATS against Zach Wilson, with the average margin of victory coming by 18 points. That includes Expected Score margins of 12.5, 22.3, 12.2 and 11.6 all in favor of New England. In other words, none of these games have been close in terms of true performance.
It seems this game may bounce back and forth between 2.5 and 3, so grab the hook now in case this settles into Patriots -3.
Verdict: Bet Patriots -2.5
With a Luck Differential of 28 and a Luck Gap of 89.5%, this is also a premium luck game with the Broncos as the unlucky team. It's also a bit of a Pros vs. Joes game — the Dolphins are taking on 78% of the tickets but just 34% of the money, as the bigger money is on the Broncos.
It was possible to grab the Broncos at +7 earlier in the week, and while the public is all over the Dolphins at +6.5, the big money has pushed this line down to +6 in some places.
While it's likely the key number of +7 is gone, I want to get in now before it possibly moves to Broncos +6.
Verdict: Bet Broncos +6.5
The Luck Differential of 15 between these teams does not meet the threshold of 24 or more, but the Luck Gap of 54% is just above the 50% threshold to warrant calling this a Luck Matchup.
We definitely want to be sensitive to the market as there's just enough luck discrepancy between the Bills and Commanders to consider it as a factor. Right now, both the public and the pros are on the Bills, and some books are juicing this 6.5 slightly toward Buffalo as well, meaning we can reasonably anticipate this getting to the key number of 7.
That means if you like the Bills, like I do, grab the hook now.
Verdict: Bet Bills -6.5
The only unlucky home team of the week is the Browns, who are 14 places lower in our Luck Rankings than the Titans, with a Luck Gap of 53.9% also putting this barely above just one of our two criteria.
Home teams have tended to fare worse, hitting at just a 56% rate compared to the 71.8% rate for away teams. I have a few theories as to why, but suffice it to say we're in the narrowest of spots for the luck factor to play a role for the Browns.
This game moved quickly from 4.5 to 3, where it's settled in for more than 24 hours now.
According to our PRO Projections, this should be about a field-goal game, so with luck a minimal factor as well, this seems like a good spot to pass as I don't see this getting down to -2, where it would become bettable for the Browns.
Verdict: Pass
The Expected Score metric that powers our Luck Rankings can also be used to look at totals. This game has a Luck Total of -11.0, putting it past our threshold of -10 for after Week 3.
The problem? It isn't after Week 3 yet. But there are other reasons to like the under here, chiefly that Sean Koerner projects this game around 44.5. Additionally, referee Adrian Hill will be officiating this game. Games he officiates tend to play toward the under due to his crew's propensity of calling penalties against the offense at a higher rate than average.
The big money is on the under despite the predictable public over money, so I'm happy to take this now.
Verdict: Bet Under 46
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