I feel like we’re still maybe 1-2 games away from Parker becoming a full-on “he good, me bet over” type player where you’re not really outfoxing the books or the market anymore, everyone is just on the same page that he’s an absolute STUD. I’m only showing a little value here with a median closer to 75.5 yards, but I’m also the guy behind the curtain building these projections, so I know where some of the inputs are probably still a bit too conservative. I’m not blindly betting an over just because Parker is good, but I’m also not going to pretend the difference between 73.5 and 75.5 tells the entire story here. After doing the full deep dive and updating everything for this game, all roads sort of led back to Parker. Jacksonville has breezed to a 2-1 start and played with the lead so much that Trevor Lawrence was literally passing up walk-in TDs to let his RB punch it in on the next play with 8+ minutes left. As slight road dogs, I’m projecting them to trail at a ~40% higher rate, which should naturally mean more passing. It could also get them out of some of the heavy TE personnel they’ve been using, which would mean more routes for Parker (and Meyers). Cincinnati has also played man at an above-average rate while blitzing at the lowest rate in the league, and Parker’s usage spikes against both looks. On his 10 routes against man with no blitz, he has a completely ridiculous 60% target rate and 6.60 YPRR. Obviously that isn’t remotely sustainable, but I do think it’s pointing us in the right direction. The prop market for this game is extremely sharp imo, so I’m not sitting here pretending I’ve uncovered some massive hidden edge. But I think there’s still a small window to buy in on Parker before his overs, alt overs and TDs are just part of everyone’s weekly portfolio and I’m not even able to show 2 yards of value on him anymore. My median is 75.5 yards, but I like his upside way more than that number suggests and not the type of market I expect his actual number to be super close. Gonna go 4/35/0 or 7/108/1 and makes me a bit more immune to 0.5/close bet luck coming into play lol