NFL Anytime Touchdown Props for Week 9: Davante Adams, Tommy Tremble, More
Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images. Pictured: Davante Adams.
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Here's my look for NFL Week 9 Anytime Touchdown market.
Week 9 Anytime Touchdown Previews
Two of the most explosive offenses in the league … but yeah, let’s have them play in Germany? Regardless of how you feel about this matchup and where it’s located, the top of the oddsboard is steamed.
The first name that comes to mind is Jaylen Waddle — only +160 odds, but he has three touchdowns in the last four games and there will be less focus on him than Tyreek Hill (-120), who will likely be out for blood in a revenge game spot.
For the Chiefs, this may seem like a wild pick considering he probably cost Kansas City the game vs. Broncos, but I love the idea of Mecole Hardman at +550. He's had his best years with K.C. and he has been used for long and short passes, along with carries in the backfield.
Verdict: Bet Jaylen Waddle +160 and Mecole Hardman +700.
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Pour one out for Vikings WRs, Kirk Cousins and, likely, the Minnesota passing game. It’s done for 2023.
Unless you want to go with TJ Hockenson since the Falcons have allowed three TDs to tight ends this season and are also bottom 10 in receptions and receiving yards to the position. With Jaren Hall at quarterback, he's going to need a safety blanket so Hock fits the bill.
I’d consider a long shot for the Falcons like Van Jefferson at +500. He hasn’t really made an impact since coming from the Rams but he’s playing more snaps than Mack Hollins.
With Taylor Heinicke at QB, I can at least now consider Falcons pass-catchers instead of just praying for Desmond Ridder to complete a pass.
Verdict: Bet TJ Hockenson at +330 and sprinkle on Van Jefferson +500.
Whether it’s Kyler Murray or Clayton Tune at QB for the Cardinals, it doesn’t really matter because the Browns' defensive line is coming for skulls. Cleveland leads the NFL in pressure rate despite giving 65 points allowed over the last two weeks.
I don’t expect a ton of scoring, but if I’m betting touchdowns, the list starts and stops with Kareem Hunt. Jerome Ford has taken a backseat and Pierre Strong Jr. isn’t the quality of pass-catcher that Hunt is.
Considering that the Cardinals are last in the NFL in touchdowns allowed to running backs (12), the Browns' running game should be in for a decent game.
Verdict: Bet Kareem Hunt TD at +150.
Whether its Brett Rypien or Matthew Stafford, I can’t get behind the Rams offense right now.
The offensive line is allowing too many sacks and receivers like Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua aren’t getting into the end zone so their TD odds aren't exactly enticing (+115 and +160, respectively).
For Green Bay, the time is now for Luke Musgrave. The Rams are 31st in both touchdowns allowed and receiving yards allowed to tight ends.
Commanders vs. Patriots
I fully expect QB Sam Howell to throw a couple interceptions, get sacked a bunch and for the Patriots defense to cause pressure.
That being said, the Patriots can still be thrown on and Howell, to his credit, has shown he can exploit certain defenses. With seven passing touchdowns in his last three games, I’m immediately going to Jahan Dotson at +333.
The Pats have allowed nine TDs to WRs this year and I expect them to do everything they can to take away Terry McLaurin.
Verdict: Bet Jahan Dotson TD +333. Throw a dart on TE Pharaoh Brown at +1900.
As cool as Tyson Bagent’s dad is, the cool gene may have stopped there.
Bagent has a great story — but being a great QB? Not so much. That being said, DJ Moore is the guy we want if we’re betting Chicago TD scorers. He leads the team in targets and touchdown catches. He’s also pretty familiar with the Saints defense coming from Carolina.
For the Saints, just target all their WRs, specifically Chris Olave. The second-year wideout only has one TD this season but continues to get the lion's share of targets with 10-plus in five of eight games. We hit Rasheed Shaheed last week at +333, but now he’s below +300 so we pass until next time.
The Ravens are likely the Seahawks' toughest opponent of the season thus far. Baltimore's defense hasn’t given up a lot this year and Geno Smith has had some turnover issues recently.
That’s why I think this will be the Lamar Jackson show. He leads the team in red-zone carries with 19, which is 13th in the NFL. Has scored three TDs in three home games. The Seahawks' run defense is a bit overrated when you look at their schedule and the circumstances.
For Seattle, the one thing I can’t deny is that the passing game still looks solid with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. For this game, you have to go with Metcalf if sportsbooks are offering odds over +200. The squeaky wheel theory is real for receivers — just look at A.J. Brown — and Metcalf hasn’t scored in two games. He’ll get force fed and at +240, I’m OK with that.
Buccaneers vs. Texans
I hit a long-shot bet on this Texans defense last week with Tommy Tremble, and while I think another long shot could be in order, I can’t get there with Bucs TE2 Ko Kieft at +1800.
Unlike Tremble, Kieft isn’t being utilized very much compared to starter Cade Otton. Kieft is playing less than 20% of snaps over the last three weeks compared to Otton at over 90% in every game. Otton may not get the volume like Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, but at +450, I’m willing to take a swing.
For the Texans, there’s a bit too much respect for Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce, who have combined for two scores all season and now face a tough Bucs defensive line.
I’d rather go after their wideouts and take someone like Tank Dell or Noah Brown. Considering the Bucs have given up six TDs to WRs and only two to TEs and RBs combined, let’s bank on the Texans' passing game.
Verdict: Bet on Cade Otton at +450 and Noah Brown at +600.
If it’s a game featuring Gardner Minshew, buckle up, because it’s going to be a wild ride.
In Minshew's last three games as a starter, we've seen five passing TDs, five interceptions, two rushing TDs and two strip sacks. All three contests combined to average over 66.3 PPG with no closing total over 44.5. Sportsbooks again have this at 44.5 and if Minshew is involved, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities from short fields.
The first TD scorer that comes to mind has to be Tommy Tremble at +1000. He's a bit of a long shot, but he outsnapped Hayden Hurst last week and scored his second touchdown of the season at +1600. The Colts have only allowed one TD to a TE this season, but are bottom 10 in receptions and yards to the position. The Lions and Texans also fell into that same category when Tremble scored this year.
I recommended Alec Pierce last week at +500, and while he saw 93% of snaps, he only saw five targets compared to Josh Downs (nine). I still think any receiver playing over 90% of snaps is worth a bet.
Verdict: Bet Tommy Tremble at +1000 and Alec Pierce TD at +500.
Daniel Jones is expected back so that’s fine, I guess, but this is a running game for the Giants, not a passing one.
Just bet on Saquon Barkley at +125 and move on. He’s 10th in red-zone carries despite missing two games and he has clearly recovered from his ankle injury after carrying the ball 34 times last week in the loss to the Jets. The Raiders have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs this year and the third-most touchdowns. Don’t overthink it.
If I’m betting a Raider, just take Davante Adams at +155. In two games with Aidan O’Connell, Adams has seen 20 targets. He leads the NFL in red-zone targets but is in the midst of arguably the worst TD-less streak of his career. It’s only a matter of time.
Verdict: Bet Saquon Barkley TD at +125 and Davante Adams TD at +155.
I’m a bit too close to the source material as an unapologetic Cowboys fan, but I’m the “glass half-empty” type who has no issue criticizing my fave team.
The Cowboys secondary has some weak moments in critical games. We’ve seen this when they play upper-echelon opponents — George Kittle scoring three touchdowns is a perfect example. When their pass rush isn’t playing a turnstile offensive line, the difficulty significantly increases, so I love Eagles DeVonta Smith to score.
He’s got three TDs this season and rarely comes off the field. The Cowboys will shift all their focus to stopping A.J. Brown (easier said than done), which will provide more opportunities for Smith to flourish. It also helps that Smith scored in both games vs. Dallas last season.
If I’m betting a Cowboy, it’s Brandin Cooks at +333. He’s scored in each of the last two games and has been outsnapping Michael Gallup as the season has progressed.
Verdict: Bet DeVonta Smith TD at +200 and Brandin Cooks TD at +333.
Week 9 ATD Best Bets
Hunt has four touchdowns in the last three games. He has nine red-zone carries since returning to Cleveland. That’s more than Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong combined, and Hunt has played two fewer games than that pair.
We know running backs will get their touches in Kevin Stefanski’s offense. Cleveland leads the NFL with 34.4 rush attempts per game this season, and that total may increase this week as a big home favorite against the Cardinals.
Arizona has given up the third-most touchdowns to opposing RBs this season. The Cardinals are 31st in DVOA against opposing RBs and 27th in DVOA against the position in the pass game.
This one could get ugly and see a run-heavy game script from Cleveland. Give me Hunt to find the end zone.
Dotson caught a touchdown last week against the Eagles, and he leads the Commanders in red-zone targets with six and has gotten four targets inside the 10-yard line.
Washington will be without Curtis Samuel, which is important. The Patriots are No. 1 in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers, but they’re only 26th against No. 2s. Dotson will be elevated as it would seem New England will focus on containing Terry McLaurin.
New England is also 30th in DVOA against short passes, and Dotson has the lowest average depth of target of all Commanders WRs.
Sam Howell has been somewhat competent, as well, with seven passing touchdowns over his last three games. New England has also given up nine touchdowns to opposing WRs this season.
Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens with 19 red-zone carries, which are the 13th most in the NFL. He has been much, much more active this season than 2022 around the end zone.
Jackson has two rushing touchdowns in two games already this season, against the Lions and Colts. He has also scored three touchdowns in three Ravens home games this season.
Tremble came through for us last week, and we’re on it to happen against. Tremble out-snapped Hayden Hurst last week, which is hugely encouraging for his standing in the Panthers offense.
The Colts have only allowed one touchdown to a tight end this season, but they rank in the bottom 10 in receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position. The Lions and Texans profiled similarly, and Tremble scored on both of them earlier this season.
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