NFL Player Props: Week 6 Picks for Rachaad White, Zach Ertz

While Rachaad White has a firm grip on a workhorse role in the Bucs backfield, he gets a brutal matchup today against the Lions defense.

Detroit’s run defense ranks fourth in DVOA (per FTN Fantasy), allowing running backs 49.6 yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry, both the third-lowest marks in the NFL. They are equally proficient against the passing game, keeping running backs to 22.6 receiving yards per game (eighth lowest) at 4.3 yards per target (ninth lowest).

White has been inefficient as a runner this season at 3.3 yards per carry and -1.1 Rush Yards Over Expectation per attempt (third-worst amongst qualifying running backs, per Next Gen Stats).

And while he has reeled in 13 catches over his four games, I expect the Lions to limit his targets today.

I have White projected at 65 combined yards and would play this line comfortably down to under 68.5.

Pick: Rachaad White Under 72.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 | DraftKings)

Zach Ertz has stayed under this line in three of his five games this season, with his two longest catches accruing only 15 and 17 yards.

His average depth of target is only 7.2 yards, with only five of his 34 targets even traveling 15 air yards. The veteran tight end is not much of a yards-after-catch threat either, with only 1.6 yards after the catch per reception this season.

While the Rams have been susceptible to some long gains against tight ends this season, Ertz just hasn’t shown the consistent ability to separate or break-away from coverage.

I’d play this line to -140, as I have Ertz’ longest reception projected around 12 yards.

Pick: Zach Ertz Longest Reception Under 14.5 Yards (-125 | DraftKings)

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