NFL Prop Bets and Picks: 10 Player Props To Lock In For Week 2
Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Marquise Brown.
- Six unders. Four overs. Ten total NFL prop bets for Sunday's main slate of Week 2 NFL action.
- Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, explains why the following player props are worth betting.
- By comparing odds to his projections, he exploits value for props across eight different games.
NFL player prop bets can offer a ton of value. I’ve identified 10 that are offering value for Sunday’s main slate based on my Week 2 player projections.
Let’s jump right in.
Week 2 NFL Prop Bets
Click on a game to skip ahead.
Falcons at Cowboys Props
Hayden Hurst Over 37.5 Rec Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Hurst was the odd man out last week as he matched up often with Jamal Adams, who is a TE stopper, but Dallas should open up more opportunities. Hurst ran a route on 80% of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks. Hurst has massive upside with that level of usage.
The targets should come his way in the very near future. Bet to 40.5
Panthers at Buccaneers Props
DJ Moore Over 61.5 Rec Yards (-110) [Bet now at PointsBet]
This is a buy-low opportunity for Moore after a 4/54/0 performance in Week 1. Panthers are the biggest underdog of Week 2 at +8.5 (compare real-time odds across sportsbooks here), but they should be forced into a pass-heavy game script.
Moore is a high-floor player, so I’m comfortable backing this over. Bet to 64.5
Broncos at Steelers Props
Drew Lock Under 1.5 Pass TDs (-176) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Lock has a brutal matchup against the Steelers. Courtland Sutton, K.J. Hamler and Albert Okwuegbunam may be making their season debuts, which is great news for Lock. However, I think we will want to fade this offense until their Week 3 matchup against the Jets.
Jaguars at Titans Props
Adam Humphries Over 3.5 Rec (-122) [Bet now at FanDuel]
A.J. Brown is out this week, and Corey Davis is playing through a hamstring issue. Considering the Titans are 7.5-point favorites against the Jaguars, expect them to play this close to the vest. I’m expecting a massive Derrick Henry game and Adam Humphries to potentially lead the team in targets.
Humphries is a high-floor play this week, and 4.5 would be a better number for this market. Bet up to -160
Rams at Eagles Props
Tyler Higbee Under 52.5 Rec Yards (-110) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Higbee’s Week 1 performance was disappointing given how well he played down the stretch in 2019. He ran a route on 65% of dropbacks, compared to 24% by Gerald Everett. The concerning part was that Everett missed part of the game due to a back injury. He should be good to go for Week 2 and should continue to eat into Higbee’s target share. Bet to 48.5
Vikings at Colts Props
Justin Jefferson Over 18.5 Rec Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
I had to do a double-take on this line — it is that bad.
I’m projecting Jefferson closer to 38.5 yards, so this is one of my favorite plays of the day. The first-round pick ran a route on 84% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks in Week 1. He saw only three targets, but I would expect around 5-5.5 on average with the amount of time he’s on the field. We should only expect him to get better as the season goes on, and this is the perfect time to buy low. Bet to 29.5
Jonathan Taylor Under 19.5 Rec Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Taylor was drafted more for his rushing ability but thrived as a pass-catcher in his debut, posting a six-catch performance for 67 yards. A lot of this had to do with the Colts abandoning the run game early as Philip Rivers attempted 46 passes.
I would expect Taylor to dominate the rushing work and Nyheim Hines to be the pass-catching back going forward. The Colts are 3-point favorites, and I would expect Taylor to have closer to two receptions. Bet to 17.5
Giants at Bears Props
Jimmy Graham Over 20.5 Rec Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Graham ran a route on 78% of dropbacks in Week 1, which was much higher than I was expecting. He’s going to have a very high floor with that level of usage, and my thinking is they want to use him heavily while he’s fresh.
Once rookie Cole Kmet is ready for more playing time, they will be able to limit Graham’s usage. Bet to 24.5
Ravens at Texans Props
Mark Ingram Under 55.5 Rush Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
The Ravens’ backfield is going to be a headache to project as long as Ingram, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are all healthy.
Offensive coordinator Greg Roman told the media that the team’s backfield rotation is “going to be different every week.” While I still expect Ingram to be the team’s lead back, it’s smart to bet the under on a yardage prop this high whenever you have this much uncertainty in a backfield.
I have him projected closer to 45.5. Bet to 50.5
Marquise Brown Over 49.5 rec yds (-110) [Bet now at BetMGM]
I can’t believe we are able to buy low on Hollywood Brown after he dropped 101 yards on the Browns in Week 1. His 80% routes run was encouraging and could have been higher if it weren’t for the blowout.
This week’s matchup against the Texans should be much more competitive, and I think he clears this line with ease. Bet to 54.5