NFL Week 6 kicks off with Eagles vs Giants on Thursday Night Football.
The Eagles enter TNF looking to rebound after suffering their first loss of the season to the Broncos. The Giants, meanwhile, suffered a loss to the Saints after an upset win over the Chargers in the prior week.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out our Eagles vs Giants preview, which includes six picks for the game.
Tonight, I'm targeting Giants rookies Jaxson Dart and Abdul Carter in the prop market. Find my over/under prop bets for each player below.
NFL Prop Bets Props: Jaxson Dart, Abdul Carter O/U Predictions
Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart has made two starts so far, with 20 attempts in one and 40 in the other.
Much like the market, I expect him to land somewhere in the middle tonight. The Giants have been more run heavy with Dart under center, carrying a -3.7% pass rate over expected. Last week’s spike in attempts for Dart was mostly due to fluky plays that created extra possessions in pass-heavy scripts.
On the Saints’ fifth drive, Rashid Shaheed scored on an 87-yard touchdown on the first play, and in the fourth quarter, Cam Skattebo fumbled at the end of a 12-play drive, which was returned 86 yards for another Saints TD. Both plays handed the ball right back to the Giants and I would say created 5+ extra pass attempts for Dart.
The Giants ran 70 total plays, which is high. That is not to say it can't happen again as a 7-point home underdog on TNF, but I already laid out why I like the Giants to cover and keep this game close with a more run-heavy plan against what is essentially a run-funnel Eagles defense … especially if Jalen Carter (questionable) sits.
Dart has several underlying traits that naturally lower his attempts relative to dropbacks. He owns a 17.3% scramble rate — sixth highest among qualified QBs — and that is not a fluke.
I have said from the jump that he profiles as a low-end QB1 in fantasy because of his legs, and losing Malik Nabers should only encourage him to run rather than force throws.
Speaking of which, he has only attempted a pass into tight coverage 6.7% of the time (second lowest in the league), which further supports the idea that he tucks and runs when he does not see a clean window. He also has just one throwaway on 75 attempts — by far the lowest rate in the league — which remains one of the most underrated telltale stats when betting on pass attempt unders.
Dart’s over has apparently been the most-bet prop on the slate, but I think the market is overlooking everything I noted above, particularly the likelihood of a competitive game.
One final edge is Giants punter Jamie Gillan, who has mastered the new kickoff rules and is allowing a league-best 19.4-yard average starting field position. That forces longer Eagles drives or better field position for the Giants, both of which only help this number stay down.
I am projecting Dart at 30.1 attempts, giving him roughly 60% to stay under 31.5.
The Giants took Abdul Carter with the third overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft; he was arguably the best pure talent in this year’s class with Micah Parsons comparisons across the board.
Through five games, Carter has only registered 0.5 sacks, but his underlying metrics tell a completely different story. He is playing at an elite level and I want to invest in his sack market before the results catch up and books adjust.
Carter has generated 25 total pressures, seventh most in the league, and 15 of them have been quick pressures (within three seconds), which is tied with Will Anderson Jr. for the league lead.
Based on Carter's pressure profile, I project 3.42 expected sacks to date. Compared to his 0.5 actual, that is a +2.92 sack differential, the largest in what are essentially my internal sack “luck rankings.” That makes him a clear buy-low candidate at this price.
It is not the easiest matchup, however, as he will be facing Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata, and Jalen Hurts is one of the tougher quarterbacks to sack even when pressured.
But even baking that into the projection, I still get this much closer to a coin flip. Here are the results from my sack simulator, where I ran tonight’s matchup 10,000 times to pull Carter’s true odds:
| Sacks | Odds |
|---|---|
| 0 | 51% |
| 0.5 | 8% |
| 1 | 26% |
| 1.5 | 4% |
| 2 | 7% |
| 2.5 | 1% |
| 3 | 2% |
| 3.5 | 0% |
| 4 | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% |
Just watching Carter's film confirms it. He already looks like a star in the making and has had multiple near-sacks where a rookie mistake or slight misstep cost him.
The time to buy is now, even in a tougher matchup.
Note: The Giants spread is included as it correlates with my prop picks.
