NFL Playoff Rankings: Cowboys’ Division, Super Bowl Odds Drop After Loss to Packers

Oct 11, 2019 09:18 PM EDT
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott

  • How did the Cowboys' loss to the Packers affect their playoff and Super Bowl odds? What about the Colts' win over the Chiefs?
  • Below you'll find updated odds for each team to win its division, make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl following Week 6.

It’s no surprise that when two contenders meet, the result has major playoff implications. So when the Packers went into AT&T Stadium and beat the Cowboys, 34-24, Green Bay’s postseason odds rose while Dallas’ fell.

According to our Bet Labs model — which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times — the Packers went from having the seventh-best chances (59.73%) to make the playoffs heading into Week 5 to the fourth-best (74.19%). The Cowboys, on the other hand, fell from the sixth-best (60.65%) all the way to 13th (43.57%). Their chances to win the Super Bowl also fell from 4.03% to 1.97%.

And there was a lot more movement across the league.

We’ll dig into every team’s odds to make the playoffs — as well as their chances of winning their division and the Super Bowl — below, but first, here are a few key takeaways:

  • As the Cowboys’ outlook dims, the Eagles’ brightens a bit. Philly now has the best odds to win the NFC East (59.80%) thanks to its 31-6 rout of Washington.
  • The Saints were another contender to see their postseason odds rise (from 67.87% to 77.55%) after Teddy Bridgewater led them to a third straight win since losing Drew Brees.
  • The Ravens leapfrogged the Browns for the best odds to win the AFC North (51.16%) after edging out the Steelers in overtime. Cleveland has yet to play this week, but is a 5-point road underdog for Monday Night Football.

Now let’s dig into the 1-32 playoff rankings.

Note: These simulation results do not include Monday Night Football.


2019 NFL Playoff Rankings

1. Arizona Cardinals

  • Chance to make playoffs: 1.14%
  • Chance to win division: 0.29%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%

2. Atlanta Falcons

  • Chance to make playoffs: 4.23%
  • Chance to win division: 2.71%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.10%

3. Baltimore Ravens

  • Chance to make playoffs: 68.08%
  • Chance to win division: 51.16%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.37%

4. Buffalo Bills

  • Chance to make playoffs: 68.98%
  • Chance to win division: 2.43%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.50%

5. Carolina Panthers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 38.04%
  • Chance to win division: 23.25%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.98%

6. Chicago Bears

  • Chance to make playoffs: 38.54%
  • Chance to win division: 17.80%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.43%

7. Cincinnati Bengals

  • Chance to make playoffs: 1.25%
  • Chance to win division: 0.80%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%

8. Cleveland Browns

  • Chance to make playoffs: 58.07%
  • Chance to win division: 41.86%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.28%

9. Dallas Cowboys

  • Chance to make playoffs: 43.57%
  • Chance to win division: 34.67%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.97%

10. Denver Broncos

  • Chance to make playoffs: 4.02%
  • Chance to win division: 0.57%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.04%

11. Detroit Lions

  • Chance to make playoffs: 21.91%
  • Chance to win division: 10.46%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.40%

12. Green Bay Packers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 74.19%
  • Chance to win division: 58.06%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 6.61%

13. Houston Texans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 70.72%
  • Chance to win division: 58.68%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.66%

14. Indianapolis Colts

  • Chance to make playoffs: 32.67%
  • Chance to win division: 23.49%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.51%

15. Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Chance to make playoffs: 15.62%
  • Chance to win division: 7.86%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.05%

16. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chance to make playoffs: 97.61%
  • Chance to win division: 91.71%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 11.93%

17. Los Angeles Rams

  • Chance to make playoffs: 58.78%
  • Chance to win division: 29.40%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 5.60%

18. Los Angeles Chargers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 31.89%
  • Chance to win division: 5.98%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.73%

19. Miami Dolphins

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.01%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%

20. Minnesota Vikings

  • Chance to make playoffs: 34.92%
  • Chance to win division: 13.68%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.59%

21. New England Patriots

  • Chance to make playoffs: 99.82%
  • Chance to win division: 97.57%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 35.07%

22. New Orleans Saints

  • Chance to make playoffs: 77.55%
  • Chance to win division: 67.81%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 8.48%

23. New York Giants

  • Chance to make playoffs: 8.47%
  • Chance to win division: 5.46%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.12%

24. New York Jets

  • Chance to make playoffs: 1.26%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.03%

25. Oakland Raiders

  • Chance to make playoffs: 17.60%
  • Chance to win division: 1.74%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.07%

26. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Chance to make playoffs: 67.96%
  • Chance to win division: 59.80%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 6.35%

27. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 13.10%
  • Chance to win division: 6.18%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.09%

28. San Francisco 49ers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 62.60%
  • Chance to win division: 37.77%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 5.18%

29. Seattle Seahawks

  • Chance to make playoffs: 56.19%
  • Chance to win division: 32.54%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.69%

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 11.82%
  • Chance to win division: 6.23%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.22%

31. Tennessee Titans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 19.30%
  • Chance to win division: 9.97%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.23%

32. Washington Redskins

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.09%
  • Chance to win division: 0.07%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%
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