Week 1 NFL Prop Bets: 17 Player Props Offering Value for Sunday
Brett Carlsen/Getty Images. Pictured: Keenan Allen
- Ten unders. Four first touchdown scorer. Three overs.
- Sean Koerner highlights his 17 (!) favorite NFL prop bets for Sunday's main slate.
- Find out why these are among his top betting edges for Week 1 below.
Player props can offer a ton of value. In fact, I’ve identified 17 that are offering value for Sunday’s main slate based on my Week 1 player projections.
Let’s jump right in.
Week 1 NFL Prop Bets
Click on a game to skip ahead.
Dolphins at Patriots Props
Cam Newton Under 249.5 Pass Yards (-112) [Bet now at DraftKings]
I’m betting on both passing offenses to be a bit sluggish in this matchup. Newton is going up against a vastly improved secondary, with limited weapons to at his disposal. Bet to 243.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick Under 239.5 Pass Yards (-115) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Fitzmagic’s top-two wide receivers, DeVante Parker and Preston Williams, have been limited due to injury. The Dolphins may have a 4-6 WR rotation here to figure out who will replace Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns, who opted out of the season. Bet to 234.5
DeVante Parker Under 58.5 Rec Yards (-122) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Same reason as Fitz. Bet to 55.5
Mike Gesicki to Score First TD 25-1 (0.1 units) [Bet now at PointsBet]
Gesicki offers some excellent value in this market. Bet to 22-1
Browns at Ravens Props
Jarvis Landry Under 55.5 Rec Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Landry had hip surgery over the offseason, and it was uncertain if he would even be ready by Week 1. He’s healthy enough to play but could be eased in. With the Browns operating with more 2-TE sets under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, it will decrease slot usage for Landry. Easy fade at this number. Bet to 52.5
J.K. Dobbins to Score First TD 22-1 (0.1 unit) [Bet now at DraftKings]
It’s a bit of a mystery how the Ravens will handle their RB situation initially, which can create value in the first TD market. Justice Hill is out this week so it’ll be Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and Dobbins in the RB rotation. Any one of those backs could handle a goal-line carry, and I like taking a flier on the rookie here. Bet to 20-1
Jets at Bills Props
He could be an even timeshare with rookie RB Zack Moss. Bet to 55.5 and 14.5
Stefon Diggs Over 51.5 Rec Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
I’ve discussed at length Diggs’ ability to improve his quarterback’s deep ball accuracy. I like his potential to haul in at least one 20-plus yard pass on Sunday. Josh Allen and the Bills likely want Diggs to get off to a fast start to welcome him in and avoid his early-season frustrations in Minnesota. Bet to 53.5
Cole Beasley Under 36.5 Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Beasley has a tougher matchup in the slot and could be the odd man out this week. Bet to 34.5
Zack Moss to Score First TD 14-1 (0.3 units) [Bet now at BetMGM]
This is my favorite first TD prop of the day — there’s enough value to warrant a 0.3 unit bet. Bet to 11-1
Raiders at Panthers Props
Derek Carr Under 271.5 Pass Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
I love the influx of pass-catching talent the Raiders added for Carr. He may need a couple of games to form chemistry with two rookie WRs in the starting lineup, though. The Raiders will likely be able to run the ball with ease on Carolina and won’t need to lean on Carr much. Bet to 262.5
Josh Jacobs Over 77.5 Rush Yards (-110) [Bet now at BetMGM]
This is a smash spot for Jacobs, and this bet correlates well with the Carr under. Bet to 81.5
Christian McCaffrey Under 19.5 Rush Att (-112) [Bet now at FanDuel]
The Panthers tend to give CMC targets as an extension of the running game. He saw 20 or more carries in only five of 16 games last year, and I highly doubt they give him that many carries in Week 1 after an abbreviated offseason. Bet to 18.5
Bears at Lions Props
Matthew Stafford Under 275.5 Pass Yards (-110) [Bet now at PointsBet]
Stafford will likely be without Kenny Golladay (doubtful), which will not only hurt Stafford’s yards per attempt, but the Lions may also lean on their run game a bit more — especially considering they’re loaded at the running back position now with Kerryon Johnson, D’Andre Swift and Adrian Peterson. Bet to 265.5
Quintez Cephus to Score First TD 55-1 (0.1 unit) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Ok, maybe I lied. This may be my favorite first TD scorer prop of the day. The rookie and Marvin Hall are expected to fill-in for Golladay. Hall is a 5-foot-9, 190-pound speedster who is an excellent deep ball threat while Cephus (6-foot-1 and 200 pounds) would be more likely to see red zone work. Cephus is worth a flier at this hefty price. Bet to 40-1
Chargers at Bengals Props
Keenan Allen Over 4.5 Rec (+110) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Allen will see a dip in volume with Tyrod Taylor under center, but this number is too low. Bet to -130