NFL Survivor Pool Picks & Expected Value Chart for Week 5: Last Chance to Take Vikings
Getty Images. Pictured: Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott, Bucs QB Tom Brady, Vikings RB Dalvin Cook
- Still alive in your NFL Survivor Pool? Congrats! Travis Reed breaks down his favorite contrarian survivor pick for Week 5.
- He projects win probability and usage by other pool participants to find the optimal play this week, which does not include big favorites like the Bucs or Cowboys.
Before I jump into the analysis for Week 5, let’s first recap what happened in Week 4.
Roughly one-third of survivor pool entries were eliminated last week. The largest chunk of them were on the Titans, who lost in overtime to the Jets. I was able to avoid this pitfall as I liked the Jets’ chances more than the market and thought the Titans were too popular.
I wasn’t able to avoid elimination with the Saints, though. They ended up being more popular than I predicted, but given the information I had at the time, I was still fine with the decision.
In hindsight, the only other option I would have considered taking is the Bears, as that would have been the only time I used them all season. But that is both the fun and agony of survivor pools — one misstep, and it’s all over.
NFL Survivor Pool Projections
For those of you still alive in your pools, here are the projected win percentages for the rest of the season.
And here are the top seven options for Week 5, complete with key statistics you need to make your decision:
There isn’t a clear cut option this week, which may be good news to you if you’ve already used some of the teams on the list.
I would avoid two teams shown above.
I don’t want to use the Bucs when there are so many other options this week and they’ll have many more usable weeks in the future.
The other team I wouldn’t take is the Cowboys. They’re getting tons of national attention thanks to a hot start and project to be the most popular pick this week. You’re better off rooting for a Giants upset and seeing 20-25% of the pool taken out.
NFL Survivor Pick For Week 5
Vikings (vs. Lions)
1 p.m. ET on Sunday
There is an interesting case to be made for taking the Ravens at low ownership, but I think the Vikings are the best overall play for Week 5.
Situations don’t get much better than playing the Lions at home, and because there are so many options this week, you can play the Vikings at a more depressed ownership than you would normally see.
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