Week 12 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Are the Browns Too Popular to Use?
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens congratulates Cleveland Browns defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi (65)
- The Browns are 10.5-point favorites against the Dolphins in Week 12, but are they too popular to pick in NFL survivor pools?
- Travis Reed uses his model to determine the smartest picks to keep you alive through Week 12.
After a week of upsets in Week 10, we went back to favorites all coming through in Week 11. The three most popular options last week made it closer than some would have liked, as the Raiders’, Vikings’ and 49ers’ wins were all in doubt in the fourth quarter.
I’m getting a lot of questions about how strategy changes later in the season. As the number of entrants decreases, the value of going contrarian dissipates somewhat.
If you are in a pool where there are only 10 people, you are likely better off maximizing your win percentages for the remainder of the season rather than trying to avoid the same pick as the other nine people left in your pool. It should still be a consideration, but is less meaningful than it would be early in the season.
With those thoughts in mind, here are the projected win percentages for the rest of the season.
Here are the top options this week with the key statistics to know.
The Browns are the most likely to win this week and the most popular pick, but not overwhelmingly so. Currently getting 38.5% of picks, I don’t think they are too high that you need to fade them.
The only reason not to take Cleveland this week is if you need to save them for later. They still have two remaining matchups against the Bengals in Weeks 14 and 17 that are both viable options.
The current betting market is higher on the Saints than I am, but they are still a good option this week.
The Steelers are next on the list, but probably my least favorite option, particularly if you are still involved in a larger pool. In that case I’d rather go contrarian with one of the other options in the list.
At this point in the season you should be able to map out the rest of the year. You can leave Week 17 as a question mark because teams resting key players will open up options that don’t currently look viable.