NFL Player Props: Our Favorite Sunday Week 13 Picks
Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Thielen.
NFL Player Prop Picks | Week 13
Our staff of betting analysts has you covered with NFL player props for Week 13. We have six overs and an Anytime Touchdown Scorer. To navigate this post, click on a pick below.
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Falcons vs. Jets
By Sam Farley
This is what we call the perfect storm. The Jets have allowed more rushing yards per game (140.3) than all but one other team in the NFL, and Bijan Robinson comes into this game on the back of two straight games of at least 90 rushing yards.
There's always the risk of Falcons head coach Arthur Smith ruining things but with Robinson having 38 carries in the past two games, there's a high likelihood that we see him let off the leash at MetLife Stadium. He should feast on this defense if he gets the opportunity.
I know that Robinson's volume has been a bit of a concern this season but he had 16 rush attempts last week and 22 the week prior. The Falcons have likely figured out that he's their best back and will likely give him a big workload going forward.
While the Jets are a tough defense, they're much easier to attack on the ground, which leans even heavier into the Falcons' conservative game plan with them running the ball an average of 32 times per game this season. The Jets are in the lower half of the league in yards allowed per rush, and Robinson has been averaging a fantastic five yards per carry as a rookie.
I'm expecting Robinson to get 15+ carries in this spot and the books have his rush attempts at 14.5. That makes this line far too low considering the matchup and his ability.
I'd hit this line all the way to 67.5.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Dolphins vs. Commanders
Bookmakers are not expecting a whole lot of fight from the Commanders, who are 9.5-point underdogs. On paper, this is a "Sam Howell chucks it 40+ times in a negative game script" type of story, but this number on Brian Robinson is too low.
Regardless of Antonio Gibson's health, Robinson is going to get at least 60% of carries in the Commanders backfield in what should be a a slower, run-the-ball game plan for offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy (if they want to hang around in this one).
The AETY Model predicts Brian Robinson for 14.4 carries and 52.35 rushing yards, giving us a nice buffer on 40.5.
Pick: Brian Robinson Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Colts vs. Titans
Jonathan Taylor is set two miss the next couple of weeks with a thumb injury, so we're about to get Zack Moss in the bell-cow role once again.
Moss missed Week 1 this season but in Weeks 2-6, he played more than 38 snaps in each game and averaged 2.8 receptions per game. This receiving production was enough for Moss to clear 18.5 yards through the air in four of his five games as the lead back. Now, we're getting 16.5.
Moss totaled 195 total yards in his last meeting against the Titans, which was his best performance of the season. I would be quite surprised if the Titans did not have a better showing stopping the run in the rematch since they're number seven in the league in adjusted line yards per attempt against and boast the second-ranked run defense, according to DVOA.
The Titans are more susceptible through the air, with Colts running backs getting their fair share. The last three games against Tennessee have seen the Jaguars' backs combine for 41 receiving yards, with Rashaad White and Chuba Hubbard both reaching exactly 47. Given that Moss will get one of the largest snap shares in football out of all RBs, this number is simply too low given his bell-cow role.
I'd play this up to 19.5.
Pick: Zach Moss Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
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Colts vs. Titans
The Titans defense is a pass funnel, and it's going to be tough to run on them, especially with Taylor out. But Tennessee ranks 30th in Pass Defense DVOA and bleeds huge production to opposing receivers. The Titans have allowed the fifth-most WR receptions, and opposing WR1s have at least six catches in eight of 11 Tennessee games (73%) this season.
Pittman needs one more than that to go over this line, but that shouldn't be a problem considering he's had at least eight catches in eight of 11 games. He's clearly the go-to guy for Gardner Minshew, and there's little reason to expect his receptions to disappear against an opponent that prefers it that way. Pittman already has seven games with at least 11 targets.
Pick: Michael Pittman Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)
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Lions vs. Saints
By Sam Farley
The Saints have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends this season, which is tied for the most in the NFL. They now welcome Sam LaPorta, a rookie who's proving all stereotypes about rookie TEs wrong.
LaPorta has scored five times in 11 games, including two in the past four weeks. He's been targeted an average of seven times per game this season and if he sees that volume against a defense with weaknesses against TEs, then +210 on him to score is screaming value.
Pick: Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
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Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Thielen is coming off his worst game of the season — a single catch for two yards on three targets. But, he'd recorded at least five catches in nine straight games before that. He's been a reception monster and is clearly Bryce Young's security blanket, and his recent dip in production has dropped the line back to where it provides value.
The Bucs have allowed the most yards in the league to wide receivers and rank near the top in receptions allowed, particularly in the slot where Thielen thrives. Opposing WR1s against the Bucs have at least six catches in eight of 11 games (73%) with an average line of 6.9 catches for 94.6 yards. Check out some of the lines Tampa has allowed: Justin Jefferson 9/150, D.J. Moore 6/104, A.J. Brown 9/131, Amon-Ra St. Brown 12/124 and Michael Pittman 10/107 just last week.
I'd project Thielen closer to seven receptions, so this line is a full catch too low. Five WR1s have at least nine catches against the Bucs, and we've seen Thielen hit 11 catches three times this year.
Thielen is +330 to hit eight catches and +1025 for at least 10 at bet365 if you want to ride the Thielen escalator.
Pick: Adam Thielen Over 5.5 Receptions (-122)
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After essentially being exiled from the offense for a bit, Sanders' workload has picked back up over the last few weeks. He had 15 carries last game and 11 the time out before that.
Sanders has always been a solid back, so it was weird to see the Panthers signing him this offseason and then just stop using him. While the matchup and the game script don't really favor the run, Sanders should still end up with enough volume to more than make up for that this week.
Sanders has hit the over at this number in each of the last two weeks (in losses), and I'll be surprised if he doesn't do it again. I would hit this line all the way up to 30.5.
Pick: Miles Sanders Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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