Koerner’s Week 12 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS Bets & Straight-Up Picks

Koerner’s Week 12 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS Bets & Straight-Up Picks article feature image
Credit:

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Browns mascot

  • Sean Koerner uses his proprietary model and projections to identify his best against-the-spread picks and straight-up bets.
  • You'll find his Week 12 rankings below, as well as a spreadsheet to return personalized rankings based on the odds you input.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 12 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

NFL Week 12 Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 12 then wrap it up with ATS.


Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings


Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. Browns

Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 86.1%

2. Saints

Matchup: vs. CAR
Confidence Rating: 79.6%

3. Patriots

Matchup: vs. DAL
Confidence Rating: 72.9%

T-4. Steelers

Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 71.4%

T-4. Bears

Matchup: vs. NYG
Confidence Rating: 71.4%

6. Falcons

Matchup: vs. TB
Confidence Rating: 66.8%

7. Bills

Matchup: vs. DEN
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-8. Texans

Matchup: vs. IND
Confidence Rating: 62%

T-8. Titans

Matchup: vs. JAX
Confidence Rating: 62%

T-8. 49ers

Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 62%

T-11. Lions

Matchup: @ WAS
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-11. Ravens

Matchup: @ LAR
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-13. Raiders

Matchup: @ NYJ
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-13. Eagles

Matchup: vs. SEA
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-15. Seahawks

Matchup: @ PHI
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

T-15. Jets

Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

T-17. Redskins

Matchup: vs. DET
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-17. Rams

Matchup: vs. BAL
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-19. Colts

Matchup: @ HOU
Confidence Rating: 38%

T-19. Jaguars

Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 38%

T-19. Packers

Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 38%

22. Broncos

Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

23. Buccaneers

Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 33.2%

T-24. Giants

Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 28.6%

T-24. Bengals

Matchup: vs. PIT
Confidence Rating: 28.6%

26. Cowboys

Matchup: @ NE
Confidence Rating: 27.1%

27. Panthers

Matchup: @ NO
Confidence Rating: 20.4%

28. Dolphins

Matchup: @ CLE
Confidence Rating: 13.9%


Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings


Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Jets

Spread: 3
Opponent: vs. OAK

2. Redskins

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. DET

T-3. Browns

Spread: -10.5
Opponent: vs. MIA

T-3. Rams

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. BAL

T-5. Colts

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: @ HOU

T-5. Broncos

Spread: 4
Opponent: @ BUF

7. Bengals

Spread: 6.5
Opponent: vs. PIT

8. Panthers

Spread: 9.5
Opponent: @ NO

T-9. Falcons

Spread: -4.5
Opponent: vs. TB

T-9. Eagles

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. SEA

T-11. Packers

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: @ SF

T-11. Titans

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. JAX

13. Cowboys

Spread: 6.5
Opponent: @ NE

T-14. Giants

Spread: 6.5
Opponent: @ CHI

T-14. Bears

Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. NYG

16. Patriots

Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. DAL

T-17. Jaguars

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: @ TEN

T-17. 49ers

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. GB

T-19. Buccaneers

Spread: 4.5
Opponent: @ ATL

nfl betting picks-odds-week 10 early analysis
Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson.

T-19. Seahawks

Spread: 1.5
Opponent: @ PHI

21. Saints

Spread: -9.5
Opponent: vs. CAR

22. Steelers

Spread: -6.5
Opponent: @ CIN

T-23. Texans

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. IND

T-23. Bills

Spread: -4
Opponent: vs. DEN

T-25. Ravens

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ LAR

T-25. Dolphins

Spread: 10.5
Opponent: @ CLE

27. Lions

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ WAS

28. Raiders

Spread: -3
Opponent: @ NYJ


Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like: