I went 1-4 on NFL props in Week 16 and am now 34-21 (61.8%) for the season. I've compiled a list of player prop picks for NFL Week 17.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 17, including picks for Jaguars vs Colts, Saints vs Titans and Cardinals vs Bengals.
NFL Player Props — Week 17
- Michael Pittman Over 4.5 Receptions (+101 at DraftKings, -110 at MGM)
- Cam Ward Over 0.5 Interceptions (+116 at FanDuel, +106 at DraftKings)
- Emari Demercado Under 1.5 Receptions (+105 at BetMGM, +100 at Bet365)
Jaguars vs Colts Player Props: Michael Pittman Receptions
Back in Week 14, I gave out Pittman over 4.5 receptions, and laddered him up to 9+ receptions against this same Jaguars team. He ended up catching nine passes on 12 targets.
I'm going right back to the well since the only thing that's changed is the QB.
The Jaguars allow the most targets and receptions to players aligned out wide, which Pittman should do on around 70% of his routes. He is also the Colts WR who has a target share increase against zone coverage, while Alec Pierce and Josh Downs are targeted at higher rates against man coverage than zone coverage, which the Jags play at a top-five rate.
I'm not going full ladder here given the QB situation with Philip Rivers, but there should be enough volume as underdogs to clear this line.
Pick: Michael Pittman Over 4.5 Receptions (+101)
Saints vs Titans Player Props: Cam Ward Interceptions
Ward has just one interception in his last seven games, but a lot of that seems to be driven by luck.
In those seven games, Ward has eight turnover-worthy throws (TWT), according to Fantasy Points data, and 10 turnover-worthy plays (TWP), according to PFF.
Regardless of which number we use, one interception is way below expectation.
Typically, around 55-60% of PFF's TWPs go for an interception, while the figure is higher for Fantasy Points TWTs because they tend to grade fewer as turnover worthy.
That means we'd expect around 5.5 interceptions for Ward in that span, compared to the one he has.
The Saints have the second-highest TWT% forced in the league at 4.3% but only have nine interceptions to show for it, rendering them on the unlucky side.
We're combining a double luck spot, a lucky QB against an unlucky defense. These things tend to regress to long-term rates, so the market is just too high on Ward's expected proficiency here.
I have Ward favored to throw an interception, so getting plus money on this prop is nice.
Picks: Cam Ward Over 0.5 Interceptions (+116 at FanDuel)
Cardinals vs Bengals Player Props: Emari Demercado Receptions
The Bengals have been a different defense since their Week 10 bye, playing man coverage at a 10% higher rate, and single-high safety looks at a 6.5% higher rate.
What that has done is shift targets away from RBs. Prior to the bye, the Bengals allowed the sixth-most targets per game to backfield-aligned players at 5.6 per game. However, since the bye, that has dropped to 4.3, ranking 21st.
Demercado has yet to bet targeted against man coverage this year, so that doesn't bode well for him with the Bengals using man coverage at what would be a top-five season-long rate since their bye.
In six games where he's run at least seven routes, he has cleared this half the time. However, that came against defenses averaging 5.5 targets per game to backfield-aligned players, including two against the Seahawks, who allow the most in the league and one against the 49ers, who allow the third-most. And, of course, those were the three games he cleared this line.
I'm projecting Demercado for 1.3 receptions, so I love getting plus money on the under.
Pick: Emari Demercado Under 1.5 Receptions (+105)
Dr Nick's Week 17 Prop Bets
- Michael Pittman Over 4.5 Receptions (+101 at DraftKings, -110 at MGM)
- Cam Ward Over 0.5 Interceptions (+116 at FanDuel, +106 at DraftKings)
- Emari Demercado Under 1.5 Receptions (+105 at BetMGM, +100 at Bet365)
