We are at the halfway point of the regular season as we delve into NFL Week 9.
Last week was fantastic for us as Jonah Coleman and Josh Cuevas really showed up and delivered. We finished the week up four units with a 24% ROI. On the season, we are now up just over 11 units in this column for a 9.0% ROI.
There is a fun slate ahead of us today with plenty of angles to attack. Let's get into my NFL Week 9 Mega Preview.
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NFL Week 9 Picks, Props, Same-Game Parlays
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Jets vs Chiefs
I keep betting the Jets this season because the books keep underrating them.
New York has five one-score losses this year, some of those against tough opponents like Green Bay, Detroit, and New England.
The Jets just have a tendency to hang around in games. They have only failed to cover +10 once all year, and that was an 11-point loss in Chicago. It's not that I think the Jets are a good team, I just don't think they are terrible. They're a generic below-average team that's competed hard this season.
The Jets have moved the ball well. They rank 16th by DVOA, league average, and the young offensive line is really coming together, helping them run the ball well with Braelon Allen. In the last two weeks, the Jets offense ranks first in EPA per play and fourth in success rate.
On the flip side, the Chiefs offense has struggled. They rely heavily on explosive plays to move the chains, but they are not finding them as frequently lately.
Patrick Mahomes is the first quarterback in two decades to have an average depth of target of 5.0 yards or less in three straight weeks. Since the Tyreek Hill trade, Mahomes actually has more playoff wins now (nine) than passing touchdowns of 20+ air yards (seven). Crazy!
This has become a check-down offense hoping to win close games. The Chiefs aren't really a blowout team anymore. Since 2022, Mahomes home unders as a favorite are 24-8 (a 75% hit rate). The Chiefs just like to keep things in control and win close if necessary.
The Jets defense has been better with Aaron Glenn calling plays, and the secondary has come together to rank in the top half of the league in limiting explosives. This all sets up well for New York.
The Jets are also a massive Luck Rankings side for us.
According to Nick Giffen, the Jets would be 6-2 if their games went by his deserved score metric. Luck sides that are more than a touchdown underdog are 20-4-2 ATS (an 83% cover rate). I will gladly take the Jets +10 — but we are not stopping there.
Since 2023, moneyline underdogs of +300 to +475 in the early Sunday window are 23-30 SU. That may not sound amazing, but those big dogs are giving us 95% ROI on the moneyline!
They're als 4-3 this season, cashing on massive upsets by the Giants (over Texans), Commanders (over Seahawks), and Saints (over Ravens).
The trend gets even better if the opponent was a 'dog in their previous game like the Chiefs were. In those spots, the dogs are 9-7 SU for 149% ROI.
I wanted to take the Giants over the Texans two weeks ago and the Titans over the Bengals last week, both of which fit this trend. The Titans should've finished the job, and the Giants did. This time, I'm doing it — the Jets can steal this game.
Pick: Jets +10 (BetMGM)
Pick: Jets Moneyline (+425 at DraftKings)
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Lions vs Dolphins
The total in this game has risen over 50 points at books.
The Dolphins defense is among the least talented in the league, and I considered the Lions' team total over since they should score plenty. Detroit's defense is not much better by the numbers, and it's missing Jack Campbell and potentially Brian Branch and D.J. Reed in the secondary.
I expect points, so we are playing some receiving props.
The Lions have been awful against tight ends. They are the worst in the league, actively lapping the field. Detroit has allowed the most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to the position. The Lions are allowing 8.7 tight end receptions per game so far! That's so many.
Greg Dulcich gets 78% of Miami's tight end targets. Over the last four weeks, his route participation is up to 70% with a 21% target share. Dulcich has four or more catches and 37 or more yards in four straight healthy games.
We are simply betting on volume in a trailing game script.
Pick: Greg Dulcich Over 3.5 Receptions (-120 at Fanatics)
Escalator #1: Dulcich 5+ Receptions (+175 at Fanatics)
Escalator #2: Dulcich 80+ Receiving Yards (+650 at bet365)
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins have been poor against receiving RBs. They lead the league with five touchdowns allowed to the position while surrendering about four catches per game to RBs.
Jahmyr Gibbs was quiet as a receiver last week because Brian Flores forced him to stay in and pass block. His lines dropped as a result, but his receiving volume is way up this year.
Before the Minnesota game, Gibbs had four or more catches in every game and five in all but one, with 56+ yards in half of them.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 3.5 Receptions (-130 at FanDuel)
Escalator #1: Gibbs 5+ Receptions (+160 at Hard Rock)
Escalator #2: Gibbs 50+ Receiving Yards (+400 at bet365)
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Cowboys vs Colts
The Colts defense has not been good, and there is little reason to think they can stop the Cowboys.
The Indianapolis secondary is banged up, and Dallas boasts the No. 7 offense by DVOA. The Cowboys have scored 30+ points in five of their eight games. They are always dangerous on an indoor fast track, which they get this week in Indianapolis.
The Colts have allowed 33 points to Kansas City, 34 to Pittsburgh, 41 to Baltimore, and 42 to Jacksonville. They are actively trading players away, and who knows if Jonathan Taylor or Josh Downs will even play. Daniel Jones is starting again for some reason.
Plenty of trends point to the over, but I have no idea what to expect from the Indianapolis offense. I'll just isolate the side I feel confident in and bet the Dallas team total. The Cowboys should score whatever they need.
I am also keeping an eye on Cowboys receiver Ryan Flournoy. George Pickens has fallen out of favor and actually dropped below Flournoy in snaps last week. Flournoy has seen his snaps rise from 46 to 57 per game over the last three weeks.
He runs underneath routes, slants, and posts right over the middle where Indianapolis is weakest. He has cleared 37 receiving yards in five straight games.
Pick: Cowboys Team Total Over 28.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Pick: Ryan Flournoy Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-111 at BetMGM)
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Browns vs Saints
I genuinely cannot believe we are making the Saints a full field goal favorite in a real football game.
The Browns continue to slowly move up my power ratings and just cracked the top 20. The young offensive line is making a serious leap of late, and the defense has been good.
Unfortunately, Deshaun Watson entered concussion protocol, which means Shedeur Sanders is starting. I still make this game close to a coin flip, but I do not need to bet on Sanders on the road.
I looked back at the six games Sanders started last season — it was not pretty. The Browns offense only scored 11 touchdowns total in those games.
However, Harold Fannin Jr. was the main beneficiary. He scored five of those 11 touchdowns and averaged 4.7 catches for 51.5 yards on 7.3 targets with Sanders.
The Saints rank in the top seven for most fantasy points allowed to tight ends and have surrendered four touchdowns to the position over their last five games.
Let's see if the Fannin-Sanders connection is still a thing.
Pick: Harold Fannin Anytime TD (+250 at DraftKings)
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Broncos vs Panthers
By DVOA, this is a pretty even matchup with a slight advantage to Denver.
However, that relies on treating Carolina as a top-20 team on both offense and defense, which I am absolutely not buying. The Panthers have extra rest after losing to the Packers on Thursday Night Football, but their injuries are brutal.
The Panthers are dealing cluster injuries on the offensive line and at cornerback, which devastates those units. Bryce Young looked good for a month, but the comedown has been rough. It is hard to see him succeeding with such poor blocking against an aggressive Denver pass rush.
I think this game is priced about right. Denver should be able to run on a bad defense, making this another good Jonah Coleman spot. I don't mind Denver -2.5 — but let's get creative.
The best part of the Carolina team this season is offensive coordinator Brad Idzik. The opening script is still working. Carolina has scored first in four of seven games, all on the opening drive. The Panthers have extra time to come up with a good plan of attack.
Denver is notorious for starting slow and winning from behind, cashing this exact game script in three of six wins this season.
Pick: Panthers to Score First and Lose (+330 at DraftKings)
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Cardinals vs Seahawks
Both teams are making a change at quarterback this week.
The Cardinals are switching to everyone's favorite backup, Gardner Minshew. The Seahawks are going with Drew Lock with Sam Darnold's quad injury.
The market reaction to this news has been a crazy overreaction. This line was creeping towards Seahawks -12, but it dropped to -8.5.
In what world is Darnold worth three or more points over Lock? Are we even positive this is not just a soft benching?
I dropped both of these teams a similarly small amount in my power ratings, making the quarterback swaps mostly negligible. Books overreacted, and I am north of Seattle -10, so we get value.
There is a massive gulf in class between these teams.
The Cardinals have a league average offense by DVOA, but that is not the unit taking the field. Their top running back is hurt, their top receiver was traded, their top offensive lineman is hurt, and their starting quarterback was benched. This is a second-string unit going up against a pissed off, embarrassed No. 1 defense in Seattle.
The Cardinals' run defense ranks in the top 10 by DVOA, but that is wasted on a Seattle team that can't run the ball anyway. Arizona has the second-worst pass defense in the NFL, and Lock already lit them up in Week 2.
In two games with Lock under center this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has posted lines of 8/122/1 and 9/155/3 (this one against Arizona).
We have proof of concept. Smith-Njigba has an even higher target share this year, and he is finding the end zone constantly.
The Seahawks should roll, especially if JSN has another huge game against them.
Pick: Seahawks -8.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (-120 at bet365)
Escalator #1: JSN 2+ TDs and Seahawks -8.5 (+651 at FanDuel)
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Texans vs Chargers
This was always going to be an under for me.
It projects as the slowest game of the main Sunday slate, and it feels very much like both defenses have the clear advantage.
The Chargers are 0-7, but their defense has quietly been pretty good under defensive coordinator Chris O'Leary.
The pass defense in particular has been solid, and the secondary is playing well. They are poor against the run, but the Texans can't run. The Chargers defense is doing enough to give them a chance in these games.
The Chargers offense, on the other hand, is a disaster. They rank 32nd in DVOA and EPA and are just dreadful across the board.
Justin Herbert looks absolutely lost, and the run game is broken. The Chargers' offensive line trying to block Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter is a massive mismatch.
DeMeco Ryans is calling the defensive plays again, and the Texans are coming off a bye. This is a great get-right spot for the defense. It's honestly hard to imagine how the Chargers score at all.
This is a fantastic trends spot for the under, too.
Ryans road unders hit at 61%. Jim Harbaugh totals under 44 points also hit at 61%, the most profitable coach in BetLabs for unders. Herbert is 19-11 to the under in that spot, too, and Chargers unders are 6-1 this season.
Pick: Under 41 (BetMGM)
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Buccaneers vs Bears
It's a third straight primetime game for the Bears, and nobody is complaining.
They might be the most fun team in the league right now. They even have Jeffery Simmons in orange sleeves dominating the defensive line.
The Buccanneers have the No. 1 defense in the league by DVOA, but the Bears just hung 34 on Seattle. I see no reason they cannot score on the Bucs.
I do not have a great feel for the Buccaneers offense versus the Bears defense right now. We have not really seen Baker Mayfield pass effectively since his injury, and I need to see the Bears defend against a real playoff offense before we believe too far.
No side for me, but my gut says the Bucs are due for a comedown. Ben Johnson as a playcaller is 19-4-1 ATS in primetime, so I expect the Bears to show up offensively.
That leads me to Colston Loveland.
Loveland had a slow start to the season, but he is doing everything we hoped for since Caleb Williams returned. Loveland has three straight games with 6+ receptions and 65+ yards.
Over that span, Loveland has 28 targets and is playing around 90% of the snaps. With Cole Kmet out, he's on the field nearly every down. His target share has doubled from 14% to 29%, and his yards per route run has tripled from 0.7 to 2.1. Loveland has 6+ catches in five of his last six full games with a healthy Williams.
The Buccaneers might be the top DVOA defense, but they continue to be leaky against tight ends. They rank in the bottom 10 against tight ends by fantasy points four straight seasons, and only five teams have allowed more tight end touchdowns.
Loveland is Williams' hot read against the blitz, and Todd Bowles is always blitzing. We will get designed touches and check downs all night.
If you want a futures pick, I like investing in Loveland to go over 12.0 PPR PPG on the season now that he's proven his pace with Caleb Williams. You can listen to the podcast for more on the numbers.
Pick: Colston Loveland Over 5.5 Receptions (+122 at bet365)
Pick: Colston Loveland Anytime TD (+165 at BetMGM)
Escalator #1: Loveland 7+ Receptions (+225 at bet365)
Escalator #2: Loveland 6+ Receptions and Anytime TD (+300 at DraftKings)
Prediction Market Pick: Loveland Over 12.0 PPR PPG for the Season (+170 at Polymarket)
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