True Super Bowl Odds: How Good Are the San Francisco 49ers?

True Super Bowl Odds: How Good Are the San Francisco 49ers? article feature image
Credit:

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Francisco 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman

  • The San Francisco 49ers are one of two remaining undefeated NFL teams.
  • Following 10,000 simulations of the NFL season, we determine if the 49ers are legitimate contenders to win Super Bowl 54.

Following their decisive win over the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football, the San Francisco 49ers are forcing fans, analysts and bettors to take them seriously.

At 4-0 on the season, San Francisco is one of only two remaining undefeated teams — the Patriots are 5-0.

On Oct. 1, the 49ers were listed at 22-1 to win Super Bowl 54 at PointsBet. They’re now 16-1 after taking care of Cleveland.

On the other hand, New England is the clear championship favorite at 3-1.


Odds as of Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


Considering both teams are undefeated, is San Francisco being disrespected by the betting market?

To find out, we ran 10,000 simulations of the NFL season to find out if the 49ers are legitimate contenders to win Super Bowl 54, and the results were staggering.

In all honesty, I was expected to hear the terms “overvalued” and “overrated” when I contacted our analysts for updated sim results following Monday Night Football.

Boy was I wrong.

At 8.13%, the 49ers now have the best chance of all NFC teams to win the Super Bowl, just ahead of the New Orleans Saints (7.76%).

San Francisco also advances to the Super Bowl in 17.64% of our sims, again just ahead of the Saints (17.29%).

Here’s an updated look at how the Niners’ season shakes out after 10,000 simulations:

A loaded NFC West makes winning the division the biggest hurdle, but they’re still able to it in just over half of all simulations.

If you’re looking at this table and wondering if having the third-best Super Bowl odds makes San Fran a good bet, you’d be correct.

The 49ers’ Super Bowl odds should be closer to 11-1 based on our sims, meaning there is still meat left on that bone despite the team’s impressive 4-0 start.