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NFL Prop Bets & Picks For Patriots vs. Jets On Monday Night Football

Credit:

Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Cam Newton

  • Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite NFL prop bet for the Patriots vs. Jets matchup on Monday Night Football.
  • He's 71-48 (59.7%) on props he's highlighted for every 2020 slate so far. Find out why he's fading Cam Newton's passing production below.

NFL Prop Bets For Patriots vs. Jets

  • The Pick: Cam Newton under 207.5 Pass Yards (-110)
  • Bet Now: FanDuel

It’s uncommon to have a pass yardage prop below 200, but Cam Newton deserves that treatment on Monday night.

Newton has topped 175 passing yards in only one of his six starts this season. There are a few factors that have resulted in his median passing yards being just 159.5, all of which remain in-play for Monday night — and could be amplified.

First, the Patriots lack talented pass catchers. This is true even when they’re at full health, but with Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry both out, it’s even thinner. Newton’s starting wide receivers will be Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd and Gunner Olszewski. Ryan Izzo looks set to be the only active tight end as both rookies Dalton Keene and Devin Asiasi are out.

The Patriots pass the ball at the third-lowest rate in the league (50%). When playing with a lead, their pass rate plummets to 37%. Considering the Patriots are 10-point favorites (find real-time odds here), I expect a run-heavy game plan — that includes Newton, who has rushed nine or more times in five of his six starts.

All these factors lead me to believe his low passing yard output will continue. As a result, I would set this line closer to 188.5 and would bet the under down to 196.5 yards.

Here are the projected chances of him going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 prop simulations:

Pass Yds
Over
Under
196.5
44.7%
55.3%
197.5
44.0%
56.0%
198.5
43.4%
56.6%
199.5
42.7%
57.3%
200.5
42.1%
57.9%
201.5
41.4%
58.6%
202.5
40.8%
59.2%
203.5
40.1%
59.9%
204.5
39.5%
60.5%
205.5
38.8%
61.2%
206.5
38.2%
61.8%
207.5
37.6%
62.4%

[Bet at FanDuel completely risk-free for $1,000]

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