I'm targeting three spreads on Sunday of NFL Week 5, including picks for Broncos vs Eagles, Dolphins vs Panthers, and Raiders vs Colts.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the fifth NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions & Picks Week 5
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Broncos vs Eagles Spread Prediction
According to our Action Labs data, undefeated favorites of -7.5 or less are 129-181-7 (42%) ATS since 2010.
The Eagles have mostly won ugly in 2025, with a lot of unsustainable scoring luck involved.
Philadelphia already has two blocked field goal returns for touchdowns, and has scored touchdowns on 11-of-11 red zone opportunities.
However, Jalen Hurts is averaging a career-low 6.0 YPA, and his 41.8% Pass Success Rate is his lowest since taking over as the full-time starter in 2021.
Saquon Barkley has been limited to YPC averages of 3.3, 4.0, 2.6, and 2.3, with a high of 88 rushing yards and his longest gain ringing in at 16.
The Broncos are averaging 0.048 Expected Points Added per Play on offense (13th), while the Eagles are averaging 0.032 (16th).
Denver has also been the better of the two defenses, allowing -0.096 EPA per play (fourth) and a 38.7% Success Rate (third) compared to Philadelphia’s -0.032 (16th) and 44.0% (17th), respectively.
Per Action Labs, Sean Payton-coached teams are 58-42-2 (58%) ATS as underdogs for a 13% ROI.
Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-115)
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Dolphins vs Panthers Spread Pick
The Panthers got trounced by a score of 42-13 to the Patriots last week, but according to our Action Labs data, underdogs coming off a loss of 20+ points while allowing 40+ points are 141-98-8 (59%) ATS for a 14% ROI since 2003.
This is only Carolina’s second home game; the Panthers pitched a 30-0 shutout against the Falcons in their first home contest.
Carolina is clearly the superior of the two defenses in this game, ranking 19th in EPA per play (0.022) to Miami’s 31st (0.208), and seventh in Success Rate (41.5%) to Miami’s 32nd (52.6%).
On early downs, which remove some variance from Success Rate numbers, the Carolina defense is eighth (41.2%) while Miami is 31st (51.8%).
Carolina’s defensive numbers are inflated by some special teams gaffes, including punt returns of 87 and 61 yards allowed to the Patriots' Marcus Jones.
Miami’s offense has been slightly better in terms of EPA per play (0.007, 20th) than Carolina’s (-0.032, 24th), but the Dolphins just lost Tyreek Hill to a season-ending knee injury.
Hill leads the Dolphins in targets (29), catches (21), receiving yards (265) and receiving first downs (17). His injury will have a ripple effect that makes the entire Dolphins easier to defend, especially on a short week on the road.
Jaylen Waddle will likely see more of Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn, who has allowed 67 yards on 6-of-15 passing attempts his way. Horn has one interception and a 26.3 passer rating on 134 snaps in coverage, per PFF.
Pick: Panthers +1.5 (-115)
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Raiders vs Colts Best Bet
This is a big number for two teams that have been roughly equal defensively, with the Colts due for downward offensive regression and the Raiders due for upward offensive improvement.
Defensively, the Raiders are 14th in EPA per play (-0.004) and 15th in Success Rate (43.2%), while the Colts are 13th in EPA per play (-0.028) and 25th in Success Rate (47.4%).
Offensively, the Colts are averaging an unsustainable 63.2% scoring rate per drive.
Daniel Jones leads the league with a 62.4% first-read throw rate, which will lead to decreased performance as more tape of him becomes available.
Meanwhile, the Raiders turned the ball over in four of their first seven possessions last week alone, yet they still were in position for a game-winning field goal, which got blocked.
Against the Chargers, Geno Smith had two passes intercepted at the goal line. Smith’s interception rate is 5.5%, which should regress to his career 2.8% rate over time.
Per our Action Labs data, Pete Carroll-coached teams coming off a multi-game losing streak are 23-6-1 (79%) ATS for a 52% ROI since 2010.
Pick: Raiders +7 (-105)
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