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Packers vs Commanders NFL Week 7 Picks, Prediction

Packers vs Commanders NFL Week 7 Picks, Prediction article feature image
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Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Taylor Heinicke.

  • Taylor Heinicke faces the Packers in his first start of 2022 today.
  • Green Bay is a road favorite against the 2-4 Commanders.
  • Blake Krass previews the game and makes his pick below.

Packers vs. Commanders Odds

Sunday, Oct. 23
1 p.m. ET
FOX
Packers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-106
41.5
-198
Commanders Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-114
41.5
+164
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Packers are currently at one of the lowest points of the Aaron Rodgers era — and certainly the lowest point of the Matt LaFleur era.

They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Jets at home and the Giants in London. Their only wins this year have come against the dreadful Bears, in OT against the Patriots in Bailey Zappe’s first-ever NFL game, and when they only scored 14 points against the Bucs in a game where Tampa was missing their entire receiving corps.

Aaron Rodgers has not looked like himself, and the lack of skill position players for the Packers is astonishing. Defensively, the Packers have also struggled, and they have allowed quarterbacks like  Zappe, Zach Wilson, and Daniel Jones to lead touchdown drives against them in key moments.

It hasn’t been a dream season for the Commanders, either, but they are coming off a win on Thursday Night Football which might have instilled some confidence while also providing 10 days of rest and extra prep time before this matchup. This will be the first start of the year for Taylor Heinicke, with Carson Wentz being sidelined with a hand injury for the next few weeks.

Here are my NFL Week 7 picks and predictions for Packers vs. Commanders in our betting preview.

Packers vs. Commanders Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Packers and Commanders match up statistically:

Packers vs. Commanders DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 10 11
Pass DVOA 16 19
Rush DVOA 10 5
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 29 24
Pass DVOA 29 9
Rush DVOA 29 32

Taylor Heinicke is not a good NFL quarterback, and we shouldn’t pretend he is. But what he does better than Carson Wentz is making plays with his legs. That is crucial against this Packers defense, which you don’t really want to throw against. They rank a solid ninth in defensive pass DVOA but are dead last in the league in defensive rush DVOA.

Last week, we saw the Jets come to Green Bay and get a win despite Zach Wilson completing 10 passes for 110 yards. However, Breece Hall & Co. did run for 179 yards and two TDs to secure the victory. Washington will be able to rely heavily on the rush, including gadget plays for Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. These two teams played last year with Heinicke starting at QB and Heinicke ran for 95 yards himself against Green Bay.

For the Packers, Aaron Rodgers has said his goal is to simplify the offense and slow things down. They have been much more effective running the football than throwing it so far this year, and it sounds like Rodgers wants Green Bay to become even more methodical than they have been. That plays into the hands of a Commanders defense that is fifth in defensive rush DVOA. The Packers will also be without Randall Cobb and Christian Watson this week, leaving their passing attack in even greater disarray.

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The Packers are not just in a funk. Overall, their roster isn’t all that great, and there is a clear lack of coordination between the quarterback, head coach, and skill position players.

With the Packers looking to emphasize the run and the Commanders also emphasizing the run against a bad Packers run defense, points should be at a premium in this matchup, giving even more value to the underdog Commanders.

Heinicke could inject a jolt of life into this Commanders’ offense with his style of play that is so different from Carson Wentz. Defensively, Washington is built to withstand the Packers’ rushing attack. I think this game comes down to the wire, and the Packers could possibly drop their third straight game as favorites.

Pick: Commanders +5 | Bet to Commanders +3.5

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