Best Ravens vs. Rams Prop Bets & Picks for MNF: Todd Gurley & Marquise Brown
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Todd Gurley
- Justin Bailey highlights two of the top NFL prop bets for the Monday Night Football matchup featuring the Ravens at Rams.
- Find his picks for the over/unders on Rams RB Todd Gurley's receiving yards and Ravens WR Marquise Brown's receptions.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Ravens vs. Rams Prop Bets
Now let’s take a look at two of the top props worth considering for the Monday Night Football contest between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams.
Rams RB Todd Gurley
THE PICK: Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Understandably, 20.5 receiving yards isn’t that much, but Gurley hasn’t been used too often in the Rams’ passing game of late.
Over their last four games, he’s seeing just 7% of their target share, averaging a measly 2.3 targets per game. Additionally, over that four-game span, his receptions went: 3, 0, 0 and 1. It’s hard to pile up receiving yards without any receptions.
So far, Gurley would’ve beat this prop in just two of his nine games this season. He hasn’t been heavily utilized in the passing game compared to last year. It should also help the Ravens are allowing the ninth-fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs thus far, per Sports Info Solutions.
We presently have Gurley projected for 17.3 receiving yards in the props tool.
I’d bet this to -130 and pray he doesn’t rip off one or two dump-offs for a long gain.
Ravens WR Marquise Brown
THE PICK: Under 3.5 Receptions (+115)
This prop resembles the Mike Williams prop we targeted last week, only we’re getting plus-money on this one.
Brown should draw shadow coverage from Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey, which won’t help his cause to exceed this prop. But more importantly, Brown doesn’t have elite usage from a target standpoint. Over his past five games, Brown is seeing just 4.3 targets per game. A lot of that has to do with the Ravens not being a high-volume passing team.
Lamar Jackson has averaged 28 pass attempts per game, and overall, the Ravens rank 32nd in pass attempts while having the second-most rush attempts.
If Brown sees the type of usage he’s seen over the past five weeks, he’ll have to catch nearly 100% of the targets thrown his way. The combination of the Ravens’ run-heavy scheme and the likely shadow coverage from Ramsey has me drawn to the under on this one.
I’d bet this to +100.