With the 2025 NFL season about to kick off, I wanted to share my quick general thoughts on each AFC division while providing all of the NFL win total projections and positions I took this summer.
If you are looking for my NFC positions, you can find all 12 bets in the free Action Network app.
NFL Win Total Projections for the AFC
AFC East
Win Total Projections
- Bills 12.3
- Patriots 8.0
- Dolphins 7.2
- Jets 6.5
Bet I Made
- Dolphins Under 7.5 +120
Thoughts
The Bills are one of the three best teams in the league and have an extremely favorable schedule that includes all of their toughest games in Orchard Park, where they've lost just twice over the past three regular seasons. That could ultimately lead them to the highly-coveted No. 1 seed in the AFC.
It's hard to envision them falling back too much after averaging 12.2 wins over the past five seasons (none fewer than 11), even with some potentially nasty turnover regression after leading the league with an eye-popping +24 differential.
It's all about finally breaking through to the Super Bowl and that will likely come down to how this secondary comes together.
New England should put out a much more competent product on the field under new head coach Mike Vrabel.
The Patriots had so many holes to address on their roster after fielding a bottom-of-the-barrel offense and defense in 2024. To their credit, they did go out and bring in plenty of talent on both sides of the ball.
The offensive line has a chance and the skill positions, while certainly not elite, are in better shape. If Drake Maye can take another step, this could be one of the most improved offenses in the league, but it's certainly not a guarantee.
There's still uncertainty surrounding the ceiling of Stefon Diggs at this point in his career. And while the offensive line has improved on paper, the Patriots are still counting on a pair of rookies on Maye's blindside.
The defense also got stronger up front, which should help against the run (Vrabel's specialty) and lead to more pressure after a season where the Patriots finished dead last in sacks.
Combine that with one of the top cornerback trios in the league and you can see the reasons for optimism, especially if the surprising safety shake up doesn't end in disaster.
It also doesn't hurt to have one of the easiest schedules in the league with some potential looming positive regression.
Last year, the Pats went 3-6 in one score games against a gauntlet of opposing quarterbacks with a -11 turnover margin (recovered only 2 of 17 fumbles on defense) and poor injury luck.
Everything is pointing toward a major bounce-back for the Patriots.
I'm selling everything about the Dolphins, who really just need to blow everything up.
The floor is extremely low, especially when you consider Tua Tagovailoa's concussion risk. The offensive line is a calamity and the cornerback room might be the worst in the league.
Meanwhile, this offense continues to trend downward under head coach Mike McDaniel, who has not been able to counter with any solutions to the adjustments opposing defenses have made.
Plus, Tyreek Hill isn't the same caliber player he once was (and who knows if he's even there all year), which makes things even more difficult from a spacing perspective.
I like the potential of the front seven on defense, but am not a fan of anything else this organization has done recently.
I don't have much to say on the Jets.
The defense could bounce back this season after the secondary significantly underperformed, but I didn't love their additions on the back end.
The offense still lacks firepower, and we pretty much know who Justin Fields is at this point.
New head coach Aaron Glenn could provide a culture bump, and the offensive line has potential if the young tackles live up to the hype, which could help with a complementary run game to a potentially stout defense.
But, how many low-scoring affairs can this roster realistically win? Maybe seven or eight if things break right.
However, it's hard to envision a much higher ceiling with a quarterback who has a career 0-21 record when opponents clear the 20-point mark.
AFC West
Win Total Projections
- Chiefs: 10.9
- Broncos: 9.1
- Chargers: 8.5
- Raiders: 7.0
Bets I Made
- Chargers Under 9.5 -105
- Broncos Under 9.5 -115
Thoughts
I have higher hopes for the Chiefs offense, especially once they get Rashee Rice back from suspension.
If the very inexperienced left side of the offensive line comes together and helps lower the pressure rate, we may finally see some of the old explosiveness back in Kansas City, which dropped from eighth in the league to 28th in yards per catch from 2022 to 2024.
The defense has carried this team for long stretches in recent seasons and banking on Steve Spagnuolo is usually a good bet, even if there are some questions in the secondary.
I doubt the Chiefs repeat a 15-win season after going 11-0 in one-possession games. While that's extreme, it's basically what Kansas City does under Andy Reid.
In the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs have gone 47-20 in one-possession contests. Get used to it.
They'll obviously be in the mix once again as they seek to keep their amazing seven-year AFC Championship appearance streak alive. It doesn't hurt to have only seven true road games.
I sold the Broncos earlier this summer, but I don't love that position as much as I once did.
Denver had an amazing 2024 season under rookie quarterback Bo Nix thanks in large part to head coach Sean Payton, a stout offensive line and a suffocating defense.
However, keep in mind Denver only beat one playoff team all season (Tampa Bay) excluding Week 18 when the Chiefs rested all of their starters, allowing the Broncos to get to 10 wins.
It's also no guarantee Denver's defense will once again be as elite (or healthy) even after adding in talent this offseason. Yes, I have the Broncos ranked as one of the league's best, but think about last season when many assumed the Browns and Jets would have two of the best in the NFL.
The perception of both has changed drastically in just one season.
Denver finished with one of the 25 best defenses from an EPA perspective since 2014. Only one of the previous 24 improved the next season and the average rankings drop came in around eight spots.
It's not easy to see, but defenses are fickle. I'm also still not a true believer in Nix as someone who can win games on his own when needed, which he may need to do more of in 2025 if the defense or special teams slip even a little bit.
One of the reasons I don't love my Broncos under position as much is I've soured on the Chargers, who were dealt a massive blow along the offensive line with Rashawn Slater going down with an injury. That will cause Joe Alt to move over to left tackle and leave a massive void at right tackle.
The skill-position talent is still lacking, as is the defense (which lost some real production up front that wasn't replaced unless some rookies hit) even if it is well schemed under Jesse Minter.
Los Angeles will also have to deal with an extremely difficult home schedule — where it doesn't have much of a home-field advantage — and lose a home divisional game to Brazil.
The AFC West may be tougher overall if the Raiders can field a more serious team in 2025, which they should at least be from an offensive perspective after adding Ashton Jeanty and Geno Smith (who thrives indoors). This might actually lead to a semblance of a running game and hope at quarterback.
The defense still has major holes pretty much across the board outside of Maxx Crosby — specifically in the secondary, which looks pitiful on paper.
While I like defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, there's only so much he can do with the cards he's been dealt once again this season. His best hope will likely be trying to prevent explosive plays and hoping for sacks and turnovers (unlucky last year in that department) to kill drives and hand the ball back to a much improved offense that should be able to hang.
Even with bounces going their way, the defense still keeps the ceiling pretty mild for Vegas.
AFC South
Win Total Projections
- Texans: 9.2
- Jaguars 8.0
- Colts 7.5
- Titans 7.0
Bets I Made
- Jaguars to win Division +310
- Jaguars Over 7.5 Wins -110
- Jaguars to Make Playoffs +176
- Titans Over 5.5 -120
Thoughts
I trust the Houston defense, which is the specialty of head coach DeMeco Ryans.
While performance on that side of the ball is certainly much less predictable on a year-to-year basis, it's hard to envision this defense taking a major step back with an elite pass rush and one of the top secondaries in the league.
That's a pretty lethal combination.
C.J. Stroud should bounce back after a disappointing sophomore season, but most of the issues in 2024 stemmed from poor offensive line play, wide receiver injuries and horrendous playcalling. They upgraded at offensive coordinator after shedding Bobby Slowik, but I'm not sure they fixed the offensive line in any material way.
In fact, it could have somehow gotten worse, which could hold this team back again.
Plus, the Texans likely won't have as easy of a path to a division title this season with the Jaguars, Texans and Colts all addressing key weaknesses in the offseason after disastrous seasons.
The Texans are the rightful favorites in the AFC South, but I bought stock in the Jaguars in large part due to the offseason coaching overhaul.
Everywhere Liam Coen goes, the offense improves drastically. I expect Trevor Lawrence to benefit from the Coen effect after dealing with an offense that was allergic to innovation, motion and play-action in 2024.
The defense still leaves a lot to be desired from a personnel standpoint after finishing as one of the worst in the NFL despite one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses. Regardless, this group should improve schematically after last year's man-heavy scheme was doomed from the start.
I also wouldn't be surprised if they benefited from some turnover luck after only taking the ball away nine times in 2024. That shockingly low number obviously came in as the lowest in the league.
I am curious to see how the cornerback rotation shakes out. Tyson Campbell is the clear No. 1, but you also have a pair of players who are both maybe better suited for the slot in addition to Travis Hunter, who will be fascinating to watch on both sides of the ball. The talent has certainly been upgraded, and the new scheme should better fit their strengths.
If Jacksonville can hang on through the first half of its schedule and maybe pull out some more close games (3-10 one possession in 2024), there will be an opportunity to make a late move with five of its last six games coming against the Titans, Colts and Jets.
Speaking of defense, the Colts should also improve after getting rid of Gus Bradley, who ran the single most outdated and predictable scheme in the league.
Lou Anarumo comes in from Cincinnati and should make the Colts defense a much tougher prep for opposing offenses. Plus, much-maligned general manager Chris Ballard finally brought in some free agency help for a secondary that desperately needed assistance.
The problem comes on the other side of the ball where Daniel Jones will lead the offense. He might be a better option than the wildly inaccurate Anthony Richardson, but it's hard to envision that high of a ceiling even if the new offensive line pieces hit and a talented group of skill positions (which added Tyler Warren) stays healthy.
Lastly, I played the Titans' win total over. There's just no possible way things can go as poorly as they did last season (famous last words).
The quarterback play should improve dramatically under Cam Ward even with rookie uncertainty. Just don't literally pitch the ball to the other team and you're ahead of last year's disaster class.
To be fair, not all of the blame could be put on Will Levis, who had to work behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
That group should be much better this year after the addition of guard Will Zeitler and Dan Moore (who allows JC Latham to transition to right tackle, where he's a much better fit) under the tutelage of a highly regarded OL coach.
The defense wasn't bad last year, but got no help from the offense. If L'Jarius Sneed can get back to his old self as a lockdown corner, this has the potential to be a league-average defense.
Lastly, the special teams were a catastrophe last season. They overhauled that entire group and it shouldn't cost them multiple games again.
AFC North
Win Total Projections
- Ravens: 11.7
- Bengals: 9.1
- Steelers: 8.2
- Browns: 5.7
Bets I Made:
- None
Thoughts
Nothing here in a division that's Baltimore's to lose, assuming the Ravens stay healthy after enjoying the best health across the league in 2024. That obviously starts with Lamar Jackson.
While the Ravens do boast adequate depth overall, a few position groups (offensive line, safety) could really take a hit with poor injury luck.
The Bengals' season will likely come down to how they perform in close shootouts.
The offense should be elite, but I'm just not sure how much new defensive coordinator Al Golden can do with one of the least talented stop units in the league.
I'm assuming the Steelers will find a way to finish 9-8 with their annual positive turnover differential and gaudy record in close games.
My numbers show value in the Browns over.
However, it's not something I want to tie my money up on with all of the quarterback uncertainty.
There's a very good chance the Browns have a poor record halfway through the season and then roll with the rookies under center.
Just take a look at Cleveland's first six opponents:
- Bengals
- at Ravens
- Packers
- at Lions
- Vikings (in London)
- at Steelers
It doesn't get much more difficult than that.
To make matters worse, Minnesota will play in Europe the week prior, and then the Browns will play at Pittsburgh without a break the very next week. Brutal.
Cleveland also has an extremely thin roster, so injuries could derail things even further.
