The Miami Dolphins (1-3) and Carolina Panthers (1-3) meet in Week 5 on Sunday, October 5. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. The game will broadcast on FOX.
The Dolphins are 1.5-point favorites over the Panthers on the spread (Dolphins -1.5), with a game total of 44.5. Miami is a -120 favorite to win outright on the moneyline; Carolina is a +100 underdog.
Below you can find my Dolphins vs Panthers predictions for Week 5.
Dolphins vs Panthers Prediction
- Dolphins vs Panthers pick: Panthers +1.5 (-115)
My Panthers vs Dolphins best bet is on Carolina to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Dolphins vs Panthers Odds
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Dolphins vs Panthers NFL Week 5 Preview
The Dolphins finally claimed their first win of the season by posting a 27-21 victory over the Jets on Monday Night Football — I think this line is a bit of an overreaction to that. Quite frankly, Miami probably should've lost that game.
Meanwhile, the Panthers got blown out by a score of 42-13 by the Patriots. That might've also been a factor at play when it came to setting this line.
The Dolphins have been terrible this season, and it was pretty easy to predict their downfall. Everybody was selling the Dolphins before the season even started.
The Panthers have also been generally terrible this season, but at least there are some areas where they haven't been completely terrible.
The final score in last week's loss makes the Panthers' defense look much worse than they've actually played. Truth be told, Carolina's defense has been decent through the first four weeks of the season, especially at home, best highlighted by a shutout win over the Falcons.
The Panthers rank eighth in the NFL in defensive success rate (top 10!).
How about the Dolphins? Where do they rank in defensive success rate?
Answer: dead last.
EPA per play rankings don't have the Panthers defense ranked quite as high, currently sitting at 19th. However, they are still much better than Miami by that metric as well — the Dolphins rank 31st.
Any way you slice it, the Panthers should have a sizable edge on the defensive side of the ball in this matchup.
Both offenses are pretty bad, with the Panthers being slightly worse. The Dolphins rank 20th in EPA per play while the Panthers rank 24th.
However, those offensive rankings don't account for the loss of Tyreek Hill entering this matchup, and I don't think the addition of Darren Waller is enough to make up for Hill's absence.
Hill's speed out wide is the key to unlocking the rest of the Dolphins' offensive scheme. It's a brutal loss for Miami hitting the road on a short week.
Dolphins vs Panthers Prediction, Betting Analysis
At this point, I think this is a pair of bad teams. I prefer the spot for the Panthers returning home while Miami will be hitting the road on short rest.
Tua Tagovailoa was already showing signs of regression, and now he's not going to have Hill in this matchup. In the past, we've already seen what this Miami team looks like whenever Hill is sidelined. It seems like Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins' offense runs out of ideas real fast.
Since 2003, underdogs coming off a 20-point loss in which they allowed 40+ points (such as the Panthers) are 141-98-8 ATS the following game (59%), good for a 14% ROI.
I don’t think the Panthers should be home 'dogs in this spot. At worst, this line should be a pick‘em.
And the more you look into the history of the Dolphins without Hill, the worse this spot begins to look for Miami.
Pick: Panthers +1.5 (-115)
Spread
My Panthers vs Dolphins betting prediction is on Carolina to cover the spread at +1.5.
Moneyline
I prefer to take the points with the Panthers in this spot instead of betting on them to win outright on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm also steering clear of the total in this spot.
