Texans vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - October 18, 2026

Rodriguez saw a season-low 8.3% of Jacksonville’s designed rush attempts last week as the Jags leaned much more heavily on Bhayshul Tuten. I do expect CRod’s workload to bounce back some here, but probably not all the way back to the role he had in Weeks 1-4. Game script could work against him too. Jacksonville has trailed only 13% of the time this season, lowest in the league. Even as 2.5-point favorites here, teams in that range typically trail at a rate about 22% higher than what Jacksonville has experienced so far. That matters because Rodriguez’s rushing share drops even further when the Jags are behind. He’s handled just 1 of their 20 designed rush attempts while trailing. The matchup is also much tougher. Houston ranks 3rd in DVOA against the run, and Rodriguez is generally more likely to be used in short-yardage/goal-line situations anyway, which can help his TD equity but isn’t great for piling up rushing yards. I have his median closer to 14.5 yards with around a 61% chance to stay under 16.5.

I have this game lined at -1.5 on Jacksonville, what I make a game is far from gospel, I tend to use my numbers as more of a market prediction, rather than trying to predict the future. What this line tells me is that we are now over-indexing the “Jags stay in London” factor that we are all well aware of. The Jags are 23rd in pass block score according to PFN, the Eagles created a load of pressure on Trevor and I worry the Texans will do much of the same. Don’t overlook the absence of a dependable long-snapper as well, Liam Coen is ordering snappers off Etsy to come and play for the team on Sunday. Texans +2.5 (+108 on NoVig)

Ka'imi Fairbairn under 7.5 kicking pts (-111 at DK) Houston is a Luck Rankings side meaning they are more likely to cover the spread, and if that's the case it's probably thanks to some red zone TD regression. Houston ranks 20th in red zone TD rate despite ranking 13th in my offensive power rankings and in offensive DVOA. There's also some wind forecast for Wembley Stadium, with gusts into the mid 20s which can cause a bit of havoc on the field, as well as a 60% chance of rain. That's a far cry from the comfortable conditions Fairbairn has at Reliant Stadium at home. I'm projecting 7.2 kicking points with a 57% chance to stay under 7.5, while our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has an even lower projection of 6.6 points. When we're in lockstep, it makes me even more confident, so I'm locking this one in.

Short Line With Movement Overall: 133-59-0,69% (ROI:24%) Season:4-0-0,100% (ROI:61%) Short Favs Overall: 90-25-0,78% (ROI:29%) Season:1-0-0,100% (ROI:63%) #TSA

@wheatonbrando https://youtu.be/C8cDtGmsRoc?is=H2mDKq4cvRPnthaM

@gneiffer07 https://youtu.be/Id4ZG8i0BuA?is=gnS14ZQS5PFVwPY-

@nick_giffen https://www.youtube.com/live/foaxuotRwPw?is=_XwPquObdNs1uQy5