The fifth Sunday of the 2025 NFL season will come to a close with a Sunday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills on October 5. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on NBC.
Our player props for SNF tonight target Josh Allen, Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson and James Cook.
Let's dive into my four Patriots vs Bills player props for Sunday Night Football Week 5.
Patriots vs Bills Player Props
- Drake Maye Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-118 at BetMGM)
- TreVeyon Henderson Over 2.5 Receptions (-108 at Caesars)
- James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (+130 at bet365)
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125 at bet365)
Patriots vs Bills Prop Picks, Preview
Drake Maye Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Heading into Sunday Night Football, we see Drake Maye face the league’s best pass defense.
Maye has been on a strong run recently, with Over 1.5 passing touchdowns in three straight games. Still, it feels too risky to back that here.
So instead, we’re taking the Patriots quarterback to have Over 38.5 rushing yards. It’s a number that he’s hit only once this season, against the Steelers in Week 3.
However, this game against the Bills gives him a strong chance of going over.
Maye averaged five yards per carry when he faced the Bills last season, and now he goes against the team that has allowed the most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year (averaging 49.7 per game).
Even if you remove Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards in the game against the Ravens, the Bills are still averaging 43 rushing yards given up to quarterbacks per game this season.
Pick: Drake Maye Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-118 at BetMGM)
TreVeyon Henderson Over 2.5 Receptions (-108)
The Bills have allowed an average of four receptions per game to running backs, which offers a good opportunity for TreVeyon Henderson to hit the over on his receptions total of 2.5.
Last week, Alvin Kamara caught four passes when the Saints played the Bills, while De'Von Achane had seven the week before.
Now back to Henderson. He’s had an average of 3.25 receptions per game and has had three or more grabs in 50% of his games this season.
Henderson hasn’t taken over the backfield yet, but when watching the Patriots, it’s clear that he has the juice in that running back corps.
We’re going to see him used in the passing game, and it’s notable that in the Patriots' two defeats, he’s had three or more receptions.
That’s an important factor in a game where the Bills are big favorites to win.
Pick: TreVeyon Henderson Over 2.5 Receptions (-108 at Caesars)
James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (+130)
We’re backing another running back to have over 2.5 receptions — this time, it’s James Cook.
Only three teams entered Week 5 having allowed more receptions to running backs than the Patriots. Through the opening four games of the season, we’ve seen running backs average 5.75 catches against them.
We’ve also seen Cook get three or more receptions in three or four games this season, with Week 2 against the Jets as the only exception. In those other three games, he had 11 receptions on 12 targets.
Given the Patriots’ tendency to give up receptions to RBs, we should see Cook cover.
Pick: James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (+130 at bet365)
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)
You can’t wager on a Bills game without backing Josh Allen.
Allen has had over 1.5 passing touchdowns in three of four games, throwing multiple TDs against the Ravens, Dolphins and Saints.
If you look back at his previous 12 games, stretching back into last season, the Bills QB has had over 1.5 passing touchdowns in nine of them.
Now he faces a Patriots defense that has given up an average of 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, with Tua Tagovailoa and Aaron Rodgers both throwing multiple touchdowns.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125 at bet365)
Patriots vs Bills Prop Bets
- Drake Maye Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-118 at BetMGM)
- TreVeyon Henderson Over 2.5 Receptions (-108 at Caesars)
- James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (+130 at bet365)
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125 at bet365)
