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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) and Dallas Cowboys (1-2) square off tonight on NFL Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will stream live on Prime Video.
The Cowboys are favored by -8.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 47.5 total points. Dallas is a -480 favorite on the moneyline and Tampa Bay is a +370 underdog.
Let's get into my Buccaneers vs Cowboys predictions for Thursday Night Football Week 5.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Prediction
- Buccaneers vs Cowboys pick: Cowboys Team Total Under 29.5
My Buccaneers vs Cowboys best bet is the Cowboys team total under 29.5 points. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -108 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +370 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -112 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -480 |
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Buccaneers Have the Ball
Jalon Daniels became the first rookie quarterback to start a game this season, which is pretty wild considering he was undrafted out of Kansas. He played well enough in the preseason to win the backup job, and with Baker Mayfield expected to miss 3-6 weeks, this is his offense for now.
Daniels is a completely different QB than Mayfield. Daniels is much more run-first, and I had him pegged as someone who would scramble at a very high rate. We saw that immediately with a league-high six scrambles on 36 dropbacks last week, good for 55 rushing yards.
More importantly, Tampa completely changed the shape of its offense around him.
The Bucs rushed 31 times compared to 36 dropbacks despite never playing with the lead, and when Daniels did throw, it was about as conservative as possible. His average target was just 4.2 yards downfield — the lowest mark in Week 4 0– and he didn’t attempt a single pass 20+ yards downfield.
That’s interesting here because Dallas’ biggest weakness has clearly been its pass defense, which ranks 32nd in DVOA — but Tampa Bay may not be built to attack that weakness with Daniels.
Joey Porter Jr. should help Dallas eventually once he gets fully up to speed, but if Tampa sticks with the same run-heavy, short-passing approach, his impact may not matter much here.
I’m expecting another very conservative game plan from Tampa. Whether that actually leads to enough points to cover is another question, but what it should do is chew clock and give the Bucs a chance to control time of possession.
And that’s really where my angle on this game starts.
When the Cowboys Have the Ball
There’s much less uncertainty here.
Dak Prescott is playing at a very high level and ranks fourth in EPA per dropback. Against the Texans, he completed 32-of-45 of his pass attempts for 335 yards and a touchdown, aided by CeeDee Lamb going completely nuclear for 17 receptions, 189 yards, and one touchdown.
Now Dallas' offense gets a Tampa Bay defense that has been much more of a pass funnel and is missing Antoine Winfield Jr. and Benjamin Morrison in the secondary.
The Bucs get first-round pick Rueben Bain back after a two-game absence, which helps, but their pass rush has been a problem. They rank bottom five in pressure rate despite blitzing at a top-three rate — that’s a brutal combination against Prescott. If you’re going to blitz him constantly and still not get pressure, he’s going to carve you up.
I think Dallas can throw the ball very well here. The only problem is that I think that, you think that, your entire group chat thinks that, and the market definitely thinks that.
So the question becomes: what is the market overlooking if Dallas is still the better offense and Prescott plays well?
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Buccaneers are a Luck Rankings play tonight and I think they’re probably the sharper side, but Jalon Daniels makes the Bucs tricky to price right now. I’d rather attack this game in a way that can remove him from the equation a bit.
The first angle is simply possessions.
If Tampa sticks with the run-heavy, short-passing offense we saw last week, it should be able to shorten the game and keep Dallas' offense on the sideline more than usual. The Bucs' best defense may simply be making Dak Prescott wait.
Dallas has also been running extremely hot in the red zone, converting 81% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns. I expect them to reach the red zone at a high rate, but 81% is not sustainable (league average is around 57%). One extra field goal instead of a touchdown matters a ton when we’re dealing with a team total around 30.
And yes, Brandon Aubrey means Dallas is basically in scoring range once it crosses midfield. But Tampa has a sneaky field-position edge of its own.
Chase McLaughlin has basically perfected the new kickoff. He consistently hits low line drives into the landing zone –as a result, Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-lowest average starting field position on kickoffs. Last week, he even hit the elusive touchback-to-the-20 kick.
That may sound like a small thing, but if Dallas is consistently starting a few yards deeper, that’s just another little tax on some possessions.
The other part I like is that even if Dallas starts fast, that doesn’t necessarily kill the under.
If the Cowboys get up 10-0 or 14-3 and become more run heavy, they’re suddenly attacking the strength of Tampa’s defense, which ranks top five in DVOA against the run. So as Dallas builds a lead, its scoring efficiency could actually start to drop.
That’s really the bet here.
I’m not saying the Cowboys offense is bad. I’d be surprised if Prescott doesn’t play well again.
I’m betting on the following things: Tampa Bay shortening the game, red-zone regression for Dallas, and McLaughlin quietly hurting the Cowboys' starting field position. And if Dallas does build a lead, the game may naturally shift toward the strongest part of the Bucs defense.
There are enough little edges stacking in the same direction for me to like Cowboys team total under 29.5.
And since 30 is a pretty important number for team totals, I’m going to be patient. Most of the action is predictably coming in on Dallas and the over, so I’d rather wait and see if this gets pushed to 30.5 or higher before locking it in.
Pick: Cowboys Team Total Under 29.5
