NFL Week 8 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Our newest lesson came in Week 7. Even when overs start hot, unders seem to be inevitable.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 8 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, October. 29, 1 p.m. ET.

Streaks on the line in San Francisco.

• 49ers have covered the spread in 10 consecutive home games dating back to last season, the longest home cover streak in the NFL (also the 49ers' longest home cover streak since 1960). An 11th straight win would be a home streak record in last 20 years, wins or losses by any team.
• As an underdog of 3 or more points, Joe Burrow is 14-2 ATS in the NFL and was 5-1 ATS in college (19-3 ATS overall). Since the start of 2021, Burrow is 15-0 in a 6-pt teaser when listed as an underdog and Bengals are 16-0 in 6-pt teaser as an underdog.

Unders continue to roll across the NFL. At 64-41-1 (61%), it is still the best win percentage for unders through seven weeks in the Wild Card era.

In the last 25 NFL regular season weeks, there have only been three seasons where there were more overs than unders for full game totals. (Three overs, 15 unders, seven pushes.)

Panthers are 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS entering Week 8. They are the 8th team in the Wild Card era to start 0-6 with no ATS covers.

• 2023 CAR 0-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS
• 2020 NYJ 0-6 SU/ATS
• 2011 MIA 0-6 SU/ATS
• 2011 LAR 0-6 SU/ATS
• 1998 WAS 0-6 SU/ATS
• 1997 CHI 0-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS
• 1991 IND 0-6 SU/ATS
• 1991 CIN 0-6 SU/ATS

If the Panthers lose and don't cover in Week 8, they would be the first 0-7 SU, no cover team since Washington in 1998.

Mike Tomlin is a home dog, again. As a home underdog, he's 16-10 SU and 18-5-3 ATS (78.3%) in the regular season and playoffs. The 78.3% mark is best home dog ATS win percentage in Wild Card era.

Mac Jones is 0-5 ATS in his career vs. Dolphins. He’s 16-17-1 ATS vs. all other teams. He joins Sam Darnold as the only QBs at 0-5 ATS or worse vs. Miami over the last 20 years. Jones has failed to cover the spread by 7 PPG vs. Miami.

At -9.5, this would be largest Dolphins spread vs. New England since 2001, at -10 it would be their highest since 1992.

The Chiefs have won 13 consecutive division games outright. Their last loss? Sept. 26. 2021 against the Chargers and Justin Herbert.

The longest division win streak in modern era is 16 straight wins. Last streak of 14 to 15 Ws: 1993-94 DAL 14, 1968-70 NYJ 15

Not to mention: Mahomes is 16-0 SU on road/neutral field vs. AFC West, 20-0 SU on the road/neutral field as a favorite of over 5 points & 12-0 SU vs. Broncos, with Kansas City winning 16 straight over Denver SU.

• Primetime unders are 16-7 this season, 155-102-3 (60%) since 2019.
• NFL first half unders are now 85-61-2 in night games since 2021, including 24-15-1 on TNF and 28-17 on MNF in that span.
• Thursday home teams are just 25-33 SU, 22-36 ATS since 2020, including 20-32 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night).
  Since 2020, Thursday home teams at night 20-32 ATS. All other days of the week, 78-68-3 ATS.
• Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 24-28 SU. They are 89-60 SU on all other nights.
• Who is the most profitable team to fade ATS since start of last season? Bucs, 16-7-1 ATS, tied with Bears.
• Teams coming off two or more straight up losses, playing on short rest are 135-182 SU (42.6%) last 20 years.
  Underdogs are 62-140 SU in this spot.
• Baker Mayfield is 32-44-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,350 (272nd of 278 QBs in the last 20 years).
  Baker is 20-20 ATS as an underdog and 12-24-1 ATS as a favorite
• Todd Bowles teams have struggled mightily off of a loss. They are 18-31 SU and 18-29-2 ATS in that spot, including 1-9-1 ATS with the Bucs.
• Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches to back in the NFL as an underdog.
  14-38 SU, 20-29-3 ATS as an underdog (23-15 SU as a favorite)
  His 20-28-3 ATS mark is 143rd of 147 coaches last 20 years and worst of all active head coaches.
• Short rest hasn’t been too bad to Baker. Mayfield is 6-3 SU/ATS in his career on short rest.
  He’s covered four in a row in this spot.
• Bucs had the longest ATS road losing streak in the NFL entering the season (six games) and then covered and won on the road in Minnesota in Week 1 and in New Orleans in Week 4.
  Bucs are 7-12 ATS on the road since start of 2021, fourth-worst mark in the NFL
• Mayfield will be making his 13th start at night. His teams are 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS.
  Mayfield last four night games since 2021: 0-4 SU/ATS. Points scored: 11, 12, 14, 10
  Baker has played two TNF games. He’s 2-0 SU/ATS (both with Browns).
• This will be Mayfield’s 10th career game on short rest. He’s 6-3 SU/ATS, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
• Todd Bowles in night games
  6-2 SU on road
  2-7 SU at home
• Bucs are in a tough spot historically. Off a homestand (two or more consecutive home games), teams on short rest playing on the road are 33-47 SU last 20 years, losing by over a FG per game.

• Betting teams after a loss as a big favorite has been a good spot. Teams off a loss as a 7-pt favorite or higher are 55.6% ATS next week last 20 years and 40-32-1 ATS since 2018.
• Florida teams have historically struggled heading to Buffalo. The Jaguars, Bucs and Dolphins are a combined 7-23 SU in Buffalo over the last 20 years, losing by 8 PPG.
  They’ve lost 10 games in a row SU, with the last win coming from the Dolphins in 2016.
  Since 2012, these Florida teams are 1-16 SU in Buffalo.
• Josh Allen is 4-5-1 ATS after facing the Patriots, but 0-4-1 ATS in his last five starts after New England. Not the easiest spot for Allen.
• Josh Allen has 59 wins in his career and 45 of those 59 wins have been by 7 points or more.
• Allen has turnover issues.
  Regular Season:
  He has 67 INTs since 2018, second-most in NFL (Baker has 68).
  He has 55 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL.
  In the regular season: Allen still has not had consecutive starts without a giveaway since Weeks 15-16, 2020.
• Allen is just 13-11-2 ATS after a SU loss in his career, including 2-4-1 ATS in his last 7.
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career.
  Allen is 31-19-3 ATS on seven days rest (11th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)
  He’s 7-8-1 ATS on short rest and 6-11-1 ATS on extended rest.
• The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 55-33-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the second-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 251 QBs.
  Allen is 4-1 2H ATS on Thursday games.
• Allen is 14-6 SU, 11-9 ATS in night games, including 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS at home.
  Bills have lost three straight home night games ATS (won SU).
  Allen’s one SU loss at night at home? To the Patriots and Mac Jones.
• Something about the AFC East. After facing the division, he’s not so great ATS following week.
  After facing AFC East: 12-19-1 ATS
  After facing all other teams: 32-18-4 ATS
• Allen hasn’t bounced back well off division losses. He’s 3-7 ATS in his next game after AFC East loss and 10-4-2 ATS when facing non AFC East team after a loss.
• After a loss, Allen has been favored by 7 points or more 10 times. He’s 10-0 SU, 6-2-2 ATS.
  When Allen is favored by 3 points or more after a SU loss, he’s 14-2 SU, 9-5-2 ATS.
• As a home favorite, Allen, Bills are 30-7 SU. He’s ninth in the NFL in ML profitability last 20 years.
  As a home favorite of 7 or more, Allen is 18-1 SU, including 12-0 SU as a double-digit home favorite. He lost to the Colts in 2021.
• Allen is 18-5 SU, 14-8-1 ATS vs. NFC in his career.

• Saints had their first over last week since November of 2022.
  They are 6-1 to the under this year, 12-1 last 13, 15-2 in last 17 and 27-14 since start of 2021 season.
• Road Warriors. Here are the Saints ML record over the past few seasons, home vs. road.
  Last three: Home: 7-11 SU | Road: 12-11 SU
  Last five: Home: 20-17 SU | Road: 25-14 SU
• Saints are 31-14 SU, 28-16-1 ATS on the road since 2018, the second-most profitable team ATS on the road in that span (Bengals are first; they are the most profitable team on ML).
• Derek Carr covers vs. good defenses and tends to lose ATS vs. bad defenses. Based on how many PPG opposing defenses give up against Carr:
  Fewer than 21 PPG: 31-21 ATS
  21 PPG or more: 32-53-3 ATS
• Allen-coached teams are just 12-19-1 ATS vs. teams who are under .500 SU on the season
• In his career, Dennis Allen is 18-42 SU. His 30% win percentage is seventh-worst among all head coaches in the Super Bowl era. Here is the worst list since 2000:
  Hue Jackson, Steve Spagnuolo, Gus Bradley, Pat Shurmur, Dave McGinnis, Dennis Allen.
• Dennis Allen is a bit better with some prep.
  Short rest: 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS
  Normal rest: 9-26 SU, 12-23 ATS
  Extended rest + Week 1: 8-8 SU, 8-6-2 ATS
  He’s 10-34 SU, 14-30 ATS on short or normal rest as a head coach
• Allen is 22-36-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
  Allen’s 22-36-2 ATS mark is third-worst for any coach last 20 years:

1. Jon Gruden, 146. Mike Shanahan, 145. Dennis Allen

• Derek Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the fifth time in his career this year, and is still struggling to cover the spread. 26-34-2 ATS in those previous 4 seasons and 1-5-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 1-5-1 ATS
• Looks like the Saints could be favorites vs. Colts, which isn’t a good thing for Derek Carr.
  Favorite: 17-34-2 ATS (worst of all QBs last 20 years)
  Underdog: 52-44-1 ATS
• Carr was 17-29-2 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,286. Now with the Saints he is 0-5-1 ATS as a favorite.
  Carr hasn’t had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016
• In games where Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled.
  As favorite or underdog of 3 or less: 35-49-3 ATS
  Dog of more than 3 points: 34-29 ATS
• Carr is 21-34-2 ATS on the road since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 22-23-1 ATS at home in that span.

• Colts are the only NFL team to score 20 points in every game this season. They’ve scored 20 or more in eight straight games.
  The second-longest streak? Jaguars with four games.
• Bad system for the Colts. “Bad” teams (four wins or fewer year before), who are on a 2+ game losing streak, but are covering 50%+ of their games, just 73-108-4 ATS (40%) last 20 years, 7-16 ATS last three seasons.
• Colts opened as an underdog and are now the favorites. Those such teams are 42-81 ATS since 2019 and 6-9 ATS this season.
• Minshew vs. team on extended rest (eight or more days): 0-3 SU, losing by 12.7 PPG.
• Anthony Richardson is most likely done for the season. Which means in Indy its Minshew Time.
  Minshew is 3-10 SU in “toss up” games – a spread of 4 points or less
• Colts got Jonathan Taylor back in the mix a bit and scored 38 points in the loss
  Colts when Taylor gets 10+ carries: 21-17-1 SU
  Fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play: 6-12 SU
• Gardner Minshew is 2-12 SU in his last 14 starts – he broke a streak of 8 consecutive losses SU as a dog against the Ravens earlier this season. He’s 3-10 ATS in his last 13 starts (5-10 ATS since 2020).
• Colts QBs have struggled in the back up role. They are 5-16 SU (10-11 ATS) since 2017.
• When Minshew’s opponent scores more than 20 points, he is 1-15 SU.
• Minshew is 2-8 SU vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or less on the season.

• Jaguars opened as an underdog and are now the favorites. Those such teams are 42-81 ATS since 2019 and 6-9 ATS this season.
• Jaguars are 5-2 SU through seven games this season, their best start since 2007.
  Jaguars have won and covered 4 consecutive games.
  Jacksonville hasn’t covered 5 straight games since 2010 (6 straight ATS covers)
• The Jaguars franchise has existed since 1995. They’ve never won and covered the spread in 5 consecutive games.
• Jaguars have won 8 straight road/neutral games ATS dating back to last season
  Jacksonville’s longest away from home ATS winning streak in franchise history
  In the last 20 years, the longest road/neutral ATS streak is 9 done by five different teams, most recently Chiefs in 2017-17.
• After the Jaguars won on the road on Thursday Night Football, they get 10 days rest before Pittsburgh.
  Lawrence has played four career games on extended rest (eight or more days): 2-2 SU/ATS, but he’s won and covered 2 in a row dating back to start of last season.
  Including Week 1s, Lawrence is 3-4 SU/ATS on extended rest in the pros.
• Pederson has had success on extended rest/prep, too.
  He’s 14-8 SU, 13-9 ATS on extended rest and 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS in Week 1s, for a combined 19-10 SU, 17-12 ATS in his career.
• When it comes to covering the number, Lawrence likes facing good teams. The Jaguars have covered 8 straight games vs. teams above .500 SU. Over the last two seasons, Lawrence is 8-3 ATS in this spot
• Lawrence is just 5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS as a favorite in his NFL career.
  Since he was drafted in 2021, he’s the seventh-least profitable QB as a favorite on the ML.
  Lawrence is 5-1 SU in his last six starts as a favorite
• Lawrence is 13-19 SU as an underdog in his career, but 10-7 SU since the start of last season (3-12 SU as a dog in his rookie year).
• Lawrence has been made into a different QB with Doug Pederson
  w/ Pederson: 15-11 SU/ATS
  w/ Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer: 3-14 SU, 5-12 ATS
• Lawrence is 20-23 against 1H spread career, but this season has been a turn around for Lawrence. He is 6-1 1H ATS this season, best mark in the NFL.
• Lawrence is 16-9-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – the third-most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL behind Joe Burrow & Geno Smith.
• Looking for a Lawrence anytime TD? He’s scored in just six of 43 career games – his last coming in December of last year.
• Lawrence on the moneyline as an underdog
  Home: 7-6 SU
  Road/Neutral: 6-13 SU (4-1 SU in last 5)
• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
  Underdog: 32-23 ATS (7-1 ATS last 8 games)
  Favorite: 26-31 ATS

• Teams to travel from EST to PST have had 1H success going 102-63-3 1H ATS since 2017. In Week 8 that’s the Steelers.
• Mike Tomlin has always struggled with the Jaguars, especially at home.
  He’s 1-4 SU at home in his career vs. Jaguars, including 0-2 SU in playoffs.
• Steelers return home from west coast this week. They are 11-5 SU PST to EST under Tomlin, including 10-3 SU at home in this spot.
• Steelers have traveled PST to EST for this home game – eighth time they’ve done that under Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS.
• The Steelers have played 41 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense.
  The longest active streak in the NFL, longest streak since Rams in 2014-17. They are fifth team last 20 years with this long of a streak,
• Steelers are 47-45 SU, 57-31-4 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin, making a $100 bettor $2,360, making him the most profitable coach as a dog in the last 20 years.
  Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016 and it's only happened twice under Tomlin.
  PIT is 4-1 SU, ATS as an underdog in 2023.
• Tomlin as a home dog: 16-10 SU, 18-5-3 ATS
  The 18-5-3 ATS mark is best home dog ATS win pct in Wild Card era.
  Steelers like the challenge. As home dogs, facing team with 60%+ win pct, they are 14-3-1 ATS.
  Tomlin: 8-3 ATS at home vs. team on four-plus game win streak.
  When Steelers open -2.5 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 24-12-4 ATS under Tomlin at home and 72-44-5 ATS career.
• Tomlin is 46-20-2 ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward, including 38-30 SU on the moneyline.
• Tomlin is 36-18-2 ATS as an underdog when facing above .500 SU teams – best in NFL last 20 years. In that spot vs. AFC? 26-12-2 ATS for Tomlin.

• No. 1 pick Bryce Young faces No. 2 pick CJ Stroud.
  QBs went 1-2 in the 2023 draft for the 10th time in the Super Bowl era. This will be the fourth time both QBs will meet that same season.
  2023 Bryce/Stroud, 2021 Trevor/Wilson, 2015 Winston/Mariota, 1998 Manning/Leaf
  Home team is 2-1 SU/ATS, overs are 2-1.
  Both California high school QBs.
  Contacts: #1: Bryce Young, $37.9M #2: C.J. Stroud, $36.2M
• Both Panthers and Texans are off a bye for this matchup.
  When two teams play both on a bye, favorite is 38-23-1 SU last 20 years.
• System tells you to fade Houston this week. Teams covering by 5+ PPG on the season, who didn’t make playoffs year before are 45.2% ATS last 20 years – under .500 ATS in 19 consecutive seasons.
• Texans opened as an underdog and are now the favorites. Those such teams are 42-81 ATS since 2019 and 6-9 ATS this season.
• Texans are off a bye week facing the Panthers this week.
  Here’s a quirk. Texans haven’t retired home off a bye week since 2013, nine straight road games. This now being their 10th straight. They are 6-3 SU in those games.
• Most QB pass attempts this season, 1 INT or fewer
  Texans C.J. Stroud – 213 Pass Attempts
  Colts Anthony Richardson – 84 Pass Attempts
  Giants Tyrod Taylor – 80 Pass Attempts
• QBs with 9+ pass TD, 1 or fewer INT & 1,500+ pass yards through six career starts? CJ Stroud.
• After starting his career 0-2 ATS, Stroud has covered the spread in his last four starts.
  He’s excelled in the first half, going 5-1 1H ATS this season.
  Best 1H ATS: Lawrence 6-1, Stroud 5-1
• Stroud is 4-1 ATS as an underdog in his early career, 0-1 ATS as a favorite.
• Texans have won 4 games or less SU three straight years (2020-22) – last team to do it four straight years? 1972-75 Bears.

• When either team is allowing 30 PPG or more, the under is 101-79-4 in the last 20 years.
• Panthers might be in a bad spot as a home dog off extended rest. Home dogs off 8 days rest or more are 3-8 ATS this season and 38-55-2 ATS in the last decade.
• In Frank Reich’s coaching career, he’s coached four games off a bye, his teams are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS.
  Coaches 4-0 SU or better off bye last 20 years: Sean McDermott 7-0, Frank Reich 4-0
• Teams listed as 14+ point dogs in their previous game are 40-23 1H ATS in their next game since 2015.
• Frank Reich is 1-9 SU, 2-7-1 ATS as a home underdog as coach of the Panthers and Colts
• Panthers are the lone winless teams SU this season.
  Overall, teams without a SU win are 414-381-23 ATS (52.1%) last 20 years, but in their seventh game or later an even 51-51 ATS.
  Winless home dogs have struggled this late, too: 21-30 ATS
• Panthers are 0-6 SU for the second time in franchise history with just 1998.
  2023: 0-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS
  1998: 0-6 SU, 1-3-2 ATS
• What a first half ATS rollercoaster Frank Reich teams have gone through.
  2023 Panthers: 4-2 1H ATS
  2022 Colts: 0-9 1H ATS
  2018-21 Colts: 42-25-1 1H ATS (Reich second-best in NFL)
• Bryce Young is 0-5 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 62-124-2 SU in their first season.
  Bryce Young’s longest completion is 30 yds this season. Of 35 QBs with 60+ pass attempts, that’s lowest of any QB.
• Panthers and former Colts coach Frank Reich usually plays to his role
  As favorite: 30-13-1 SU
  As underdog: 11-28 SU
• Panthers went over their win total last year (6.5; 7 wins). They haven’t eclipsed their win total in consecutive years since 2002-03.
  Since 2002, there have been 31 instances of a team drafting a quarterback in the top 10 who then went on to start at least eight games as a rookie, and those teams combined to go 11-18-2 (37.9%) toward their win-total over. Over the past 10 years, they’ve been even worse, going just 4-11-2 (26.7%). Bryce Young has started three games so far this year.

Rookie Starting QBs Under 6-foot in First Season
2023 Bryce Young 0-5 SU
2020 PJ Walker 1-0 SU
2019 Kyler Murray 5-11 SU
2012 Russell Wilson 11-5 SU
1986 Doug Flutie 1-0 SU
1976 Pat Haden 5-2 SU

Highest Team O/U – Draft QB First Overall in WC Era (since 1990)
1992 Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
2023 Panthers/Bryce Young – 7.5 (0-6 SU)
2016 Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5 (4-12 SU)

• Impact of Lane Johnson.
  Without him: 13-22 SU
  With him: 85-48-1 SU
• Hurts is 19-6 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• Eagles are 12-2 1H ML in their last 14 games. Hurts is 24-14-3 1H ML in his career.
  Since start of last season, Eagles are 19-4-1 1H ML – most 1H ML wins in NFL.
• Jalen Hurts has won each of last five regular-season starts in which Eagles trailed by 10+ points.
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  Home: 15-6-1 ATS (third of 91 QBs since 2020)
  Road/Neutral: 9-14 ATS (89th of 91 QBs since 2020)
  This season though, Hurts is 3-1 SU/ATS on the road after the Jets loss.
• Hurts is tied for the NFL lead in INT (8). He was 66-1 to lead NFL in preseason for the entire year.
• Hurts has been money as a favorite. His teams are 27-6 SU as a favorite w/ Hurts as the starter, including 27-4 SU when the Eagles are favored by 3 points or more.
  Hurts is 27-4 SU as a favorite in his last 31 starts.
• Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. Eagles are 8-10 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 20-4 SU under that mark.
• As a favorite of 4 points or more, Jalen Hurts is 20-2 SU in his career. His only losses are to Taylor Heinicke and Zach Wilson.
• Hurts has faced Washington on the road twice, 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS.
• Hurts is 9-1 SU in his last 10 NFC East games. Only loss vs. Washington.
  Hurts started 0-3 SU on road in division, now 3-0 SU since.

• Ron Rivera likes the rah rah spot. 24-15-1 ATS as dog vs. own division, including 8-4-1 ATS w. Washington
• Washington is 1 of 3 teams this week playing consecutive division games. Teams in that spot:
  Coming off loss: +4.1% ROI
  As underdog: +2.2% ROI
• Sam Howell has been sacked 40 times so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL.

Most Times Sacked as QB — Through seven Games
43 — David Carr, 2002
40 — Sam Howell, 2023 (sacked 6x today)
37 — David Carr, 2005

NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year in the NFL.
+ The dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 59-43-2 ATS as an underdog and 47-52-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
+ In the last four seasons, Rivera-coached games are 35-21-2 (63%) to the under.
In that span, Rivera is the third-best coach to under: Joe Judge, Sean McVay, Ron Rivera
+ Under in Commanders home games is 20-8-1 since 2020 – second-best in the NFL behind the Giants (20-6-1)
+ Rivera has had issues covering the 1H spread. Washington is 2-5 1H ATS this season and 27-41-2 1H ATS since 2019 – worst coach 1H ATS in NFL.

• Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have worked together well. Stats since Kupp came back.
  Kupp: 28 targets, 17 receptions | Nacua: 30 targets, 19 receptions
  Puka’s 58 receptions and 82 targets most through seven games all-time. His 752 receiving yards is two behind Ja’Marr Chase’s 754 through seven games.
• Matthew Stafford is 3-12-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – worst mark in the NFL. Last 5 years, he is 20-39-2 2H ATS, the second-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Baker Mayfield.
• Stafford is 29-72 SU as an underdog in his career, including 1-7 SU last two seasons.
  $100 bettor is down $2,446 last 20 years, worst in the NFL.
• Stafford has lost four straight SU vs. Cowboys, last win in 2013.
• Stafford can’t hold a lead.
  He’s 31-56-2 2H ATS after leading at half. Haven’t covered in the reg season w this since before Christmas 2021 — nine straight.
  5-13-1 w Rams
  26-43-1 w Lions
  He’s 46-47-1 2H ATS when trailing at halftime.
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
  Sept/Oct: 36-16 SU
  Nov. on: 34-29 SU
• McVay is 25-16-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 34-36-3 ATS vs. all other visions
• Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013.
  Rams, Stafford are 4-2-1 ATS this season.
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 31-65 SU and 36-58-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU – least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years.
  He is 8-8 SU and 6-10 ATS with Rams in this spot.
  When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse he is 57-37 SU and 47-43-4 ATS.
• How has McVay performed as an underdog? 13-22 SU, but 19-14-2 ATS (25-10 in a 6-pt teaser).
• Rams lost 7 straight road games SU entering this season. Now 2-1 SU on the road to open the year.

• Dak Precott tends to perform well as a big favorite. He’s 31-7 SU, 26-11-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 points or more
  He’s 21-4 SU, 16-8-1 ATS as a 6-point favorite or more at home
• Cowboys are coming off a win before the bye against the Chargers.
• Dak is 6-0 ATS coming off a loss last two seasons and 4-8 ATS off a SU win.
• Cowboys are coming off a bye at home after a win against the Chargers in Week 6.
  No advantage for Dak, he’s 3-3 SU/ATS off a bye.
  McCarthy is 14-7 SU off a bye, but 2-2 with DAL and 12-5 with GB.
• If you bet on Dak to throw an INT in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). Second was Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.
  This year? You would be down a unit betting on a Dak INT.
• Dak does well vs. bad teams. He is 32-10 SU, 27-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 21-22 SU, 17-26 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
  The 27-13-2 ATS mark is second best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
• Dak is 25-10 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,378), 34-38-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$591)
• Mike McCarthy has excelled ATS early in the season. He’s 69-48-3 ATS in Sept & Oct, the second-best coach ATS in that timeframe in the last 20 years behind just Bill Belichick.
• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has 10 targets in the red zone this season, most among TEs in the NFL.
• Can the Cowboys keep it going? Last three seasons…
  After a loss SU: 11-1 ATS
  After a win SU: 15-13 ATS

• Can Patriots do it again?
  Teams off a SU win as a 7-point dog or higher are 118-178-1 SU (39.9%) last 20 years
  When they are listed as the underdog again? 58-144-1 SU (28.7%). When a 7-point dog or higher again? 10-70-1 SU (12.5%).
• A fun trip to Florida. Teams who go from a home game to a road game in Florida (TB, JAC, MIA) are just 159-142-10 ATS over the last 20 years. But earlier in the season is another story – Week 6 matches: IND, DET
  Sept-Oct: 76-46-3 ATS
  Nov on: 83-96-7 ATS
• Patriots are 4-10 SU, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
• Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams.
  Since 2019, Patriots are 16-22 SU, 14-22-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, third-worst ATS mark in the NFL just ahead of the Bears and Cardinals.
  Since 2019, they are 19-6 SU, 16-9 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-6 ATS since 2020.
  In that same span, they are 10-20-1 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs previous season, third-worst mark in the NFL (SEA, CHI). When they face a team who didn’t make the playoffs, they are 24-19-1 ATS in that span.
  Mac is 12-9 SU vs. teams who failed to make the playoffs the previous season and 6-12 SU vs. teams who did.
• Patriots since 2020 without Tom Brady
  6-1 ATS vs. Jets
  4-11 ATS vs. Bills/Dolphins

Mac Jones:

• Mac Jones is 0-5 ATS vs. Dolphins. He’s 16-17-1 ATS vs. all other teams.
  Mac is failing to cover the spread by 7 PPG vs. MIA
  QBs 0-5 ATS or worse vs. MIA last 20 years: Mac & Sam Darnold, both 0-5 ATS
• 1-14 SU when opponents scores more than 24 points. Mac is 17-7 SU when his defense allows 24 points or less. When Mac scores 21 points or less, NE is 4-15 SU.
• Jones is 16-22-1 ATS career – least profitable QB last 20 yrs under Belichick
  Mac is 5-0 ATS vs. Jets, Zack Wilson, 11-22-1 ATS vs. all other QBs
  Mac is 12-8-1 ATS as a favorite, 4-14 ATS as an underdog.
  Over the last 20 years, Mac is ranked 269th of 272 QBs as an underdog ATS.
  Mac is 1-11 ATS as dog since start of last season – rest of NFL is 204-166-8 as a dog in that span.
• Mac Jones is 8-10 ATS off a SU win. He’s lost four straight ATS in this spot and is 2-8 ATS in his last 10. Here is how he’s done off a SU win:
  -6-3 ATS as a favorite
  -2-7 ATS as a underdog

Patriots Largest Underdog Games with Mac Jones
+8.5, 2022 at BUF (L, 35-23)
+7.5, 2023 vs. BUF (W, 29-25)
+6.5, 2023 at DAL (L, 38-3)
+6.5, 2021 vs. TB (L, 19-17)
+4.5, 2021 at BUF (L 47-17)

Bill Belichick

• Since Tom Brady left, Belichick & the Pats are 27-31 SU, 26-31-1 ATS since 2020. Belichick as head coach without Brady: 45-49 SU w/ NE, 36-45 SU w/ CLE.
• Since 2021, Belichick is 4-16 SU as an underdog. Between 2003-15 he was 25-22 SU as an underdog. In that same span, Belichick is 16-6 SU as a favorite.
• Since 2020, Belichick is just 12-17 SU in Sept & Oct. Between 2003-19, he was 100-26 SU in those months.

• When two bad defenses play. Go under. When both teams allow 24 PPG or more, the under is 56-33 (63%) last three seasons
  WK 8: MIA/NE, LAC/CHI
• At -9.5, this would be largest Dolphins spread vs. NE since 2001, at -10 it would be their highest since 1992.
• Dolphins and Chiefs are facing off in London next week. Teams the week before playing a neutral site game are 90-52 SU (63.4%) and 80-59-3 ATS (57.6%) since 1990.
• Since 2021, Dolphins are 4-10 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 15-7 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
  The Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the Bills in Week 3 of last season (9/25/22) – Only two teams don't have a SU win over a team with a winning record in this span == Bears: 0-9 SU, Dolphins: 0-6 SU
• Still the offense we know. 7.67 yards per offensive play, second-highest through seven games all-time, ahead of just 2000 Rams (7.9).
  Usually teams with early year high powered offenses come back to reality. Teams who average 6+ YPP in Game 8 or later are 45-60-4 ATS (43%) last 20 years and 11-25-1 ATS since 2019.
• The Dolphins are still averaging 34.3 PPG this season, best in the NFL, entering Week 8.
  First team to average 34 PPG or more in eighth game or later since 2020 Seahawks and 2019 Ravens.
  Those 34+ PPG teams this late in the year are 41-50-2 ATS last 20 years.
• Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 15-5 ATS at home and 9-11-1 ATS away from home in his career.
  Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015
  Miami is 36-20-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
• Tua by time zone: 21-9-1 ATS in EST | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• Tyreek Hill has 902 receiving yards through 7 games – most for any player since 1961.
• When Tua faces an opposing offense average fewer than 21 PPG, he is 11-4 SU, including 10-1 SU in his last 11.

• This will be the 15th time the Jets and Giants play in regular season or playoffs. Jets are 6-8 SU, with ATS split evenly, 7-7 ATS. Jets have won & covered two in a row.
• Jets have struggled on extended rest with Zach Wilson. He’s 0-2 SU/ATS, scoring 16 total points in the two games (both in New England).
  Saleh has coached four games on extended rest, Jets are 0-4 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 17.5 PPG.
  Coaches 0-4 ATS or worse on extended rest last 20 years:
  Bill Callahan: 0-6 ATS, Saleh 0-4 ATS
  Jets have also struggled on short rest FWIW…
  Wilson has played two career games on short rest, Jets are 0-2 SU/ATS. Jets scored 13 total points in those two games.
  Saleh has coached three games on short rest, Jets are 0-3 SU/ATS, losing by 15, 16 and 20 points in the three games.
• Bad history again for Zach? Wilson became the first player since the NFL merger to record the worst passer rating two years in a row last year. In 2023, he currently has the third-worst passer rating in the NFL, ahead of just Daniel Jones and Ryan Tannehill.
• Wilson and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams.
  20 PPG or higher: 5-12 SU
  19.9 PPG or less: 5-4 SU
• With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets start a “backup QB” for the rest of the season. Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 5-27 SU, 13-19 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.
• 38 QBs have had 300+ plays since start of last season, Zach Wilson has the lowest EPA/play, completion percentage and success rate of any QB.
• Jets have been favored in four games with Zach Wilson. They are 2-2 SU/ATS. His highest spread as a favorite is 2.5, done three times.

• QB comparison
  Taylor: 15th EPA/play, comp% second, 11th avg depth per target
  Jones: 33rd EPA/play comp%, eighth, 33rd avg depth per target
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 160-102-5 ATS (61.1%) since 2018 & 23-8-1 ATS this season.
  Week 8 match: CLE, NYG, TEN
• Giants have scored 17 total points in three games at home this year.
  The under in Giants home games is 21-6-1 since 2020 – best in the NFL
• Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots.
  2023 hasn’t been as kind. Giants are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS ATS as an underdog this season.
• Taylor is 20-12-2 ATS as an underdog in his career and overall, he is 32-21-3 ATS in his career. In the last 20 years, Taylor is the 13th-most profitable QB ATS of 278 QBs.
• If the Giants trail at the half, they may be worth a bet. When Tyrod Taylor trails at the half, his teams are 16-8 against the second half spread. Since Taylor entered the league in 2015, he's the sixth-most profitable QB against second half spread when trailing at the half.
• Good 1H spot. Teams this late in the year (eighth game or later), after scoring 14 points or less in previous game, 81-54-3 1H ATS since 2015. Giants and Cardinals this week.

• Falcons are 18-28-1 ATS vs. non-AFC South divisions since 2019, worst mark in the NFL.
• Falcons opened as an underdog and are now the favorites. Those such teams are 42-81 ATS since 2019 and 6-9 ATS this season.
• Arthur Smith returns to place he spent two years as Offensive Coordinator with Titans in 2019-20.
• Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games. They’ve lost four straight games ATS after an ATS win in their last game.
• Desmond Ridder is 4-0 ATS vs. NFC South and 0-7 ATS vs. all other divisions.
• Falcons are 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS after a SU win under Smith.
  His 4-11-1 ATS mark is third-worst of any head coach last three seasons.
• They finally got a cover! But it wasn’t pretty. Falcons have struggled in the first half under Desmond Ridder, going 1-8-2 straight up and 1-10 against the first half spread in his career. They are failing to cover 1H spread by 5.7 PPG.
  1H points under Ridder: 3, 9, 7, 10, 14, 3, 3, 0, 7, 10, 10
  Dating back to college, Ridder is 1-12 1H ATS in his last 13 starts.
• Arthur Smith…
  Sept-Oct: 11-11 ATS
  Nov. on: 6-12-1 ATS
  Smith is 6-4 ATS in first four games of the season – his teams are 11-17-1 ATS in game 5 forward.
• Falcons continue their journey have playing zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
  Played on road before game in London (Wk 3, 4)
  7 of last 11 games on the road
• The Falcons lost at home in Week 6 vs. Commanders breaking Desmond Ridder’s streak of 31 consecutive wins at home in college and pros (31-1 SU, 19-13 ATS).
  On the road, Ridder has been much worse.
  NFL: 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS
  CFB: 15-4 SU, 9-10 ATS (3-2 SU/ATS neutral)
  Total: 16-8 SU, 11-13 ATS

Ridder Home/Road NFL Career

• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 160-102-5 ATS (61.1%) since 2018 & 23-8-1 ATS this season.
  Week 8 match: CLE, NYG, TEN
• Titans might be in a bad spot as a home dog off extended rest. Home dogs off 8 days rest or more are 3-8 ATS this season and 38-55-2 ATS in the last decade.
• Titans have struggled recently under Vrabel on extended rest (eight or more days), losing four of last five games SU.
  This will be Vrabel’s seventh game as a coach off a bye (12 or more days), he is 5-1 SU/ATS.
  Most profitable coaches ATS off bye last 20 years:

1. Mike McCarthy: 13-6-1 ATS, 2. Belichick: 22-17-1 ATS, 3. Vrabel: 5-1 ATS

• Titans have now gone 25 straight games without scoring 30 points. The expansion Bucs of '76 and '77 (generally regarded as the NFL worst team of all-time) went 26 games before scoring over 30 in their initial win near the end of the 1977 season for a frame of reference.
• Vrabel as an underdog: 24-24 SU, 28-19-1 ATS, including 25-13-1 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher.
  Minimum 20 games as an underdog, only Mike Vrabel, Matt LaFleur, Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin are 500 SU or better as an underdog in the last 20 years.
  In six seasons with Titans, Vrabel has never finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog (3-2 ATS this season).
• Vrabel is 36-26 SU in Sept, Oct & Nov. in his career (16-15 SU in Dec. on).

• Kirk Cousins vs. his own division
  With Vikings: 18-10-1 SU, 14-15 ATS
  With Washington: 8-14 SU, 11-11 ATS
• Vikings played the 49ers last week. Teams after playing the 49ers are 4-19 SU, 5-16-2 ATS since the start of last season, including 19-39 SU, 22-34-2 ATS since 2020.
• Cousins is 2-7 ATS in his last nine starts on short rest. He’s 5-8 ATS on short rest with Vikings.
• Tough spot for the Vikings. Won as underdogs last week and are now on road on short rest. Teams off a SU win as a dog, who are then on road on short rest, 28-68 SU (29%) last 20 years. That 29% goes to 36% on all rest situations.
• The Vikings have zero rushing TDs through seven games. They are the first team with zero rush TD through seven games since 2017 Dolphins.
  Teams with 0 rush TD through eight games since 2000: 17 MIA, 13 STL, 09 KC, 05 ARI
• Vikings defense is allowing a completion pct of 74.6% this season, third-highest through seven games in Super Bowl era (worst is 2023 DEN).
• Cousins is 29-42-2 ATS coming off a SU win in his career. Over the last 20 years, Cousins is the second-least profitable QB ATS in that, tied currently with Jay Cutler.
  In his NFL career, Kirk Cousins is 39-25 ATS after a SU loss, the fifth-most profitable QB in that spot over the last 20 years.
• The Vikings are 6-1 to the under this season. Tied for best under team in the NFL.
  In 18 games last season, Cousins had six unders in total.
  Cousins entered this year 82-58-1 to the over in his career.
• How Cousins performs based on time of day:
  1p ET or earlier: 50-39-2 ATS
  2p ET or later: 22-35 ATS – third-worst mark last 20 years ahead of Favre and Cutler.
• Most profitable QB SU as a favorite since 2018:

1. Mahomes: 74-17 SU, 2. Hurts: 27-6 SU, 3. Kirk: 40-15-1 SU

• Kirk is just 12-18-1 SU in “toss up” games with the Vikings – spread of 3 points or less either way – making him the least profitable QB on the moneyline in that spot.
• A bad team themselves, but Cousins has historically struggled with bad teams. He is 12-20-1 ATS vs. teams with a win pct of 33% or less.
  Cousins’ 12-20-1 ATS mark is the second-worst of 226 QBs over the last 20 years. The worst is Derek Carr.

• Offensive problems in Green Bay.
  31st in completion pct., 24th in Yards/Pass Att., 26th in Pass Rtg, 24th in Yards/Rush Att.
• Get out of the thin air. Last five years, teams after playing in Denver are 21-11-2 ATS in their next game – second-most profitable previous road opponent in the NFL. It’s 35-21-2 ATS since 2016, second-best in the NFL.
• LaFleur is 45-32 ATS in his career as Packers coach. Since his first season with GB in 2019, he’s the third-most profitable coach ATS in the NFL – best? Dan Campbell at 28-12 ATS and Kyle Shanahan at 47-33-1 ATS.
  Rodgers or not, LaFleur has done well at home, at 24-14 ATS, .500 ATS or better all five seasons in Green Bay.
• The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under LaFleur last season. Week 8 would be their first game as a favorite this year if they close as such.
  Between 2019-21, Packers were 33-9 SU as a favorite under LaFleur.
  Packers haven’t been underdogs in their first six games since 1980 prior to this season (GB were underdogs in their first seven games).
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 16-8 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Rodgers and 4-3 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 29-24 ATS.
• Jordan Love has been on a good ATS run.
  Started 4-0 ATS, 0-3 ATS since.
  Love has never closed as a favorite in his seven career starts.
• Love doesn’t play as good vs. good sack teams. Vikings have 3.6% pct plays end in a sack.
  More than 2%: 1-3 ATS (1 ATS W was NO game. Trailed 17-0)
  Less than 2%: 2-0 ATS

• Teams going from EST to PST to play on the road have performed well recently – going 67-49-5 ATS (58%) since 2016.
  Week 8 match: CIN, CLE
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 160-102-5 ATS (61.1%) since 2018 & 23-8-1 ATS this season.
  Week 8 match: CLE, NYG, TEN
• PJ Walker's teams have never lost a home game that he's started in the NFL or XFL. He’s 4-0 SU at home and 1-3 SU on the road in the NFL and he was 3-0 SU at home in the XFL with the Houston Roughnecks. He won his last six home starts at Temple in 2016. Last loss? Against Army on Sept 2, 2016.
• Stefanski with Browns
  Favorite: 21-10 SU, 11-20 ATS
  Dog: 9-17 SU, 14-11-1 ATS
• Browns are 10-18 SU, 10-18 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski, including 5-12 ATS on the road after a SU win.
  Since 2021, he’s 4-13 ATS in this spot, least profitable coach in the NFL.
  Browns are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games after a SU win.
• Browns are 10-11 SU, 6-15 ATS vs. AFC North under Kevin Stefanski.
  Of 145 head coaches last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the least profitable coach.
  Stefanski is 19-16-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.

• Turnovers are contagious early in the season. Teams after losing the turnover battle by three or more in their previous game in Sept. or October are 182-213-11 ATS (46%) last 20 years in their next game. This season they are 8-11-2 ATS.
  Week 8: SEA, LV
• Geno Smith is 20-15-2 ATS as a dog, but only 10-11 ATS as a favorite.
• Geno has performed well off a loss. He’s 20-13 ATS. After a SU win, he’s only 8-11-2 ATS.
• Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get going…
  Carroll in Weeks 1 & 2: 11-16-1 ATS
  Carroll in Week 3 on: 110-90-7 ATS
• The divisional battles might take it out of Seattle. They are 6-12 ATS after facing an NFC West opponent under Carroll, making him third-least profitable coach ATS in that spot
• Teams on the second leg or later of a road trip when facing Seattle are 12-37 SU, 19-29-1 ATS – CLE Week 8, WAS Week 10, PHI Week 15
• Few teams do a homestand like Seattle. They are 36-13 SU at home after playing at home in their previous game last 20 years. 8-2 SU since 2018. 26-6 SU since 2010.

• Dolphins and Chiefs are facing off in London in Week 9. Teams the week before playing a neutral site game are 90-52 SU (63.4%) and 80-59-3 ATS (57.6%) since 1990.
• Mahomes has had 18 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last season, seventh-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  Favorite: 91 (46-44-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  Home: 25-26-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 27-18-1 ATS
  1p ET: 13-16-1 ATS | After 1p slate: 39-28-1 ATS
  -10 or higher: 25 (11-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 76 (43-32-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 26 (19-6-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 75 (35-39-1 ATS)
• Chiefs have won 13 consecutive division games SU, last loss Sept 26. 2021 vs. Chargers, Herbert.
  Longest div win streak in modern era is 16 by 2012-15 IND, 1972-73 MIA and 1950-52 CLE.
  Last streak of 14 to 15 Ws: 1993-94 DAL 14, 1968-70 NYJ 15
• Mahomes vs. AFC West: 29-3 SU, 17-14-1 ATS
  As a favorite of 7 or more vs. AFC West: 19-1 SU, 9-10-1 ATS
  He covers away from home vs. AFC West, going 10-6 ATS
  Mahomes is 16-0 SU on road/neutral vs. AFC West
• Mahomes in his career is 20-0 SU on the road/neutral as a favorite of over 5 points.
  As a road/neutral favorite of over a field goal he is 25-5 SU.
• Patrick Mahomes is 12-0 SU, 7-5 ATS vs. Broncos in his career.
  Patrick Mahomes (12-0 vs Broncos) and Andrew Luck (11-0 vs Titans) are the only players in the Super Bowl era with more than 10 QB wins and no losses against a single opponent.
• Tough to do it again. Chiefs covered vs. their own division last week When those teams are favored vs. division in their next game, 46.3% ATS last 20 years.
• Chiefs have won the AFC West seven consecutive years – longest active division streak across four major sports – The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019. Chiefs are currently -1700 to win the AFC West again.

Longest NFL Division Title Streak NFL History
11 – 2009-19 NE
7 – 2016-23 KC
7 – 1973-79 STL

Patrick Mahomes SU regular season losses with the Chiefs – 17
Russell Wilson total SU losses with the Broncos – 16
Russ is 1-7 SU vs. AFC West w/ Broncos. Mahomes is 29-3 SU w/ Chiefs.
+ Broncos defense is allowing a completion pct of 75.3% this season, highest through seven games in Super Bowl era (third-worst is 2023 MIN).
+ The Chiefs have beaten the Broncos in 16 consecutive games (11-5 ATS). A $100 bettor would be up $900 betting all 16 games.
Longest active win streak one opp. another: KC 16 vs. DEN, NE 15 vs. NYJ
Chiefs 16-game win streak vs. DEN is tied for the third-longest streak over one opponent all-time.
1970-79 MIA > BUF
1990-98 SF > LAR
2015-23 KC > DEN
1968-97 WAS > DET
= The last time Denver beat KC was Sept. 17, 2015 at Arrowhead. QB Patrick Mahomes was celebrating his 20th birthday after having just started his sophomore season at Texas Tech. Peyton Manning is still the last Denver quarterback to take down Kansas City.
+ Broncos home games have been an under-fest. They are 13-8 last three years and 44-27-1 since 2015 – all eight years .500 or better to the under at home. This season though, they are 2-2 to the under at home with Denver’s horrific defense.
+ Here is where the Broncos defense lies through six games…
Opp. completion pct: 75.3% = highest through seven games in Super Bowl era.
Allowing 5.5 yards per rush – seventh-most in SB era
Allowing 6.53 yards per play – eighth-most in SB era
+ When either team is allowing 30 PPG or more, the under is 101-79-4 in the last 20 years.
+ Wilson is 12-24 SU over the last three seasons, he was 107-52-1 SU in his first 9 seasons in the NFL.
Wilson is 3-12 SU in his last 15 starts and 4-15 SU in his last 19 starts for the Broncos.
+ Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos
DEN: 6-16 SU, 7-14-1 ATS
SU mark is worst in NFL, ATS is fourth-worst
SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS
+ Wilson’s 6-16 SU mark has lost bettors $1,192 with Broncos, making him the least profitable QB on ML for Broncos last 20 years.

• Joe Burrow is good vs. good defenses and good sack teams.
  Sixth game or later, vs. 3%+ defensive sack rate: 17-7 ATS (SF is 3.4%)
• Teams going from EST to PST to play on the road have performed well recently – going 67-49-5 ATS (58%) since 2016.
  Week 8 match: CIN, CLE
• Joe Burrow prefers the road to home when it comes to covering the number.
  Road/Neutral: 20-10 ATS
  Home: 14-10-1 ATS
• Bengals loss in the playoffs last year broke a nine-game ATS win streak as underdogs for Bengals.
  This will be the Bengals first game of the season as an underdog.
• Burrow as an underdog in his career
  10-13-1 SU, 16-8 ATS – 21-3 (88%) in a 6-point teaser as an underdog
  Since the start of 2021, Burrow is 15-0 in a 6-point teaser when listed as an underdog and Bengals are 16-0 in 6-pt teaser as an underdog.
  As an underdog of 3 or more points, Burrow is 14-2 ATS in the NFL and was 5-1 ATS in college (19-3 ATS overall)
  At LSU, Burrow was 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as an underdog (5-1 in pt teaser)
• Burrow is 17-9 SU, 18-8 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. In the last 20 years, he’s the eighth-most profitable QB ATS vs. teams above .500 SU of 256 QBs.
  Burrow is 16-4 SU in his last 20 games vs. above .500 SU opponents
  Burrow at LSU was 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS vs. above .500 SU opponents
  NFL and LSU combined: 32-12 SU, 31-13 ATS vs. above .500 SU opponents
• In Joe Burrow’s career, he is 36-18-1 (67%) against the second half spread in his career.
  Best 2H ATS mark in the NFL since he was drafted.
• This will be Burrow’s 12th game on extended rest. He’s just 5-5-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS.
  Including 1-4-1 SU, 4-2 ATS as an underdog on plus rest.
• This will be Burrow’s fourt career NFL start in MST or PST time zone. He’s 3-0 SU.ATS out west. Never made a MST/PST start at LSU.
• Burrow is 2-of-16 passing on attempts 20+ yards downfield this season. Thirty-six QBs have had at least five pass attempts of 20+ yards this season, Burrow’s 12.5% completion percentage on throws 20+ yards downfield is the lowest in the NFL.
  Burrow has the same number of 20+ yard completions as Daniel Jones with seven more attempts.
• Burrow is 9-9 ATS vs. AFC North and 25-11-1 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents
• Burrow is 18-4 SU and 18-3-1 ATS in his last 22 games vs. non-divisional opponents

• Good teams tend to bounce back. Teams with a higher win pct, cover after losses.
  60%+ win pct, after loss: 433-398-23 ATS (52.1%)
  66%+ win pct, after loss: 289-254-14 ATS (53.2%)
• Teams with 66%+ win percentage, off two or more losses, 36-25-3 ATS (59%) last 20 years.
  Off two straight losses or more, Shanahan is just 12-12 ATS and 5-4 ATS since 2020.
• 49ers are on short rest this week, now off two straight losses.
  Kyle Shanahan has performed well on short rest, going 13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS
  49ers have won and covered six in a row on short rest.
• Teams off two consecutive SU losses, playing on short rest are 135-182 SU (42.6%) last 20 years.
• 49ers have covered the spread in 10 consecutive home games dating back to last season, the longest home cover streak in the NFL (the 49ers longest home cover streak since 1960).
  An 11th straight win would be a home streak record in last 20 years, wins or losses by any team.
  Home ATS Streaks – Last 20 Years
  SF 22-23 10 straight ATS wins
  PHI 12-13 10 straight ATS losses
• First the Browns, now the Vikings. The 49ers have suffered back-to-back regular season losses. Dating back to last season, 49ers are 7-2 SU/ATS in their last nine games off a loss.
  When Shanahan is a favorite off a loss, he’s only 9-8 SU.
• Darnold is 22-32-1 ATS in his NFL career – Last 20 years, he is 1 of 10 QBs at least 10 games under .500 ATS (Cutler, Stafford, Palmer, Bulger, Culpepper, KCollins, Baker, Colt, Darnold, Fields) He was 4-2 ATS in 2022, 1st season above .500 ATS (below 2018-21)
• Darnold is 9-19 ATS on the road and 13-13-1 ATS at home in his career. Darnold has been a favorite 13 times in his career and he’s 4-9 ATS.
• 49ers had scored 30+ points in eight straight regular season games entering Week 7, the longest such streak for an NFC team since the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams in 1999-2000 (14). Then they scored 17 in Cleveland and Minnesota.
  Kyle Shanahan is 7-1 ATS after scoring 17 or less in back-to-back games.
• In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 17-3 SU, 14-6 ATS.
  McCaffrey has a TD in 16 consecutive games, a 49er record. McCaffrey passes John Riggins & O.J. Simpson for the second-longest touchdown streak in NFL history. Longest? Lenny Moore (17 games).
  McCaffrey odds to score TD this season: -105, -160, -240, -250, -195, -165, -180

• Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and three games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh is 151-108-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $3,539, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
  With Lamar Jackson & Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 139-101-9 1H ATS.
• Over the past three seasons, Lamar Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 9-16 ATS as a favorite, including 3-13 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.
• Jackson is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog. In all other spots he is 19-28 ATS career.
• Lamar has faced the NFC in 17 games, he is 16-1 SU, 8-9 ATS. His one loss came vs. Giants last season.
  His .941 win pct is best by any QB against the opposing conference since the 1970 merger.
  Jackson vs. NFC: 16-1 SU, 8-9 ATS. He’s 33-18 SU, 28-23 ATS vs. AFC
• Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral, he’s 25-10-1 1H ATS and 18-17-1 1H ATS at home.
  Between 2021-23, he’s 15-15-1 1H ATS. From 2018-20, he was 28-12-1 1H ATS.
• Lamar as 7 point favorite or higher: 24-5 SU. He’s 16-3 SU at home, 8-2 SU on road.
• When Lamar faces team under .500 SU, he’s 26-4 SU, 15-15 ATS.

• The Ravens are on a roll. There are a number of systems that would tell you to bet Arizona: In Week 5 or later, fade team covering by high margin facing bad team. That system is 61% ATS over the last 20 years and active on the Panthers and Cardinals.
• Good 1H spot. Teams this late in the year (eighth game or later), after scoring 14 points or less in previous game, 81-54-3 1H ATS since 2015. Giants and Cardinals this week.
• Josh Dobbs, Cardinals led offense has fallen off a cliff after a good start.
  first three games: 11th offensive EPA/play, 15th off. success rate, Dobbs 17th EPA/play & sixth in completion pct (11th expected comp. pct)
  Last four games: 29th offensive EPA/play, 30th off. success rate, Dobbs 22nd of 23 in EPA/play & 23rd of 24 in completion pct
• Will Arizona get rolled? Teams who won six games or less prior year + on four-game SU losing streak, 54-81 ATS as home dog.
• Arizona’s biggest issue? They can’t get pressure on defense. Their pressure pct of 15.1% is the lowest in the NFL.
  ARI is 29th in EPA/play on defense and 32nd, last in NFL in opponent success rate – the only team above 50% in opp. success rate
• Good reaction by Cardinals after facing Seahawks/49ers lately. 10-7-2 ATS since 2018.
• Josh Dobbs continues to start as a backup QB for the Cardinals with Kyler Murray out.
  Arizona is 15-22 SU, 20-16-1 ATS with a backup QB over the last decade – but they are 1-11 SU and 5-7 ATS in their last 12 in this spot.
  Recent Arizona backups: Dobbs, David Blough, Trace McSorley, Colt McCoy
• Cardinals haven’t been a public side yet this season. Arizona and Carolina are the two teams this season without a game as the public side.

Week 1: ARI +7 at WAS, 22% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 2: ARI +4.5 vs. NYG, 18% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 3: ARI +12.5 vs. DAL, 18% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 4: ARI +15 at SF, 36% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
Week 5: ARI +3 vs. CIN, 42% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
Week 6: ARI: +7 at LAR, 38% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
Week 7: ARI +9 at SEA, 37% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)

• When two bad defenses play. Go under. When both teams allow 24 PPG or more, the under is 56-33 (63%) last three seasons
  WK 8: MIA/NE, LAC/CHI
• This is the Bears ninth night game since 2021 – so it isn’t the first time.
  In the Bears 17 night games since 2019, they are 6-11 ATS, third-worst in NFL – Bucs, Patriots, Bears.
  Bears are 2-9 SU in last 11 night games, but won two straight, both on road.
• Since start of last season, Bears are 5-19 SU .. 2-2 SU at night, 3-17 SU not at night.
• Over the last 20 years, Bears are 65-82-4 ATS (44.2%) after a SU win. Under Matt Eberflus, Bears are 0-4 SU/ATS after a win, failing to cover the spread by 6.3 PPG.
  Bears are 29-46-1 ATS as a dog after a SU win last 20 years
• With the Bears going to a backup again Sunday in Tyson Bagent, this will be the 36th game Chicago will start a backup QB over the last decade. Bears are 10-25 SU, 14-21 ATS in those games, including 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in the spot dating back to 2021.
• Bears are 19-28-1 ATS vs. non-NFC North divisions since 2019, third-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Falcons, Raiders.
• Bears are 6-1 to the over this year and 16-8 to the over since start of last season, best mark in the NFL.
• Who is the most profitable teams ATS to bet against last few seasons?
  Last 3 years: 27-13-1 ATS (best)
  Last 4 years: 36-21-1 ATS (best)
  Last 5 years: 48-24-2 ATS (best)

• Favorites of 7 points or more are 251-61 SU (80.4%) in night games. At home, it goes to 82% SU.
  Since 2020, these big favorites are 40-5 SU at home.
• 14 teams had win total of 9.5+, only one has 2 wins or less – Chargers.
• The Chargers have played 24 games since the start of last season, and 18 of them have finished within seven points.
  19 of the Chargers last 25 games have been decided by 7 points or less dating back to the Week 18, 2021 Raiders loss. Chargers last 9 losses were by: 14, 3, 3, 2, 1, 3, 7, 3, 6
• Some relief? Teams are 26-13 SU the week after facing the Chiefs over the last three seasons.
• Herbert has been a favorite of 7 or more six times. He’s 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS. His one loss against the Texans in 2021.
  Biggest Favorites of his Career
  -13 at HOU, 2021 (L, 41-29)
  -10 vs. NYJ, 2020 (W, 34-28)
  -9 vs. NYG, 2021 (W, 37-21)
• In night games overall, Herbert is 6-8 SU, 8-6 ATS
  4-3 SU at home, 2-5 SU on road in night games
• Herbert’s W/L record has been a product of his defense in his career.
  When his defense allows 27 points or more, LAC is 6-24 SU, 9-21 ATS.
  When his defense allows fewer than 27 points, LAC is 21-5 SU, 20-5-1 ATS
• Herbert is 15-12 ATS on the road, and only 13-14-1 ATS at home in his career.
  Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons.
  Chargers have finished above .500 ATS once at home in the last ten years.
• Herbert by time zone:
  EST/CST: 13-7 ATS
  MST/PST: 16-19-1 ATS
• Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite
  Underdog: 13-8 ATS, 18-3 in 6-pt teasers
  Favorite: 16-18-1 ATS, 25-8 in 6-pt teasers
• Herbert is 11-3 1H ATS in night games – with a 1H ATS cover Sunday he would have the second-best mark since 2005 behind just Peyton Manning.
• Herbert is 32-24 1H ATS, he’s 15-9 1H ATS since start of last season – fourth-best mark in the NFL.
• Herbert is 16-35-5 against the second half spread in his career.
  Since 2005, he’s 247th of 250 QBs in 2H ATS profitability
  Can’t hold a lead: he’s 7-24-2 2H ATS when leading at HT (-$1,755, worst in NFL since he was drafted)
  When Herbert’s had the lead at half in a night game, he’s 1-9-1 2H ATS.
  In night games, Herbert is 3-10-1 2H ATS

Herbert 2H ATS Career
2023: 1-4-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS

• Turnovers are contagious early in the year. Teams after losing the turnover battle by 3 or more in their previous game in Sept. or October are 182-213-11 ATS (46%) last 20 years in their next game. This season they are 8-11-2 ATS.
  Week 8: SEA, LV
• Garoppolo in night games is 14-8 SU, 12-10 ATS
  He’s 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as an underdog in those night starts, including 3-0 SU/ATS as an underdog at night during the regular season
• In the last 20 years, we’ve had 272 QBs listed as an underdog at least once.
  Most Games Above .500 SU as Dog – Last 20 Years
  Jimmy G: 8 (16-8)
  Big Ben: 4 (38-34)
  Tom Brady: 4 (25-21)
  Patrick Mahomes: 4 (7-3)
  Most profitable QB ATS as dog last 20 years
  Teddy, Brees, Big Ben, Russ, Rivers, Brady, Jimmy G
• Garoppolo is 16-8 straight up and 18-6 against the spread as an underdog in his NFL career. As a favorite, he is 31-12 SU, 22-20-1 ATS.
  Garoppolo is 266th of 272 QBs as a dog ATS last 20 years
• Garoppolo is 7-10 ATS in September and 33-17-1 ATS in all other months
• Garoppolo is 5-1 SU/ATS on Monday Night Football in his career.
• If Brian Hoyer gets the start at QB for the Raiders, things aren’t looking so great. He is 16-26 SU as a starter and has lost 13 consecutive starts SU.
• Josh McDaniels started his career 6-0 SU/ATS in Denver. Since that run, McDaniels coached teams are 14-32 SU and 18-28 ATS.
• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas
  Raiders at home in Vegas: 13-15 SU, 15-13 ATS
  On road/neutral: 14-16 SU, 12-18 ATS
• Josh McDaniels coached teams fade late
  13-15 SU in Sept-Oct
  7-17 SU in Nov or later
• Raiders might have to go to a backup QB this week again with Jimmy Garoppolo hurt. This will be only the 12th time the Raiders have to go to a backup QB over the last decade and the first time they have to do it more than once in a season since 2017.
  Raiders backups have struggled, going 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in those games.
• Hoyer in his career is 16-26 SU, 22-18-2 ATS. Since 2018, Hoyer has started four games. His teams are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, scoring 24, 12, 10 and 12 points in each game.
  Hoyer is 8-5 SU as a favorite and 8-21 SU as an underdog.
  He’s struggled on the road, going 6-16 SU in his career
• McDaniels has coached nine games at night, he’s 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS
  Raiders have struggled to score in night games w/ McDaniels: 17, 18, 10, 16, 29
• Raiders haven’t won a road game at night since 2017. Six straight losses SU.
• Josh McDaniels doesn’t have his big upset yet. 0-8 SU as 7pt dog or higher, he’s 1-11 SU as dog of 6 or higher.

Biggest Underdog Josh McDaniels
+10, vs SF 2022, L 37-34
+9, at KC 2010, L 10-6
+9, at LAC 2010, L 35-14

• This is the Lions first home night game since Sept. 23, 2018 vs. Patriots. Last on MNF week before, 9/10/18 vs. NYJ.
  Last time Lions fans got to see this good a team at home in a night game: 2011 against Bears, won/covered 24-13 – DET was undefeated.
• Goff is 17-6-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, second-best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• Lions are 28-13 ATS (68%) since the start of the 2021 season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,253); second-best is Dallas.
  Lions are halfway to 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (5-2 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
  Lions are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
• Lions are facing the Raiders back indoors this week. Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
  Indoor: 28-14 ATS (18-6 ATS last 2 seasons)
  Outdoor: 34-34-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-14-1 ATS in Dec/Jan)
• Goff is 19-8 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL.
  Goff on the road since 2020: 15-12 ATS
  Highest Lions Spreads for Jared Goff as Starter
  -9.5: 2023 vs. CAR (W, 42-24)
  -4.5: 2023 vs. SEA (L, 37-31)
  -4.5: 2022 vs. CHI (W, 41-10)
• Goff has performed well at night, going 15-10 SU, 14-10-1 ATS.
  Including 3-1 SU/ATS with Lions.
• Goff has played three games at night where he’s a 7pt favorite or higher, all ended in one-score games.
• Goff is 13-8 ATS off a SU loss with the Lions, including 10-4 ATS when that game is played at home.
  When Goff’s teams are above .500 SU & coming off a loss, he’s 11-6-1 ATS

System: This has finished above .500 ATS in nine straight years. Bet road dogs in low total games.

Matches: LAR

System: Bet teams off big losses.

Matches: CAR, DET

System: A PRO Bet Labs System, focuses on betting against the public this week after that team had a bad game.

Matches: WAS

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• Biggest names at the top of the ATD board: Desmond Ridder, Jared Goff, Adam Thielen and Jordan Addison.

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• On the first team TD data, Jakobi Meyers, Rashid Shaheed and also Addison are at the top.

League Trends ⤵️

Let's talk QB interceptions. QB INT "Yes" Props also just winning overall, regardless of plus-money.

• NFL QB INT Record if you had bet "Yes" for each starting QB in every game of 2023: 117-92-1, 55.7%.
• Was hitting at 51.9% overall to "Yes" prior to Week 6. Gone 36-20 to "Yes" in just the L2 weeks.

Top-5 Most Profitable NFL Quarterback INT Props – 2023

1) Jalen Hurts +5.3U
2) Daniel Jones +3.6U
3) Jimmy Garoppolo +3.5U
3) Patrick Mahomes +3.5U
5) Justin Fields +3.4U

Plus-Money QB INTs:
Week 7: 5-2 +5.1U
2023: 53-39 +25.9U
2022: 81-75 +24U

• Games with 10+ MPH winds are 14-3-1 to the under this year, going under the total by 6.7 PPG.
• Games with 10+ MPH winds are 106-53-1 to the under in last 3 seasons (66.7%) and 187-124-1 (60.1%) since 2018. Over the last 20 years, these unders hit at a 57.1% rate.
• Best windy under home teams: NYG, MIA, BAL, CLE, PHI, NE, WAS
• Week 8 matches: NE/MIA, MIN/GB

Looking for an edge in a category? Here are the remaining undefeated teams by quarter, half & more.

Undefeated Teams Left:
ATS: CAR 0-5-1
1H ATS: NYJ 0-6 1H ATS
1H ML: KC 6-0-1, ATL 0-5-2, NYJ 0-6
2H ATS: GB 6-0
2H Under: KC 7-0
1Q ATS: BAL 7-0, NYJ 0-6
1Q Under: MIN 6-0-1
1Q ML: BAL 7-0, NYJ 0-6
2Q ATS: ARI 7-0
2Q Over: MIA 7-0
3Q ATS: DEN 0-7
4Q Under: KC 7-0
Score First: BAL 7-0
Raiders 7-0 team total under

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	Second In Odds	Third In Odds
NFL MVP	Patrick Mahomes (+250)	Tua Tagovailoa (+450)	Jalen Hurts (+450)
Offensive POY	Christian McCaffrey (+150)	Tyreek Hill (+150)	Ja'Marr Chase (+2500)
Defensive POY	Myles Garrett (+200)	Micah Parsons (+225)	T.J. Watt (+225)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (-190)	Puka Nacua (+300)	Jordan Addison (+900)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-175)	Devon Witherspoon (+225)	Will Anderson (+1000)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-190)	Tua Tagovailoa (+250)	Lamar Jackson (+1400)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+300)	Mike McDaniel (+325)	DeMeco Ryans (+750)
Updated as of October 25

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• Jordan Addison has entered the OROY conversation.
• CMC vs. Tyreek Hill for OPOY.

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: Entering Week 8, only one team in the NFL is perfect in a 6-point teaser spot this season, going 7-0 so far. This team has covered all 7 of their games in a 6-pt teaser.

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