NFL Power Rankings for Week 9: The Curse Claims Another No. 1
It's Halloween, and the curse of the Power Rankings has taken yet another victim.
There's a new No. 1 in the NFL Power Rankings Week 9 for a seventh straight week because six times in row now, the team atop last week's ranks immediately lost its following game. This week was the most unlikely upset yet.
The Chiefs had won 16 straight against the Broncos, but our first sign of worry was Sunday morning when Patrick Mahomes was reported to be dealing with flu symptoms. He later picked up multiple gashes on his non-throwing hand and the Chiefs turned it over five times in a 24-9 beatdown at the hands of Denver. It will go down as Mahomes' first road division loss ever and the first loss of his career (previously 25-0) against teams at least two games below .500.
The Curse of the Power Rankings knows no bounds — so who will it come for next today of all days, on Halloween?
With The Curse on the line and only two real sensible options, I had no choice but to turn to Edgar Allen Poe for some help. These are your Week 9 NFL Power Rankings.
(To skip directly to a specific team, click on the team's name in the table below!)
NFL Week 9 Power Rankings
| # | Team | # | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | ||
| 2 | 18 | ||
| 3 | 19 | ||
| 4 | 20 | ||
| 5 | 21 | ||
| 6 | 22 | ||
| 7 | 23 | ||
| 8 | 24 | ||
| 9 | 25 | ||
| 10 | 26 | ||
| 11 | 27 | ||
| 12 | 28 | ||
| 13 | 29 | ||
| 14 | 30 | ||
| 15 | 31 | ||
| 16 | 32 |
TIER I — THE RAVEN
1. Philadelphia Eagles (Last week ranking: 3)
Sorry, Philadelphia fans. Your time has come.
The Eagles tried to avoid this fate. They went down 14-3 early, fumbled twice inside the five and the defense got lit up for almost 400 yards by Sam Howell, but it was not enough. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown were just too good.
Brown had another monster game and Hurts played his best game of the season with four touchdowns and was especially lethal on late downs at 1.55 EPA per pass. This was an Eagles offense that effectively did anything it wanted other than, for once, converting a Brotherly Shove.
The Eagles are 21-2 when Jalen Hurts plays the last two regular seasons — nearly unbeatable. All they have to do now is beat The Curse of the Power Rankings.
Quoth the Ravens: Nevermore?
2. Baltimore Ravens (2)
The Ravens had one of the most hilariously stupid blown covers in recent memory, ultimately winning the battle of the birds against the Cardinals. But they won the real battle of the birds by playing just ugly enough to stay below the Eagles and avoid The Curse. Galaxy brain.
It wasn't pretty — Arizona actually finished with more yards, more plays, more first downs and time of possession — but it was effective, and Baltimore now moves into No. 1 in Defensive DVOA, ahead of the Browns even after that historic start. The underlying numbers say Baltimore is a class above the rest of the division, even with everyone in the AFC North above .500.
There's still value on Ravens futures.
They're -115 (DraftKings) to win the division, implied 53% versus 78% at FTN. The over 10.5 win total looks good with a projected 12.3 wins, and so do the 1-seed odds at +400 (bet365) with the Ravens now just slight underdogs (31%) to the Chiefs as the favorites to lock up the top seed and the bye week.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (1)
The Chiefs lost an ugly one, 24-9, but I'm not particularly concerned about this curse.
Kansas City had five turnovers plus two turnovers on downs. The Chiefs lost all three fumbles they had and Patrick Mahomes — playing with the flu and a hand injury — had three turnovers for just the fifth time in 88 games. Every team has a bad day, even the mighty Chiefs.
Squint a little and you might actually come away encouraged by this result, because this defense is for real. Kansas City allowed just 3.7 yards per play. It sacked Russell Wilson six times, and check out Denver's scoring drives: 39 yards after a long punt return, 50 yards after a fumble recovery, 10 yards after a muffed punt, and 10 yards after an interception.
The Chiefs gave one away and that matters for playoff positioning, but if the defense is this good, it honestly might not matter.
TIER II — A DREAM WITHIN A DREAM
4. Detroit Lions (4)
The Lions cruised to a 12-point win Monday night and could've won by about 50. They tripled up the Raiders in yardage and had the ball almost 40 minutes. Detroit is +600 to be the 1-seed at bet365 and might have true odds near double that, and that only goes up if The Curse takes Philly down.
Detroit fans are hungry, and for more than just a single home playoff game or the first postseason win in three decades. Lions fans are starting to dream.
Is all that we see or seem,
But a dream within a dream?
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (5)
The Jaguars are tough to figure out. For once, they thoroughly dominated an opponent but turned it over three times inside Pittsburgh's 35, leaving all sorts of points on the board but winning by double digits anyway.
Credit where it's due — I would never, ever have expected the Jaguars to emerge from this brutal schedule stretch 5-0 after two games in London, no rest before a division rivalry, a short-week road trip, and a trip to Pittsburgh. Jacksonville keeps finding ways to win, and the Jags are tied for the 1-seed now.
The numbers haven't been there yet, but if Jacksonville keeps winning, it's hard to imagine Trevor Lawrence not getting some MVP buzz. He's +2500 at bet365 and that feels too long — but there's an even better candidate on the board …
6. Dallas Cowboys (8)
We had scorigami in Dallas, 43-20, as the Cowboys blew the Rams out early. DaRon Bland had his third pick-six of the season — we're not even at the midpoint — and Dallas then added a safety, a long return, a short-field TD, and the rout was on early.
When the Cowboys look good, they seem darn near unbeatable. CeeDee Lamb set career highs in receptions (12) and yards (158) unleashed in a dynamic new outside role coming out of the bye, and Dak Prescott was untouchable, completing 25-of-31 passes for 304 yards and four scores.
Dak Prescott was my MVP bet before the season — and I'm back to tell you to bet on Dak again for MVP at +4000 (BetRivers). The Cowboys head to Philadelphia this week where a win puts them tied atop the NFC.
The best route to MVP is playing QB for the 1-seed and dominating advanced metrics, since the MVP has finished top two in EPA all but once over the past decade. Prescott leads the NFL in EPA per play over the last three weeks, and he ranks top six for the season.
The Eagles pass defense looks ripe for the picking. The Cowboys have a 25% chance at a top-2 seed, per FTN. If Prescott goes to Philadelphia and has a big game in a win, you better believe he will enter the wide-open MVP conversation.
TIER III — THE CASK OF AMONTILLADO
7. Cincinnati Bengals (13)
Are the Bengals back? It sure feels like it, and at the very least, Joe Burrow is extremely back.
Burrow looked healthy out of the bye for the first week all season, and he was absolutely electric. He completed 28-of-32 passes with 19 completions in a row at one point. His +17.6 Completion Percentage Over Expectation was a career high.
Burrow was dialing up passes downfield for the first time all season at 8-of-9 on passes traveling 10+ air yards for 133 yards and two scores. Even more importantly, Burrow moved to 10-0 against the spread since his rookie season as an underdog of three or more, now including 8-2 straight up.
Just look how Burrow lights up the field against a great 49ers defense on this Next Gen Stats chart:
Joe Burrow completed 28/32 passes for 283 yards and 3 TD, generating a career-high +17.8% CPOE in the Bengals' win over the 49ers.
Burrow was most productive on passes of 10+ air yards, completing 8/9 for 133 yards and 2 TD (+36.5% CPOE).#SFvsCIN | #RuleTheJunglepic.twitter.com/Tsh3tQLiVC
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 30, 2023
From Week 5 forward, as Burrow has started to get healthy, he ranks fourth in EPA + CPOE behind only Hurts, Mahomes, and Josh Allen, finally playing like an MVP. Cincinnati is only one loss back from the AFC 1-seed after all that, and Burrow is +2200 for MVP, if you believe.
But the Bengals have the NFL's toughest remaining strength of schedule so it's still a steep hill. Cincinnati's defense was troubling, allowing 8.2 yards per play but bailed out by 49ers turnovers. The numbers say the Bengals are still more likely to miss the playoffs (63% at FTN), bettable at +125 if you're a skeptic.
The Bengals look mostly back, and Burrow looks like his MVP self. Bet them accordingly from week to week, but those early losses still matter for the futures market and the margin remains razor thin.
8. Miami Dolphins (9)
Ho hum, Miami beat up on another bad team. The defense played one of its best games of the season, buoyed by the early return of Jalen Ramsey, who had an interception his first game back.
Still, we already know the Dolphins are great front runners. Let's see it against a real team — like the Chiefs, this Sunday morning in Germany.
9. Seattle Seahawks (6)
The Seahawks rolled early, went cold for half the game, then lucked into a late interception to steal a win late. Seattle continues to look good but go missing on third down and in the red zone. That's been enough against the league's softest schedule so far, but Seattle's schedule is third-toughest the rest of the way.
One name that will help? New Seahawks defensive tackle Leonard Williams following a big trade on Monday. The former Pro Bowler will add an interior pass rush the team hasn't had to an already improving edge rush and great young secondary. Seattle's defense is starting to build something special.
10. San Francisco 49ers (7)
Hey, remember when Brock Purdy was undefeated as an NFL starter and en route to a certain MVP?
The 49ers have taken The Curse hardest, losers of three straight since ascending to the top of the Power Rankings. Purdy has suddenly become a turnover machine with five interceptions in those three losses. He's making some bad mistakes — and finally getting punished for them too.
So how worried should we be?
I'm actually not that worried about the offense. San Francisco averaged 8.2 yards per play Sunday (boosted by 69 garbage yards the final two plays), and don't forget, the 49ers did it without their best offensive player.
No, not Deebo Samuel — I'm talking about Trent Williams, the league's best offensive lineman and the only strong link on San Francisco's line. Since the 49ers traded for Williams in 2020, he's played at least 75% of the snaps in all but 11 San Francisco games; the 49ers are now 3-8 in those other 11 games.
Trent Williams is one of the single most important non-QBs in the league, and everything is harder without him. Luckily, Williams should be back after this bye week. The far bigger concern is the defense and whatever Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins just did to them over the past two weeks.
11. Buffalo Bills (10)
On the one hand, the Bills pretty thoroughly dominated the Bucs for most of Thursday night and Josh Allen had a big stat line. On the other hand, Buffalo played with its food yet again and could very well have lost if Chris Godwin had turned the other way on the final Hail Mary and caught an unfettered ball.
Buffalo's defense has become very problematic. It dropped from sixth to 14th in DVOA this week alone and continues to bottom out without Matt Milano, Tre'Davious White, and DaQuan Jones.
This Sunday night's Bills-Bengals showdown was supposed to be an AFC playoff preview, but whoever picks up their fourth loss will be at risk of missing the postseason altogether and getting buried alive.
TIER IV — THE BLACK CAT
12. Minnesota Vikings (17)
In some beautiful parallel universe, Vikings fans are flying high after a third straight win, riding a great offense and a shocking top-10 defense, starting to dream about not just making the playoffs but making a run in the wide-open NFC — all thanks to a career season and even faint MVP hopes for a QB playing the best ball of his life.
In the real world, Kirk Cousins is out for the season with a torn Achilles and will probably never wear purple and gold again, the Vikings have nothing but a fifth-round rookie left at QB, and a fourth win was just enough to bury Minnesota's chances at tanking enough to draft a future starter.
Every Vikings season is hell. The only real question is which circle.
13. Cleveland Browns (11)
For all the bad QB play around the league, it's starting to feel like P.J. Walker might be the worst regular starter. He completed under half his passes and added three sacks and three more turnovers, routinely making killer mistakes at the worst times. His late interception straight up cost Cleveland the win this week, and the Browns nearly threw away great defensive performances the last two weeks too.
It's only appropriate a franchise this unlucky ends up at No. 13 on Halloween in The Black Cat tier. Only this team could get the best, most fun defense in the league only to be stuck with the corpse of Deshaun Watson and an XFL player at QB.
14. New York Jets (15)
The Jets are just the Browns, Part II. The defense is really rounding into form as the metrics start to peak, but the offense can't find its way out of a paper bag. Consider that the Giants played their second- and third-string QBs Sunday, completed 6-of-14 passes for seven yards, and Zach Wilson somehow finished with a worse EPA per play.
The Jets have saved the season at 4-3, but every new win feels like a Houdini escape.
TIER V — THE PREMATURE BURIAL
15. Los Angeles Chargers (18)
The Chargers forever remain NFL purgatory. They're never actually fully dead, but were they ever really truly alive? It sure looked like it Sunday night, but then again, it always looks like it right after we all finally give up on the Chargers for the umpteenth time each season.
It's nice to see L.A. just win a normal, comfortable game for once, but the Chargers ain't fooling anyone. In the deep AFC, there still may be some value on L.A. to miss the playoffs at -190.
16. New Orleans Saints (21)
While the AFC means death, the NFC means life.
By all accounts, this season has gone miserably for the Saints. Derek Carr is hurt. The offense is fighting on and off the field. New Orleans threw away wins it should've had against the Packers, Texans, and Jaguars. For most average rosters, that would doom the season.
But the Saints live in the NFC, in the league's worst division, where the Falcons and Bucs just lost, in a conference where the Vikings and possibly Rams just lost their QBs. New Orleans was genuinely good beating the Colts, and the underlying numbers think this is a quality, playoff team, even at 4-4. The defense and special teams are great, and the offense is good enough.
It's gross, but the Saints look like the best NFL futures to invest in right now.
New Orleans is -150 to make the playoffs (DraftKings), an implied 60% versus 77% in actuality, per FTN. There's also value on the Saints winning the terrible NFC South at +145, implied 41% versus FTN's 57%.
New Orleans faces Chicago and Minnesota next before a bye. That's likely two backup QBs, and the Saints face only one likely playoff team the rest of the way. This looks like a great time to invest, especially as an easy hedge if you tailed on Falcons division before the season.
17. Houston Texans (12)
Well, that one stings for Texans Island. Houston didn't show much improvement out of the bye and gave away a win in the final minutes to the winless Panthers. That's a tough one for a young team trying to make a playoff push but clearly still finding its way.
Houston stays running far too often on early downs. The Texans rushing attack is terrible and those early runs are putting C.J. Stroud in a hole series after series. Just let your guy throw! Bobby Slowik needs to take the training wheels off.
18. Tennessee Titans (27)
Looks like there's another great rookie QB in the AFC South after Will Levis lit up the Falcons in his debut with touchdowns of 16, 33, 47, and 61 yards. Careful before you get too excited though, Titans fans.
Levis made some filthy throws but was only 15-of-25 for 81 yards (3.2 YPA) outside of those four TDs. He had a -0.60 EPA per play on late down passes and showed some of the happy feet and struggles against pressure when the defense knew to expect a pass.
The Titans were successful on only six other passes Sunday, finishing with a 29% Success Rate in the passing game. That ranked second lowest for the weekend, ahead of only the awful Giants, and right behind the terrible Raiders passing game you just watched Monday night. The chunk plays are great but not always sustainable.
Now we need to see Levis put together drives and matriculate the ball down the field, and the next test on the road in Pittsburgh gets significantly harder.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (14)
The Steelers defense keeps giving this team chances, and it gets a great opportunity on a short week against a rookie road debut in Levis. But Pittsburgh looks like it could be without both Kenny Pickett and star S Minkah Fitzpatrick itself.
I keep looking for a spot to fade Steelers futures for a team that just feels thoroughly underwhelming, but the floor is too stable.
TIER VI — THE TELL-TALE HEART
20. Los Angeles Rams (19)
The three teams in this section would be gone and left for dead already in the AFC, but in the NFC, one of these three is likely headed to the playoffs. Beneath the creaky wooden floors of a faltering foundation lies a quiet pulsating, pounding tell-tale heart. There's still some life in these bones.
For the Rams, that life depends on Matt Stafford's injury not being serious. His advanced metrics have quietly tanked over the last month even with Cooper Kupp's return, but this is still a high-ceiling offense with Stafford out there. If it's Brett Rypien or Stetson Bennett instead, write the eulogy.
21. Atlanta Falcons (16)
The Falcons are still somehow tied for the division lead, but man is this team frustrating.
Atlanta was finally forced to turn to Taylor Heinicke at halftime after one of Desmond Ridder's five first-half sacks put him in concussion protocol. Heinicke posted great numbers — only for Arthur Smith to immediately declare after the game that Ridder was fine and would remain the starter going forward.
Between that and the insistence of running the entire offense through Jonnu Smith when Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts exist, this team can feel infuriating. Now the defense has lost its biggest strength too, with DT Grady Jarrett out for the season. He and David Onyemata had been terrific up the middle, and his loss downgrades the Falcons from 13th to 21st in my defense rankings matrix.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20)
The Bucs have looked pretty lifeless against all three top opponents they've faced this season, but luckily for Tampa Bay, there aren't any of those in the NFC South. A competent defense and a soft division schedule continue to keep this team alive, but it feels like the Bucs' best chance is behind them.
TIER VII — THE FALL OF THE HOUSE OF USHER
23. Indianapolis Colts (22)
Colts overs continue to smash, with Indianapolis games now averaging 54.2 PPG. That's both good news and bad news for Indianapolis, since it means the offense is outperforming expectations with Gardner Minshew, but also that the defense is getting repeatedly gashed. This week that meant giving up 511 yards and 7.7 yards per play to a mediocre Saints offense.
But hey — at least the games are entertaining!
24. Denver Broncos (24)
Tough life for Broncos fans excited about beating the Chiefs for the first time since the Roosevelt administration, only to come to the Power Rankings and find the team in the exact same spot it was one week ago.
I don't know what to tell ya. Denver got seven turnovers and beat Mahomes. You know what they say — even a broken clock is right once every 17 games.
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 29, 2023
25. Washington Commanders (26)
For whatever reason, Washington continues to have Philadelphia's number. Sam Howell lit up the Eagles defense for four TDs and almost 400 yards, and the Commanders outgained the Eagles and even led 14-3 early. If nothing else, that's a nice moral victory.
If the Commanders only got to play Philadelphia all season long, they'd probably still finish 7-10, but they'd be 13-4 in morale victories.
26. Green Bay Packers (23)
The Packers first-half offense remains absolutely anemic. Green Bay has scored nine points combined in its last five first halves. The Packers have been outscored 73-9 during that stretch, going 0-5 ATS on first-half lines and consistently digging a hole the team is too young and inconsistent to get out of.
The truth is starting to sink in for Green Bay. Jordan Love just doesn't look very good.
TIER VIII — THE PIT AND THE PENDULUM
27. New England Patriots (29)
Tom Brady was the pendulum and Bill Belichick is the pit. The Patriots remain stuck in the middle, tortured by what's left, and it's probably time for an inquisition.
28. Chicago Bears (25)
So much for all that fake Tyson Bagent hope. The undrafted rookie looked like, well, an undrafted rookie on Sunday night. He turned it over three times and very much looked the part of a guy who won a debut the team would've been better off losing to replace him instead.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (28)
Only the "3" in the Raiders' win column keeps them out of the bottom tier, and at this point, even that may not do the trick much longer. Las Vegas has looked completely lifeless in back-to-back games. It would be a shock if Josh McDaniels made it through the season.
TIER IX — A DESCENT INTO THE MAELSTROM
30. Carolina Panthers (31)
Hey hey, the Panthers won a game! The offense took a step forward with Thomas Brown calling the plays, and Bryce Young even looked like a competent QB — dare I say, maybe even the best rookie QB on the field.
Young is +5500 (DraftKings) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. He's thrown only two fewer TDs than C.J. Stroud and now has only two fewer wins — and a head-to-head victory. If Young closes the gap and the Texans continue to give games away, and with Puka Nacua and Jordan Addison's QBs both getting hurt and potentially thwarting their numbers, OROY could still be open.
That number looks too long for a No. 1 pick after six starts. There's a lot of ball left to play, and I'll do you one more, Panthers fans. How about +10000 to win the division (Caesars)? The NFC South is awful, and the Panthers play the Colts and Bears next, possibly two backup QBs. Dare to dream?
North Carolina sports betting is coming soon! Check our North Carolina state page to stay up to date with the latest news!
31. Arizona Cardinals (32)
The Cardinals won by losing Sunday, sliding back into the No. 1 draft slot with Carolina's win. Now the team will start rookie Clayton Tune next week, which sounds an awful lot like making sure the team locks that draft slot down so they can replace Tune, Joshua Dobbs, and Kyler Murray with a new QB instead.
32. New York Giants (30)
A truly pathetic loss for the Giants. In a game featuring 24 punts — 15 in the first half alone — the Giants fed Saquon Barkley 39 touches for a whopping 3.3 yards per touch and basically eschewed passing altogether.
Tyrod Taylor and third-stringer Tommy DeVito combined to complete 6-of-14 passes for seven yards, an awful 0.5 YPA. DeVito himself completed 2-of-7 for -1 yard. New York was successful on just one of its 23 pass calls — and that success was on a scramble. Per Robert Mays via Tru Media, that horrendous 4.3% Success Rate is the worst passing game tracked this entire century.
Think about all the bad QBs you've seen this century, all the terrible weather and horrible conditions. Think about the worst passing games you've seen in 23 years.
The Giants were somehow even worse. And the craziest part? They absolutely should've won anyway.
NFL Week 9 Power Rankings
- Philadelphia Eagles (Last week ranking: 3)
- Baltimore Ravens (2)
- Kansas City Chiefs (1)
- Detroit Lions (4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (5)
- Dallas Cowboys (8)
- Cincinnati Bengals (13)
- Miami Dolphins (9)
- Seattle Seahawks (6)
- San Francisco 49ers (7)
- Buffalo Bills (10)
- Minnesota Vikings (17)
- Cleveland Browns (11)
- New York Jets (15)
- Los Angeles Chargers (18)
- New Orleans Saints (21)
- Houston Texans (12)
- Tennessee Titans (27)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (14)
- Los Angeles Rams (19)
- Atlanta Falcons (16)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20)
- Indianapolis Colts (22)
- Denver Broncos (24)
- Washington Commanders (26)
- Green Bay Packers (23)
- New England Patriots (29)
- Chicago Bears (25)
- Las Vegas Raiders (28)
- Carolina Panthers (21)
- Arizona Cardinals (32)
- New York Giants (30)
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