In Week 7, the NFL Luck Dashboard picked up another First Touchdown long-shot hit with Bo Nix (+2000) scoring against the Cardinals, which the model had as the No. 1 +EV bet of the game at an expected ROI of 37%.
That comes after a big Week 6 which had several long-shot winners.
If you were to bet every single +EV edge the model picked up on its final update before each game after inactives came out, using quarter-Kelly bet staking, you'd be up the following amounts:
- Week 6: +25.33 units
- Week 7: +0.19 units
- Overall: +25.52 units
Each week, the dashbboard will be updated daily, with additional updates after inactives are announced an hour and a half prior to kickoff of each window of games.
I'd strongly advise to wait for inactives to come out before firing any bets. The midweek version of the model can be a bit off as practice reports come in and change things, and as players get taken off or put on IR it takes time to update the data. Treat the post-inactives update as the final and best version of the model for each game.
Here's the Week 8 NFL First Touchdown Model, starting with Panthers and Packers on Thursday Night Football!
