I'm targeting three NFL spreads on Sunday of Week 8, including picks for Giants vs Eagles, Cowboys vs Broncos, and Colts vs Titans.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the eighth NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions & Spread Picks
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Giants vs Eagles
The Eagles have yet to beat a team by more than seven points (and that was the Rams on a fluky blocked field goal return for a TD on the final play of the game).
By our expected scores metric, which power our Luck Rankings, the Eagles have fewer expected wins (2.9) than the Giants (3.4).
Philadelphia rates as the luckiest team in the league, and their only decisive victory came against the Bucs, who rank as the second-luckiest.
The Giants rank 30th, giving this game an A-graded cover probability north of 60%.
The Giants have been the best team on the field in seven of the last eight quarters against the Eagles and Broncos, and while the absence of No. 1 corner Paulsen Adebo had the potential to swing this game in the Eagles favor after A.J. Brown erupted for 4-121-2 last week, Brown (hamstring/trade?) has been ruled out.
Over the full season, the Eagles offense ranks 21st in success rate (43.3%), one spot below the Giants (43.5%), and that includes Brown suiting up in every game for Philly and Russell Wilson starting three games for the Giants.
It’s tough to make the case the Eagles will win by their biggest margin of their year in this spot.
Pick: Giants +7.5
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Texans vs 49ers
Even after factoring in the absence of Nico Collins (concussion), this total is too low.
This is only C.J. Stroud’s third home game.
In his career, Stroud is averaging 8.2 YPA and 274.6 yards passing at home compared to 6.8 YPA and 209.9 yards on the road.
He faces a 49ers defense that is without its two best players in Nick Bosa and Fred Warner and plays man coverage at the 10th-lowest rate.
Stroud is averaging 4.0 yards per dropback against man this season, but 6.1 against zone.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have been extremely pass-heavy with Mac Jones, averaging 38.8 pass attempts per game in his starts.
They’ll also have George Kittle for just the third time all season.
Pick: Over 41.5
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Buccaneers vs Saints
The Bucs are known for their blitz-heavy scheme under Todd Bowles, and have blitzed 37.4% of the time this season, fourth-highest.
Entering Week 8, Spencer Rattler ranks second among 37 qualifiers in PFF offensive grade against the blitz (90.3), and third in PFF passing grade against the blitz (86.6).
While the Saints put Erik McCoy (biceps) on IR this week, they list no one on the final injury report, the Bucs will be without three of their best skill players in Mike Evans (IR-collarbone), Chris Godwin (leg), and Bucky Irving (foot).
Defensively, they’ll be without pass rusher Haason Reddick (ankle). Vita Vea (foot) is listed as questionable after missing the final two practices of the week.
The Bucs have overachieved all season but are in a tough spot on a short week coming off a physical game against the Lions.
Meanwhile, the Saints have played better than their 1-6 record would otherwise indicate.
The Bucs rank second-luckiest in our Luck Rankings while the Saints rank 27th, giving this matchup a B grade and a 59.3% luck-based cover probability.
Pick: Saints +3.5
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Cowboys vs Broncos
While the Cowboys are on the road in a tough place to play, they enter this matchup as the better team in overall DVOA, ranking ninth to Denver’s 14th.
The Cowboys also have schematic advantages on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, the Cowboys will face a Broncos defense that employs man coverage at the NFL’s highest rate (59.6%), and single-high safety shell at the third-highest rate (60.8%).
Among 36 qualified passers, Dak Prescott ranks second in yards per dropback against man coverage (7.9), and sixth in yards per dropback versus single-high (7.4).
Defensively, the Cowboys under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus employ zone at the second-highest rate (74.1%).
Bo Nix has had success against man coverage looks, ranking 12th in yards per dropback (6.2), but struggled against zone, ranking 31st with 4.9 yards per dropback.
Pick: Cowboys +3.5
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Titans vs Colts
The Colts lead the NFL at 33.1 points per game and have scored 30-plus in 5-of-7 games. They face a Titans defense they hung 41 on outdoors in Tennessee in Week 3.
The Titans are missing one of the top defensive players in the league in Jeffery Simmons (hamstring), and just placed No. 1 corner L’Jarius Sneed (quad) on IR.
Offensively, the changes made by the coaching staff in the first game sans Brian Callahan led to Cam Ward’s first game cracking 7.0 YPA (7.5) and a 70% completion rate (73.5%).
Also working in favor of the over is the fact the new staff called 39 passes and only 12 runs.
Pick: Over 47.5
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