It was an unexpectedly quiet Week 7, but the Doctor is back. I've compiled a list of player prop picks for NFL Week 8.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 8, including picks for Browns vs Patriots, Bills vs Panthers, Titans vs Colts and Commanders vs Chiefs.
NFL Player Props — Week 8
- RB TreVeyon Henderson Longest Rush Under 7.5 Yards (-110, DraftKings)
- QB Andy Dalton Over 1.5 Rush Attempts (+115, bet365)
- QB Cam Ward Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-109, DraftKings)
- QB Marcus Mariota Over 23.5 Rush Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Browns vs Patriots Player Prop: TreVeyon Henderson Longest Rush
Only three of TreVeyon Henderson's 42 carries from at least eight yards away from the end zone (7.1%) have cleared this number, which is well below the league average rate of 17.7%.
The Patriots face a strong Browns run defense that ranks inside the top 10 in preventing explosive runs. Not only that, but Cleveland has been elite at stopping man/gap concept runs, allowing the third-lowest success rate and the lowest yards per carry.
That is important because Henderson has skewed 60/40 toward man/gap concept runs.
Even if I were generous and counted Henderson's two seven-yard runs as eight-yard runs, I'd still get him staying under this number 53.5% of the time at six carries.
But of course, I'm being generous in two ways here:
- I'm counting two runs that wouldn't have cleared.
- Giving him his consensus line of six carries when I am projecting him for fewer carries than that.
All in all, I have this around 58% to 63% to stay under using the most realistic edge cases and projections.
Pick: TreVeyon Henderson Longest Rush Under 7.5 Yards (-110)
Bills vs Panthers Player Prop: Andy Dalton Rush Attempts
Andy Dalton has scrambled seven times on 252 dropbacks as a Panther, which equates to one in every 36 dropbacks. He's projected for 36 dropbacks on the dot, so that's one scramble on average.
He's facing a Bills defense that allows quarterbacks to scramble right at their league-average rates so far through six games, so there doesn't need to be much adjustment.
However, I'd suspect the long-term scramble rate to be higher given the Bills' high-pressure rate and use of two-high safety looks, both of which tend to promote more scrambling.
In his starts as a Panther, Dalton has one rush attempt for every 18 dropbacks, which would put him at two rush attempts.
The most likely way that he'll run here is with a scramble, and the Panthers are 7-7.5 underdogs.
If that most-likely scenario happens and Carolina is trailing by one or two scores for a good chunk of the game, Dalton projects for more like 43 dropbacks, which could really help.
Accounting slightly less propensity to scramble and/or likely to get sacked at his age, and lower kneel down probability, I'm still getting 1.87 rush attempts, which would equate to around a 56% chance to clear 1.5, so getting +115 is nearly a 10% edge.
A designed run/QB sneak isn't out of the question, or even an aborted snap fumble recovery, which would count as a run. There are lots of little subtle ways to get an extra carry that all get factored in and add up.
Pick: Andy Dalton Over 1.5 Rush Attempts (+115)
Titans vs Colts Player Prop: Cam Ward Pass Attempts
Cam Ward's median is 34 pass attempts this year, but the Titans are 14.5-point 'dogs to the Colts, so we can expect more than 34 as a starting point here.
The Colts actually have a below-average time of possession, especially compared to the opponents the Titans have faced this year. Because of that, I expect Tennessee to spend more time with the ball.
That's in part thanks to the Colts' extreme explosiveness with Jonathan Taylor on the ground and several big plays through the air. Additionally, the Colts project as the most explosive team overall in Week 8.
Indianapolis has made a ton of big defensive plays (sixth most turnovers forced per game) to leave them with short fields or even defensive scores, handing the ball back to their opponent quickly.
I'm projecting this stat to be closer to 36 pass attempts with an upside for around 39 attempts.
Pick: Cam Ward Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-109)
Commanders vs Chiefs Player Prop: Marcus Mariota Rush Yards
The Chiefs allow quarterbacks to scramble at the highest rate in the league, and over 20 percentage points over their scramble expectation.
Even Jared Goff had one of his four scrambles on the season two weeks ago against the Chiefs.
Marcus Mariota already scrambles on 5.2% of his dropbacks as a Commander and at a 20% increased rate, that would be around 6.25% of dropbacks.
The Chiefs allow nearly eight yards per carry on quarterback scrambles and Mariota has run for just over eight yards per carry on scrambles, so with around 2.25 projected scrambles, that's 18 yards on average there.
Mariota also projects for about four designed runs and 0.25 kneel downs based on the rates he's been used as a rusher in his two seasons in Washington, and the total expected play volume.
Even at the Chiefs' stingy 2.33 YPC allowed on non-sneak designed runs to quarterbacks, that would give Mariota a projection of just over 27 yards, but we have to think the true number is somewhere between the Chiefs' 2.33 and Mariota's 6.4 YPC on designed runs.
I'm conservatively projecting an average closer to 31 and a median around 26.5 yards.
Pick: Marcus Mariota Over 23.5 Rush Yards (-114)
Dr Nick's Week 8 Prop Bets
- RB TreVeyon Henderson Longest Rush Under 7.5 Yards (-110, DraftKings)
- QB Andy Dalton Over 1.5 Rush Attempts (+115, bet365)
- QB Cam Ward Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-109, DraftKings)
- QB Marcus Mariota Over 23.5 Rush Yards (-114, FanDuel)
