The Denver Broncos (2-2) and Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) will meet in Week 5 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Eagles are 3.5-point favorites over the Broncos on the spread (Eagles -3.5), with the over/under set at 44 total points. Philadelphia is a -220 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Denver is +185 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Broncos vs Eagles predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday, October 5.
Broncos vs Eagles Prediction, Picks
- Broncos vs Eagles pick: Broncos +3.5 (-115)
My Eagles vs. Broncos best bet is on Denver to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Broncos vs Eagles Odds for NFL Week 5
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 44 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 44 -110o / -110u | -220 |
Denver Broncos vs Philadelphia Eagles NFL Preview
There's no denying the fact that the Eagles have been extremely lucky so far this season. They are first in our Luck Rankings right now while the Broncos are 24th.
Denver is a team I have been high on since the start. The raw underlying metrics suggest that the Broncos are the better team in this matchup on both sides of the ball.
The Broncos rank 13th in offensive EPA per play (.048) compared to the Eagles’ ranking 16th in that category (.032).
The Broncos also rank fourth in EPA per play on defense while Philadelphia ranks 12th. If we examine each team's defensive success rate, the Broncos jump up to third, while Philly drops to 17th.
That testament passes the eye test. When the Eagles have played against quality defenses, they've had issues. We saw glimpses of those struggles against the Rams, and we even saw some against the Cowboys.
The Eagles trailed by a score of 26-7 against the Rams before pulling off a miraculous comeback.
However, so many coaches don’t know how to protect a lead in the NFL these days so I'm not going to give Philly too much credit. The Eagles should have come into the game more aggressively, but they got the job done.
Last week, it was the same thing: not a very convincing win over a decimated Buccaneers team.
Eagles' quarterback Jalen Hurts is only averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt. Star running back Saquon Barkley hasn't shown the same level of explosiveness as he did last year. I think that's taken a big toll on this team.
Barkley's rushing totals so far this season have clocked in at: 88, 60, 46 and 43.
The Eagles didn’t complete a pass in the second half of last week's victory over Tampa Bay. According to Evan Abrams, they are the first team to win a game without completing a pass in a second half since the Raiders did it against the Chiefs back in 2023.
The underlying metrics suggest that the Broncos are the better team, but they've just caught some unlucky breaks.
That said, the Broncos have also been making ill-advised decisions. Bo Nix has made numerous risky downfield throws, and there have been some questionable play calls from head coach Sean Payton at various times.
There is a lot to correct, but I can't ignore the fact that the Broncos simply appear to be the better team.
Broncos vs Eagles Betting Predictions, Analysis
The trends also support the Broncos.
When an undefeated team is facing an underdog of eight points or less, the underdog is 181-129-7 ATS, with the favorite winning outright only 58% of the time.
Over the course of his career, Broncos head coach Sean Payton owns a record of 58-42-2 ATS when tagged as an underdog.
This is also our top Luck Rankings play of the week, boasting a rare A-grade.
I love the idea of getting the hook at +3.5 against an Eagles team that I'm not convinced can move the ball consistently to build enough margin to even win this game, let alone cover the spread.
Broncos vs Eagles Best Bet
- Broncos +3.5 (-115)
Broncos vs Eagles Betting Trends
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