Luck-Driven NFL Power Rankings: Eagles, Buccaneers Top List for Week 3
Getty Images. Pictured: Rhamondre Stevenson (left) and Jalen Hurts.
Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in ahead of Week 3.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
After two weeks, the Eagles remain atop the Luck Rankings with the Buccaneers moving into second. In a twist of fate, these two teams face each other in Week 3, meaning the winner of that game will likely end up as the luckiest team entering Week 4. The Miami Dolphins round out the luck podium in third place.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Last week, unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings, or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — went 4-3-2 against the spread (ATS). Overall, that moves unlucky teams to 100-57-6 (63.2%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 3.
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage.
NFL Week 3 Luck Rankings
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48.81% | |
| 2 | 46% | |
| 3 | 43.17% | |
| 4 | 32.27% | |
| 5 | 29.99% | |
| 6 | 29.8% | |
| 7 | 28.38% | |
| 8 | 27.8% | |
| 9 | 25.13% | |
| 10 | 24.64% | |
| 11 | 19.61% | |
| 12 | 17.59% | |
| 13 | 17.46% | |
| 14 | 13.95% | |
| 15 | 11.03% | |
| 16 | 7.79% | |
| 17 | 5.22% | |
| 18 | 2.13% | |
| 19 | -1.04% | |
| 20 | -3.65% | |
| 21 | -8.9% | |
| 22 | -21.89% | |
| 23 | -23.01% | |
| 24 | -28.9% | |
| 25 | -29.4% | |
| 26 | -32.38% | |
| 27 | -36.92% | |
| 28 | -40.42% | |
| 29 | -41.07% | |
| 30 | -46.09% | |
| 31 | -46.35% | |
| 32 | -66.77% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were the luckiest team in Week 1 by putting the week's worst bad beat on the Patriots. Then, Philadelphia recovered all five of the fumbles, including four by the Vikings, in their Week 2 win on Thursday Night Football over Minnesota. That fumble luck isn't likely to continue.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers started their season by getting lucky in Week 1 against the Vikings. Minnesota out-gained Tampa Bay by more than 120 yards on offense, but three turnovers were Minnesota's undoing, two of which came in Bucs territory. Then, in Week 2, Tampa Bay beat the Chicago Bears 27-17, but the Expected Score metric that powers the Luck Rankings had this game as closer to a 21-18 Buccaneers win.
3. Miami Dolphins
Miami eked out a close one-score win over the Chargers in Week 1 in a game that played close to a coin flip, with a slight nod to the Dolphins in expected score. The real luck for Miami came in Week 2 when they dished out yet another bad beat to the Patriots. New England's first, second, fourth, sixth, seventh and 11th drives on offense all reached Dolphins territory, but the Pats came away with just three points from those six drives instead of nearly 18 expected.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Cleveland Browns
The Browns are in the bottom three of the Luck Rankings despite having one win this season. Amazingly, that means seven winless teams have been luckier than Cleveland this season. The Browns defense held both the Bengals and the Steelers to sub-30 success rates. Unfortunately for Cleveland, a pick-six on the first play of the game and fumble recovery for a touchdown is how Pittsburgh pulled off the win to close Week 2 on Monday Night Football.
31. Denver Broncos
Denver was one of five teams in Week 1 to lose when the Expected Score had them winning. The Broncos' 17-16 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders should have been more like an 18-15 win in no small part thanks to a missed field goal and missed extra point by kicker Will Lutz. In Week 2, Denver again lost by less than a field goal. The Broncos were unable to convert a 2-point conversion to send their loss to the Commanders to overtime. Two one-score losses by a combined three points will put you near the bottom of the Luck Rankings, for sure.
32. New England Patriots
In no surprise, as victims of Week 1's worst beat and the second-worst beat in Week 2, the Patriots have been the NFL's unluckiest team this season. New England's two one-score losses were by a wider 12-point margin than Denver, but the Pats outplayed the Eagles in Week 1 and stalled out in Dolphins territory on six offensive drives that amassed a total of three points. Regression hints that New England will close out some more drives going forward.
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