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The Houston Texans (1-4) and Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) meet in the Week 6 NFL London Game on Sunday morning. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET from Wembley Stadium in London, England. The game will broadcast live on NFL Network.
The Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites over the Jaguars on the spread, with the over/under set at 42.5 total points. Jacksonville is a -142 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Houston is a +120 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Texans vs Jaguars predictions for the NFL London Game.
Texans vs Jaguars Prediction
- Texans vs Jaguars picks: Under 42.5 | Nico Collins Over 69.5 Receiving Yards + Escalator
My Texans vs Jaguars best bets are the game total under and Nico Collins to go over 69.5 receiving yards. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Texans vs Jaguars Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 42.5 -108o / -112u | +120 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 42.5 -108o / -112u | -142 |
- Texans vs Jaguars spread: Texans +2.5, Jaguars -2.5
- Texans vs Jaguars total: over/under 42.5
- Texans vs Jaguars moneyline: Texans +120, Jaguars -142
Texans vs Jaguars NFL London Preview
Houston Texans Betting Preview: Trending Up
Welcome to Sunday Morning Football.
The Texans enter this London showdown as a genuinely good football team, ranking top-11 overall in DVOA, including top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The defense has steadily clawed its way back up the rankings, while C.J. Stroud has the passing offense operating at a high level.
The single biggest schematic mismatch on the field works heavily in Houston's favor: Jacksonville’s offensive line is missing Anton Harrison, reducing them to a bottom-three unit. Now they have to line up against an elite Houston pass rush led by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
The Jaguars simply haven't faced a great pass rush this season, and this is the league's best.
Jaguars head coach Liam Coen is a brilliant playcaller. He's only dipped below the 25th percentile in EPA per play four times during his tenure with Jacksonville. However, two of those four occurrences came in the two Texans games last year.
Houston's offense excels at protecting the football, committing just two turnovers all season, which directly counters a Jacksonville defense that has been relying on unsustainable red-zone stands and takeaways.
These AFC South rivals have played five consecutive one-score games, making this key matchup close to a coin flip.
While Houston +2.5 is a solid spread side, the moneyline offers even better value. However, the ultimate way to play this setup is taking the Texans to win the AFC South at +650 on DraftKings.
A Houston victory claims the crucial head-to-head tiebreaker, pulling them within 1.5 games of Jacksonville with a very soft upcoming slate (Giants, Chargers, Browns, Colts) that could quickly get the Texans to 6-4.
Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview: Struggling in the Secondary
This is technically a second consecutive London "home" game for Jacksonville. We don't really know how much it helps to have a second straight international game yet. The Jaguars won and covered by nine points in their two previous spots like this, but that's a tiny sample.
We do know this setup robs Jacksonville of a true home-field division advantage. Per nfelo, the Jaguars have the best home-field advantage in the NFL over the last five years. Moving this matchup to a neutral site costs them roughly 2-to-2.5 points on the spread, representing a 7%-10% drop in win probability.
Jacksonville's defense is thriving on paper, but as I mentioned above, it is relying on unsustainable red-zone stops and turnover luck.
In coverage, the Jaguars operate as a pass funnel, ranking in the top five in passing attempts allowed for a second consecutive season. In fact, the Jaguars are the only team in the NFL to allow over 1,000 receiving yards to wide receivers through five weeks.
The Jaguars have already allowed five wideouts to clear 70+ receiving yards — and that is despite facing Deshaun Watson, Bo Nix, and Jalen Hurts while ducking A.J. Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, and DeVonta Smith already.
Texans vs Jaguars Prediction, Betting Analysis
Trends point toward a low-scoring battle: the total sits at 42.5 in what projects as the slowest-paced game on the entire Week 6 slate.
It looks windy and drizzly in London — windy unders have hit at a 61% clip over the last five years, DeMeco Ryans' road unders are 17-10, and both teams enter at 4-1 to the first-half under, with the Jaguars 4-1 to the under overall on the season.
I lean under 42.5 with a half unit play, but my favorite way to bet teams or sides in this one is that Texans +650 division ticket.
Pick: Under 42.5
Texans vs Jaguars Player Props
The Texans can't run the football to save their lives, and with David Montgomery out, they shouldn't even bother trying against a stout Jaguars front. That should mean C.J. Stroud will be forced to air it out.
While some may look to bet on the recently acquired Marvin Harrison Jr., I'll stay way from unknown snap counts and routes until we see more. The primary target to back is Nico Collins, who has killed the Jags in recent seasons.
Jacksonville runs a top-10 rate of man coverage, and Nico Collins is a man-coverage destroyer.
Against man schemes, Collins' target share, yards per route run (YPRR), and targets per route run (TPRR) all spike by 50% or more.
Just look at his last five game logs against Jacksonville:
- 7 receptions, 104 yards
- 12 receptions, 151 yards
- 8 receptions, 119 yards
- 8 receptions, 104 yards
- 7 receptions, 136 yards
That is five straight 100+ yard outings against the Jaguars, and he's averaging 8.4 catches for 122.8 yards on 12.2 targets per game.
Nico's standard line of 69.5 receiving yards is underpriced by the market. We only need 70 yards to clear the base line, making him a prime escalator candidate in this spot, especially at 100+ yards where he's cleared so often against Jacksonville.
Picks:
- Nico Collins Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Nico Collins 100+ Receiving Yards (+270, FanDuel)
- Nico Collins 125+ Receiving Yards (+580, FanDuel)
- Nico Collins 150+ Receiving Yards (+1329, Kalshi)
