Polymarket Traders Flip Falcons vs. Ravens Odds, Picks, Predictions After Lamar Jackson Injury Update

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A banged-up quarterback has turned this AFC North – NFC South crossover upside down. Baltimore limped out of last week’s win with Lamar Jackson in a walking boot, and that uncertainty has pushed Atlanta from underdog to favorite for Sunday night. The Ravens sit at 3-1, the Falcons at 2-2 and playing their best football since Michael Penix Jr. took back the starting job.
Here’s how I’m leaning on the spread, moneyline and total before Sunday’s 8:20 PM ET kickoff. Check the full breakdown below, grab a Polymarket promo code, read our Polymarket review, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis all season long.

Let's get into my Ravens vs. Falcons prediction and my NFL predictions for Week 5.

SPREAD

Atlanta now sits as the favorite here, something that looked unlikely a week ago. The number has settled with the Falcons giving a field goal, which fits a team that’s won back-to-back games since Penix returned under center. The market isn’t fully committed either way, though, trading on the spread is close to even, a sign the line is still shifting as Baltimore’s quarterback situation becomes clearer.

MONEYLINE

Outright, Atlanta carries a clearer edge. Most of that gap traces straight back to Jackson’s ankle: with Tyler Huntley trending toward the start, Baltimore’s offense loses its biggest difference-maker, and the market has adjusted accordingly. A healthy Jackson under center would likely flip this number back toward Baltimore.

TOTAL

A lower-scoring game than first expected looks like the likelier outcome here. At 43.5 points, the total has come down from where a Jackson-led matchup might have landed, since a Huntley-run offense tends to lean more on the ground game than through the air. Early trading backs that read, with slightly more interest on the Under than the Over.

My Pick: Falcons moneyline

• Ravens-Falcons Point Spread: Ravens 39¢ · Falcons 38¢
• Ravens-Falcons Total: Over/Under 43.5
• Ravens-Falcons Moneyline: Falcons 61¢ · Ravens 39¢

NFL 2026 Week 5 Picks

Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season brings a reversal nobody expected a few days ago: Baltimore spent most of September looking like the better team on paper, but an ankle injury to Lamar Jackson has turned Sunday night’s trip to Atlanta into a toss-up, if not a slight Falcons lean. Michael Penix Jr. has the Falcons playing their best football of the year, while the Ravens wait to see whether Jackson or Tyler Huntley takes the field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Everything here comes down to one question: can Lamar Jackson suit up?

Baltimore listed him as a non-participant in practice this week, and the signs point toward Tyler Huntley getting the start. That’s a real downgrade for an offense built around Jackson’s ability to extend plays with his legs, and it comes against a Falcons team that’s won consecutive games since Penix found his rhythm, with Bijan Robinson doing damage on the ground.

Close to $90,000 has already traded hands on Polymarket’s moneyline market for this one, and most of it favors Atlanta. Taking the Falcons to cover looks reasonable, but given how fluid Baltimore’s quarterback situation still is, I’d rather back Atlanta outright than lean on the exact margin.

Pick: Falcons

• Atlanta is taking in the heavier share of activity on the moneyline, with the market firmly behind the Falcons to win outright.
• The spread is drawing a closer, more even split, reflecting a line still settling as Jackson’s status becomes clearer.
• Total trading leans toward the Under, with traders expecting a more run-heavy game if Huntley starts under center.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET, live from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. The game is live on NBC.