Saints-Falcons Player Prop: Should You Bet on Michael Thomas to Reach 10 Receptions?

Sep 21, 2018 2:50 PM EDT
  • The line for Michael Thomas' total receptions has been set at 9.5 for the Saints-Falcons matchup.
  • Is there value in the over or the under on this prop? Ian Hartitz breaks it down.

Drew Brees and Michael Thomas have posted a ridiculous 74.7% catch rate over their time together, which is the highest mark among all receivers with at least 100 targets over the past 25 years.

Their start to the 2018 season has been even more ridiculous, as Thomas has caught 28 of his 30 targets for 269 yards and three touchdowns.

This incredible amount of production has helped establish sky-high expectations for Thomas entering his Week 3 matchup against the Falcons.


>> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see all of the NFL Week 3 prop bets offering value according to our industry-leading projections. All odds referenced here are as of 2 p.m. ET on Friday.


Over/Under 9.5 Receptions for Michael Thomas in Week 3? (+145/-190)

There’s little debate that Thomas deserves to be mentioned among the league’s best receivers — 6-foot-3, 215-pound athletes with elite route-running and body control simply don’t fall off of trees.

Thomas hasn’t had much trouble with the Falcons defense in the past, posting 7-71-1, 10-156-1, 10-117-1 and 4-66-0 lines in four career games against the divisional rival.

Still, 10 receptions in a single game is a lot, even for a player of Thomas’ caliber.

He’s reached this threshold in only 3 of 20 games (15%) dating back to Week 1 of 2017 (including the playoffs). Overall, Thomas has caught more than 9.5 passes in “just” five of his 35 career games (14%).

The Action Network’s director of predictive analytics Sean Koerner believes there’s value in betting the under.

“I’m getting about a 75% chance he goes under,” Koerner said. “While [Bovada] agrees it’s likely to go under, -190 is still a huge value. They are banking on people overreacting to the two-week sample size here.”

Even if you believe that life is too short to bet the under, consider fading Thomas’ high catch projection against a Falcons defense that has only allowed one receiver (Thomas) to catch 10-plus passes in a game since the start of last season.

Credit:

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Michael Thomas

Follow Ian Hartitz on Twitter
@IHartitz

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
HOU
WAS
43
+3
42.5
+3
CIN
BAL
43.5
-4.5
43.5
-4
PIT
JAC
47.5
+6
47
+5.5
CAR
DET
50.5
+3
49.5
+4.5
DAL
ATL
47.5
-4.5
50
-3
TEN
IND
48
-3
50.5
-1
TB
NYG
52
PK
52.5
-2.5
OAK
ARI
41
-4
41
-5.5
DEN
LAC
47
-7.5
45.5
-7
PHI
NO
54.5
-9
56
-7.5
MIN
CHI
45.5
-2.5
44.5
-2.5
KC
LA
63.5
-1
63
-3.5