After a quiet four weeks, NFL survivor contests suddenly got interesting in Week 5.
The first four weeks eliminated roughly 40% of the field (at least in contests where ties lose), while in Week 5, well over half of the survivors were bounced, bringing us down to less than 30% remaining. Unfortunately, that eliminated group also included one of the two teams we recommended here, with the other surviving. We'll move forward assuming you played the Lions in Week 5 — since if you used the Rams, you aren't reading this article.
I'll still be separating picks by small- and large-field contest types, but this week's options come down more to risk tolerance and which teams you have remaining than the size of the contest.
That brings us to my NFL Week 6 survivor picks.
The concept is simple: Pick one team that wins an NFL game every week. No spreads or totals, just winners. Once you use that team, they're done — creating an element of strategy and long-term planning that makes these contests deceptively difficult.
Fortunately, we've continued our partnership with our friends at Pool Genius to make things easier. They've built slate-leading tools to help conquer a variety of pool contests, including survivor.
My favorite feature of the site is the ability to customize for your individual pool type. Factors like contest size and payout structure are huge factors in survivor contests, as smaller fields generally don't have any entries make it all 18 weeks.
To give a glimpse of how that works, throughout the season, I'll be providing their top option for small (less than 100) and large (1,000+) entry pools. Additionally, they track pick selection data to help identify contrarian options. This is particularly helpful in larger NFL pools, as we're trying to optimize for expected value rather than just the odds of winning.
Finally, they use projected future spreads to assign a future value to each team — which includes considering the scarcity of strong options on certain weeks. This is crucial as we don't want to burn the best teams when there are other strong options that week.
To get their full data, you'll need to sign up for the site. It's well worth it, though, and it also includes tools for taking down the increasingly popular pick'em contests that feature massive prize pools.
NFL Survivor Picks — Week 6
Large Field: Los Angeles Rams
In the words of Michael Scott, I'm ready to get hurt again.
The Rams were last week's most popular selection and lost in an upset to the 49ers, taking out about a quarter of survivor players.
For those that remain, Los Angeles seems to be in a good spot again. They're taking on the Ravens, who will likely be without star quarterback Lamar Jackson, among a host of other key injuries. That explains why the Rams moneyline is around -400 heading into their game in Baltimore.
Of course, last week the Rams took on a 49ers team missing their quarterback and dealing with key injuries to other positions. We know how that one worked out.
However, the upside is that it is keeping the Rams' popularity extremely low, while they also have limited future value with only one other week where they're expected to be favored by 70% or better. Plus, there's an equally strong option that week that most of the field won't have available, which we'll get to in a second.
This is also an important time to be aware of your contest's rules. There's still a shot Jackson plays, and we probably won't know definitively until this weekend.
In contests where picks lock on Thursday night, I'd be a bit more wary of the Rams. However, in contests where picks lock when their specific game kicks off, there's a strong/obvious team to pivot to.
It's extremely hard to trust the Rams if you're down to a single entry left alive, but that's precisely what makes them a good play if you have the stomach for it.
Small Field: Green Bay Packers
The Packers have eliminated a big chunk of the field this season, with an upset loss to the Browns and a tie with the Cowboys — although ties advance in many survivor pools.
However, since then, they've had a bye week to regroup and are taking on a Bengals team that just acquired Joe Flacco, who will be their third starting quarterback of the season. It's hard to see Flacco and the Bengals having much success against a well-rested Packers defense led by Micah Parsons.
Green Bay is a massive favorite, with moneyline odds approaching -1000. That's almost certainly the best odds it will have all season, making this a logical time to use them despite strong future value. The only other spot you might consider the Packers in is Week 9 — which is also when the Rams have similar odds.
Assuming you survive the weeks in between, the choice really boils down to whether to use Green Bay now and the Rams in Week 9, or vice versa.
Green Bay now is the safer option, buying you an extra 10% win equity this week and 2% or so in Week 9. The Rams now is the bigger swing since you'll be going against the grain in both weeks, although you'd need one of them to lose in the week you didn't use them for that to matter, since following Week 9, you'll have burned both of them either way.
Of course, smaller field contests might not make it that far. If you're in a pool that's down to a couple of dozen players or less, take the safe option with Green Bay.
