NFL Weather Report: How Freezing Temps, Wind Are Affecting 7 Games
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports.
- Freezing temps across the midwest will impact a number of NFL games, though cold weather games have gone over at a high rate.
- Meanwhile, warm winds in Florida are driving down over/unders in Patriots-Dolphins and Saints-Buccaneers.
We've reached that time of year when you're probably better off staying home and watching football on your TV rather than going and freezing your butt off in the bleachers.
You can still drink beers and eat a bunch of meats and cheeses for several hours at your house without bearing the elements. Plus you'll save a chunk of change on parking, tickets, refreshments and the like.
We have a beefy slate on deck that features games with temps ranging from 25 to 84 degrees. And you wonder why the old folks move to Florida.
Cold Weather Games
The average temperature will be below freezing for the following matchups:
- Falcons-Packers: 25 degrees; 51.5 over/under
- Panthers-Browns: 30 degrees; 47 O/U
- Ravens-Chiefs: 28 degrees; 51 O/U
- Rams-Bears: 25 degrees; 51.5 O/U
You'd think that cold weather games would be good for unders, but that hasn't been the case historically.
Since 2003, the over has hit at a 57.2% rate in nearly 200 games with temperatures below 32 degrees per Bet Labs. They've done even better in games below 30 degrees, hitting at nearly a 59% rate.
These games all have pretty high totals compared to our historical sample set, as just 11 of the previous 190 have closed at 50 or higher.
The Falcons-Packers total has seen some decidedly sharp action on the over, rising from 48 to 51.5 since opening behind more than 90% of the cash as of writing (see live data here) and four Sports Insights' Bet Signals.
Other Noteworthy Weather
Like last week, both Tampa Bay and Miami are expected to be warm and windy. There will also be rain and some potential thunderstorms in the Tampa area, so there's a chance we could see a casual December lightning delay at Raymond James Stadium.
The totals have dropped in both Florida games, with Patriots-Dolphins falling from 48 to 47.5 and Saints-Buccaneers taking a big dip from 57.5 to 54.5.
Meanwhile, Jets-Bills is projected to be a tick above freezing with crosswinds in the 13 mph range. Just what those quarterbacks needed. The total in Buffalo has remained at 38 despite a surprising 70% of bets on the over.
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