NFL Week 7 Player Props for Drake London, Josh Downs
Via Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Drake London #5 of the Atlanta Falcons runs with the ball while being tackled by Steven Nelson #21 of the Houston Texans in the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia.
After a baffling Week 1 performance where London was only targeted once, the sophomore wideout has resumed his place at the top of the Falcons' receiving leaderboard. He’s cleared this line in three of his last five games and is coming off of a career-high 125 receiving yards last week.
In 10 career games with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, London has commanded a 25% target share. While the Bucs rate as an average opponent against opposing WR1s (14th in DVOA, per FTN Fantasy), London has the best matchup amongst his main competition for targets.
Tampa ranks fifth in DVOA against both tight ends and running backs in the passing game and 11th against the ground game overall.
I have London projected for eight targets on Sunday, which should translate to around 60 receiving yards. I’d play this line up to 50.5.
Pick: Drake London Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115 | DraftKings)
While Downs has only stayed south of this line in half of his games thus far, there are several reasons to dial up the under on Sunday.
First, Downs has only hauled in two deep throws this season, both from injured quarterback Anthony Richardson. Gardner Minshew, who will pepper Downs with shorter throws, has yet to target Downs down the field (20+ air yards) this season.
The Browns defense is also excellent, and their secondary ranks sixth in DVOA against deep passes (per FTN Fantasy). Their deliberate style of play has held opposing quarterbacks to just 26.6 attempts per game, the fewest in the NFL.
With fewer passes potentially in store for Minshew against an excellent defense, I don’t see as much upside for Downs in this matchup. I’d play this line down to under 17.5 yards as I have Downs' longest reception projected around 15 yards.
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Pick: Josh Downs Longest Reception Under 18.5 Yards (-125 | DraftKings)
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