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Week 6 of the NFL season is officially underway, and our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in NFL prop bets for Sunday, featuring picks for Texans vs. Jaguars, Panthers vs. Eagles, Titans vs Colts, and more.
Let's get into his NFL Week 6 player props and best bets for Sunday, October 18.
NFL Player Props Week 6
- Chris Rodriguez Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-112, DraftKings)
- Daniel Jones Under 234.5 Passing Yards (-113, FanDuel)
- Darren Waller Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
- Cade Otton Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-116, DraftKings)
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Chris Rodriguez Rushing Yards
Chris Rodriguez saw a season-low 8.3% of Jacksonville’s designed rush attempts last week, as the Jaguars leaned much more heavily on Bhayshul Tuten.
I do expect CRod’s workload to bounce back some here, but probably not all the way back to the role he had in Weeks 1-4.
The game script could work against him too. Jacksonville has trailed only 13% of the time this season — the lowest mark in the league.
Even as 2.5-point favorites here, teams in that range typically trail at a rate about 22% higher than what Jacksonville has experienced so far.
That matters because Rodriguez’s rushing share drops even further when the Jags are behind. He’s handled just 1 of their 20 designed rush attempts while trailing.
The matchup is also much tougher. Houston ranks 3rd in DVOA against the run, and Rodriguez is generally more likely to be used in short-yardage/goal-line situations anyway — which can help his TD equity, but isn’t great for piling up rushing yards.
I have his median closer to 14.5 yards with around a 61% chance to stay under 16.5.
Pick: Chris Rodriguez Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-112, DraftKings)
Daniel Jones Passing Yards
The Colts have trailed at the 7th-highest rate in the league this season. So, getting a home game against Tennessee as 7-point favorites should create a pretty different game environment.
Based on teams favored by 7, I have Indy projected to trail at a rate around 24% lower than usual, which should naturally push them a little more toward Jonathan Taylor and the run game.
The Titans also use Cover 4 on 33% of their snaps, which is the highest rate in the league — and Daniel Jones is averaging a career-low 5.6 yards per attempt against Cover 4 this season.
Tennessee is obviously still a softer pass defense overall, but they’ve actually been excellent at limiting YAC; the best rate in the league.
That matters even more with Alec Pierce out because Jones is leaning heavily on Josh Downs, Keenan Allen and Tyler Warren underneath.
I could see Jones completing plenty of passes and moving the chains, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to a huge yardage day.
Indy also calls a pass after throwing for a first down 13% below league expectations. So, even successful passing plays may just lead right back into Taylor and the run game.
There’s also the rushing angle. Jones has basically been a mall Santa this year, which I expected coming off last season’s Achilles tear. But at some point he may start feeling spry enough to take off a little more.
Any extra scrambling would only eat into the passing projection.
I have his median closer to 220.5 yards, which comes out to around a 59% chance to stay under 234.5.
Passing yard markets naturally have a pretty wide range of outcomes, so the edge isn’t massive on paper — but I really like how all the underlying factors line up here as I go game by game updating my projections for our prop tool/DFS models/my fantasy rankings.
Pick: Daniel Jones Under 234.5 Passing Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Darren Waller Receiving Yards
Darren Waller has cleared this line in three straight games, and the only time he didn’t was Week 1 when he still had 28 yards in a more limited role against Chicago. So, I’m sure the game-log chasers will be all over the over here.
But I think there’s some sneaky value on the under — and as always with Waller, I won’t be shocked if he just goes 4/50/2 and makes this look stupid either.
The biggest reason is Jalen Coker returning and getting closer to 100% coming off the Week 5 bye. I think Coker has quietly become one of the better, more underrated WRs in the league.
So, Coker's return was always going to affect the other pass catchers. I suspected Waller might be one of them, but the splits were even more extreme than I expected.
In Week 3, Coker got knocked out right before halftime. At that point, Waller had 0 targets on 9 routes. With Coker out in the second half, Waller saw 7 targets on 19 routes.
On the season, Waller has just an 8.7% target rate with Coker healthy, compared to a 34% target rate in the second half of Week 3 plus Week 4 with Coker out.
Obviously I’m not projecting Waller anywhere close to a 9% target rate here, but I do think Coker’s return is a pretty meaningful hit to his between-the-20s usage.
Waller has also caught 81% of his targets this season. So, there should be some catch-rate regression coming too.
I have his median closer to 26 receiving yards, with potentially a little more downside if these Coker splits carry over more than I’m currently baking in.
I specifically prefer fading his yardage. Waller catching a short TD early is completely fine for this bet. In fact, I could see them continuing to use him as more of a weapon in the red zone while Coker absorbs more of the work between the 20s, which is exactly the kind of role split that can help this under.
Pick: Darren Waller Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Cade Otton Receiving Yards
Cade Otton has gone for 37 and 25 yards in Jalon Daniels’ two starts, and I’m already expecting there to be fewer passing yards to go around with Daniels than we typically saw with Baker.
The more concerning trend for Otton came last week, though. His first-read target rate dropped from 23% to just 4% as Tampa designed a much higher percentage of the passing game around Emeka Egbuka and Kenny Gainwell.
That matters even more with Daniels under center because he’s going to scramble at one of the highest rates in the league. If Otton isn’t showing up early in the progression, there are going to be plenty of plays where Daniels simply takes off before ever getting to him. That could be a pretty meaningful hit to Otton’s expected target rate.
Even when Daniels has targeted him, the targets haven’t exactly been built for yardage. Otton’s average depth of target is just 3.5 yards with Daniels, a few yards lower than it was with Baker.
The market has Under 3.5 receptions around -150, which is pretty much in line with where I have it. That’s another reason I prefer attacking the yardage instead. If he finishes with three catches, I think he stays under 30.5 most of the time — and given how shallow the targets have been, there’s at least some path where even a fourth catch doesn’t automatically kill us.
I’m projecting his median closer to 27.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to stay under 30.5. I’m using an expected first-read rate around the average of Daniels’ two starts, so I’m not overreacting to that 4% from last week. But if even some of that trend carries over, Otton’s floor is quite a bit lower than my median projection suggests.
Pick: Cade Otton Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-116, DraftKings)
