NFL Predictions Week 12: Data-Driven Picks for Kyler Murray, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, More

NFL Predictions Week 12: Data-Driven Picks

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from the NFL Week 12 Sunday slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

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By Billy Ward

This isn’t even an exhaustive list of all the games I’d consider betting this prop on this week, but these are the three top options (all at BetMGM):

• Patriots vs. Giants (+130)
• Steelers vs. Bengals (+130)
• Browns vs. Broncos (+125)

Patriots-Giants is the only game of the trio with a spread above three, but at 3.5, it’s still likely to be very close. However, that’s made up for by the absurdly low total (34). That’s one of the lowest totals in my sample set, so it’s hard to accurately price the prop. All games under 40 see the “no” prop hit more often than the "yes," with totals further below even more likely.

The other two games have slightly higher totals of 36 (Steelers vs. Bengals) and 37 (Browns vs. Broncos), but still extremely low. On top of that, they both feature spreads of two or less, another strong side for the "no."

On average, games with a spread of two or less would have a fair value of +129 to the "no," but the vast majority of those games have significantly higher totals.

Considering the combination of low spreads and totals, I’d make all three of these games better than 50% for the "no" to hit.

Pick: Either Team to Record 3 Unanswered Scores — No (+130)

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By Billy Ward

I considered just writing up the over on Henry's rushing yards — 68.5 (-115) on BetMGM. I’ll be betting that, but it’s more fun to take a bigger swing on Henry to lead the slate in rushing yards.

There are plenty of reasons to like Henry’s chances this week. First, he’s taking on the Panthers, who rank 32nd in DVOA against the run. They’ve faced the highest rushing play rate of any team in the NFL.

Then there’s Henry’s splits. In wins, he’s averaging 23 carries per game; in losses, he’s averaging just under 13. Henry has long been one of the most game-script dependent backs in the league, a trend that’s continued into 2023.

With the Titans as slight favorites, the game script should work out in his favor for him to turn in a vintage performance. While he didn’t post massive yardage totals in those wins, he faced tougher rushing defenses than he will this week.

While the Bengals rank 30th in DVOA against the run, they’ve boosted opponent rushing production by just 3.5% – Carolina is at 10.8%.

Finally, we’re nearing the point in the year when Henry traditionally takes over. He’s always dominated during the winter months, averaging 96.5 yards per game in December and over 140 in January. It’s still November, but there’s a clear trend toward Henry getting better as the season wears on.

Pick: Derrick Henry: Most Rushing Yards on Sunday (+800)

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By Nick Giffen

I’m not sure why the number is so long on DraftKings compared to FanDuel (+112). Murray’s three-year bad-ball rate (BB%) is right at 11%, a tick below league average.

His turnover-worthy play percentage (TWP%) of just 1.3% is due for some regression toward his career — and three-year — averages, which both hang around 2.7%.

He faces a Rams team that is right around league average in BB%, forcing a bad ball on 11.4% of passes faced.

Even using a conservative estimate of 30.5 pass attempts, I get fair value right at +105 for this bet, so we’re getting excellent odds at DraftKings. Bet365 has this at +145 if you have that book available to you.

Pick: Kyler Murray Interception (+140)

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By Nick Giffen

FanDuel is quite out of line with the market here as most books have this priced around -145. Even then, I’d lean toward taking over as Thompson-Robinson has struggled in his first two starts.

Thompson-Robinson's bad-ball rate (BB%) of 17.9% is way above league average, which hovers in the 11-12% range on a week-to-week basis. His turnover-worthy play percentage (TWP%) of 6.4% would be third-worst among all QBs if he had enough passing attempts to qualify.

The matchup against Denver isn’t as easy as it seems either. Yes, the Broncos are 31st in defensive pass DVOA, but they have forced 38 bad balls this year for an 11.8% rate, which is a tick above league average. Similarly, they’ve been middle of the pack in TWP%.

I have Thompson-Robinson throwing at least one interception north of 61% of the time, meaning this is playable close to around -150.

Pick: Dorian Thompson-Robinson Interception (-118)

By Nick Giffen

There are four games with a total below 40 this week, but the only one with a significant Luck Total to the under is Browns vs. Broncos.

With a Luck Total of -7.4, this is the only Sunday game that meets the Luck Under threshold of -5.

Not only are Luck Unders 116-78-3 (60%) to the under in the last six years, but Luck Unders in games where the total is below 43 are 15-5-1 (73.8%) to the under, including 9-2 to the under if the total is 42 or lower.

One of the other low total games, Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati, has a Luck Total of +6.6, making it a Luck Over.

One other fun fact: Adrian Hill is the referee for Browns vs. Broncos — Games he has officiated are 34-22 to the under (60.7%) since 2020.

Pick: Lowest Scoring Game on Sunday (+480)