Rhamondre Stevenson Player Props: Expert Backs RB for Big Patriots vs Bills Workload

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Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Attempts

It’s going to be a competitive one up in Foxborough where the 6-5 New England Patriots will host the 8-3 Buffalo Bills with significant playoff implications on the line. The Bills are 0-3 in a divisional game, 1-4 against the spread in their last five, and are only sitting as 3.5-point favorites, indicating this won’t be a blowout.

Damien Harris (9.3 rush attempts/game) will not suit up tonight with a thigh injury, and it has surprisingly just been announced that backup J.J. Taylor will not be elevated.

In a not-so-crowded backfield, this creates the perfect opportunity for a big Rhamondre Stevenson workload game. Defensively, it’s not as bad as a matchup as one would think on paper. Since Week 9, when Josh Allen suffered a right elbow injury vs. the Jets, opposing running backs are averaging 22.75 total attempts per game. This would rank 10th-most over an entire season.

Early in the game, the Patriots know that establishing the run is their best shot at winning to keep the Bills offense off the field. This is because Mac Jones, not known for being mobile, is very exposable when getting pressured. According to Pro Football Focus, his passing grade metric drops from 59.2 to 25.9 (third-lowest among all quarterbacks with a minimum of 75 dropbacks). Having him throw the rock is the last thing on Bill Belichick’s mind.

Stevenson’s got a massive workload ahead of him, and I can easily see him getting to 18+ carries tonight, making me love the over on his rush attempts prop.