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Lions vs Packers Odds, Picks, Prediction | Week 9

Lions vs Packers Odds, Picks, Prediction | Week 9 article feature image
Credit:

Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.

  • The Packers are road favorites this afternoon in Detroit.
  • Green Bay enters this matchup against the Lions having lost four straight games.
  • Blake Krass breaks down the matchup and makes his pick below.

Lions vs Packers Odds

Sunday, Nov. 6
1 p.m. ET
FOX
Lions Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3.5
-106
49.5
-110o / -110u
+164
Packers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3.5
-114
49.5
-110o / -110u
-196
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

This is a battle of two NFC North teams desperate for a win. The Lions have lost five straight and the Packers have lost four straight entering Sunday.

Both teams have had issues finishing games and finding ways to win. The Packers blew second-half leads to the Giants and Commanders over the past few weeks and the Lions have a total of four one-possession losses this season.

In a game where both teams should be able to exploit each other’s weaknesses, it will be interesting to see which team can actually close out the game. Personally, I don’t trust either of them to not blow a late lead so I think the total is the best way to attack this game.

Packers vs. Lions Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Packers and Lions match up statistically:

Packers vs. Lions DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 8 32
Pass DVOA 12 32
Rush DVOA 9 30
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 10 22
Pass DVOA 16 9
Rush DVOA 7 31

Both offenses should be able to have a lot of success in this game. Despite the Packers’ struggles this season, they are eighth in offensive DVOA. That is also with playing the fifth-hardest schedule of defenses according to DVOA. It will be a different story with the Lions’ dead-last-ranked defense.

The Lions have the 32nd-ranked defense according to DVOA and they have been decimated by both the run and the pass. The Packers have had a lot of issues at the wide receiver position this year but as time goes on, Aaron Rodgers will only develop better with Romeo Doubs and some of his other new receivers.


Bet the NFL at FanDuel
Packers -3.5 | Lions +3.5


The Packers have also run the ball very well this season and will be able to mix up the play calling, keeping the Lions’ defense on its toes. Allen Lazard is expected to be a true game-time decision but if he does play, that will be a huge boost for the Green Bay offense.

The Lions have a top-10 offense this season per DVOA and have been even more effective at home, averaging 35.75 points per game in their four games at Ford Field this year. The Lions have been particularly successful running the football behind their elite offensive line, sitting seventh in Rush DVOA.

For the Packers defense, this Lions run game will be a problem. Green Bay’s defense ranks 31st in the NFL in Rush DVOA. They have also given up more than 150 rushing yards to four of their last five opponents. D’Andre Swift could potentially return this week which would be massive for the Lions, but even if he doesn’t go Jamaal Williams should have a lot of success behind his offensive line.

Both teams will also be without several players on defense. Among them, Packers starting linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and three members of the Lions secondary.

Betting Picks

The Packers and Lions could both get back arguably their biggest offensive weapons in Allen Lazard and Swift, which would heavily boost these offenses. Overall, both offenses should be able to exploit their opponent’s defensive weakness.

The Lions offense has been very impressive at home this season. The total points scored in each Lions home game this year is ridiculous. Their home games are averaging an absurd 71.75 points per game, and each one has comfortably gone over this game’s total of 49.5.

In a game where neither defense can be trusted, the over is the best path here. Both teams have shown they are liable to give up points late in games and blow leads. Points should be easy to come by in this game, and this total should cruise over.

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