NFL Prop Bets: The Ravens vs. Patriots Prop Pick For Sunday Night Football

NFL Prop Bets: The Ravens vs. Patriots Prop Pick For Sunday Night Football article feature image
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Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Marquise Brown.

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he was 71-50 (58.7%) heading into Sunday and has a 281-203-6 (58.1%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his pick for Sunday Night Football below.

NFL Prop Bets For Ravens vs. Patriots

  • The Pick: Marquise Brown Over 42.5 Rec Yds (-110)
  • Bet Now: BetMGM

It’s time to buy low on Hollywood Brown.

He’s had a reasonably disappointing season-to-date, but most of the blame can be placed on Lamar Jackson playing nowhere near his 2019 MVP season. Coming off a tough stretch of games against the Steelers’ and Colts’ elite defenses, Jackson should break out with a big game against the Patriots.

Jackson tends to play better against man defenses, which is excellent news considering that the Patriots play man defense at the highest rate in the league. It should provide Hollywood Brown with a boost tonight.

Brown has the third-highest Air Yard target share in the NFL at 42%. He’s been leaving many yards on the field, which is creating value on his over.

There could be some wind and rain in Foxborough, but it doesn’t sound like either should be a huge concern. And I don’t think Brown’s route tree would be too impacted by a bit of rain.

I’m projecting this closer to 49.5 and would bet the over up to 46.5 yards. Here are the projected chances of Brown going over or under various yardages based on my 10,000 player prop simulations for you to compare to your sportsbook(s):

Rec Yds
Over
Under
42.5
58.6%
41.4%
43.5
57.5%
42.5%
44.5
56.9%
43.1%
45.5
55.3%
44.7%
46.5
54.5%
45.5%
47.5
53.0%
47.0%
48.5
51.7%
48.3%
49.5
50.2%
49.8%
50.5
48.8%
51.2%

[Bet now at BetMGM and win $100 if a touchdown is scored]

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