Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I'd make before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly, so it's important that you make your Week 5 NFL picks as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 5 predictions I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread; the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 5 Picks
Vikings vs Browns Pick
Just an early heads up, you may want to sleep in next Sunday.
The Vikings and Browns' defensive units both ranked top-3 in DVOA entering last week. Meanwhile, both offensive units ranked in the bottom-quartile in DVOA.
The only positive thing for either offense has been the run game. The Vikings' offense ranks top-5 rushing DVOA, but this one might be an uphill climb for them against the top run defense in the league.
The Browns' offensive line will be without both starting tackles up front, which may be a disaster against Brian Flores and the Vikings' defense, especially with Joe Flacco basically being a statue at this point of his career.
The Vikings' offensive line is also banged-up. RT Brian O'Neill and C Ryan Kelly seem unlikely to play. LG Donovan Jackson is already out, while LT Christian Darrisaw is still limited.
Carson Wentz continues to hold onto the ball too long, which is going to be a big problem against Myles Garrett and the Browns' pass rush.
This total has already fallen to 36.5 at some books, and 37 is the last key number for totals moving downward.
Typically, once a total drops that low, books cant drop it low enough.
Since 2012, totals below 36 are 16-5 to the under (76%), with those games staying south of the number by an average of 4.1 points per game.
Pick: Under 37.5
Giants vs Saints Pick
Everyone is excited about Jaxson Dart winning his first career start for the Giants, but let's temper expectations.
The Giants' offense recorded 250 total yards in last week's win over the Chargers. However, 89 of those yards came on the opening drive of the game.
Dart only finished with 111 passing yards in the game. The Giants scored a huge chunk of their points by cashing in on short drives following turnovers forced by their defense.
The loss of Malik Nabers is also a huge deal for New York moving forward. When you subtract Nabers from the equation, the Giants have the worst offensive weaponry in the league with a bullet; simply barren.
Cam Skattebo is running the ball well for the Giants right now. However, the Saints' run defense was top-10 entering this past weekend, which is the only real strength of this team.
These are the two worst teams in my power rankings. I have them almost dead-even.
The Giants and Cowboys combined for 77 total points in their matchup a few weeks ago. However, the Giants' other three games have seen totals of 27, 31, and 39 scored in them (32.3 points per game).
Brian Daboll road unders have hit at a 59% rate historically. Daboll is also 24-14-1 (63%) to the under when the total is south of 44; the best active mark in that department.
Every point matters when we are talking about totals in the low-40s. Grab this number as early as you can.
Pick: Under 42.5
