Packers vs. Bears Odds, Picks, Predictions

Backup quarterbacks have carried more storylines than expected across the NFC North this season, and Sunday’s Bears vs. Packers clash at Lambeau Field is no exception. Chicago arrives at 3-1 with Tyson Bagent still under center, since Caleb Williams remains weeks away from returning. Green Bay sits at 2-2 and looking to get back on track in front of its home crowd. Here’s how I’m leaning on the spread, moneyline and total before Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Before we dive in grab a Kalshi promo code, read our Kalshi review, and don't forget to download the Action Network app for more NFL picks and analysis.

Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. EDT from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The game will broadcast live on FOX. Now let's get into my Bears vs. Packers predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 11.

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My Bears vs Packers Prediction

• Bears vs Packers pick: Green Bay Packers +1.5

Bears vs Packers Odds

Bears vs. Packers NFL 5 Preview

Chicago Bears Prediction Market Preview:

Chicago arrives at Lambeau Field with a 3-1 record, even though Caleb Williams remains sidelined by a hamstring injury. Tyson Bagent takes the reins again after winning his first career start last week against the Jets, backed by a defense that’s created turnovers in each of the Bears’ wins this season. Chicago has also taken three of its last four meetings with Green Bay, and a run-heavy approach gives the Bears a path to keep that streak going even with a backup quarterback under center.

Green Bay Packers Prediction Market Preview:

Green Bay sits at 2-2 after bouncing back from a lopsided loss to Atlanta with a narrow win over Tampa Bay. Jordan Love has looked sharp when given time to throw, and the Packers get a boost from a home crowd at Lambeau that’s historically been tough on visiting favorites. A banged-up Bears backfield gives Green Bay’s defense a real chance to slow the run and put the game in Bagent’s hands instead.

Bears vs Packers Prediction Market Analysis

Green Bay gets this one at home, and that matters against a Chicago team still missing its starting quarterback. Jordan Love has been sharp when he’s had time in the pocket, and a Lambeau crowd that’s historically given road favorites trouble adds another layer for a Bears offense leaning on Tyson Bagent in just his first career start.

Chicago’s run game is also shorter-handed than usual, with D’Andre Swift banged up this week, exactly the kind of opening Green Bay’s defense can turn into short fields.

On Kalshi, Chicago’s edge on the moneyline is thin and has stayed thin all week. Taking the Packers at home looks like the sharper read than backing a Bears team breaking in a new starter on the road.

Pick: Packers Moneyline

Spread

Lambeau Field hasn’t historically been kind to road favorites, and Chicago only holds that role here by the thinnest of margins. The number sits in the low single digits, and covering it is close to even odds on Kalshi, which means taking Green Bay with the points costs very little against a Bears offense still breaking in a backup quarterback.

Moneyline

Straight up, the gap between the two teams is almost nonexistent. Chicago carries a slim edge, but Green Bay isn’t far behind… and that’s with the Bears on the road without Caleb Williams. A Lambeau crowd that’s given road favorites trouble before, plus a healthier backfield, gives the Packers a real path to the upset outright.

Over/Under

At 45.5 points, the total points to a game with some scoring punch, even with Bagent running the offense instead of Williams. Activity has leaned slightly toward the Over, with both team totals trading above a coin flip… a sign the market expects both sides to reach the end zone more than once.

My Pick: Over 45.5

Packers vs Bears Prediction Market Trends

• Chicago holds only a razor-thin edge on the moneyline, with Green Bay pulling nearly half of the activity despite playing as the slight underdog.
• The spread is drawing an almost even split, and Green Bay’s side of that number has held steady through the week rather than losing ground.
• Green Bay’s own scoring total is pulling slightly more interest than Chicago’s, a sign the market gives the Packers’ offense a real shot at home.

Bears vs. Packers Weather Forecast