Seahawks vs Cardinals Predictions, Thursday Night Football Picks, Odds, Betting Trends

Seahawks vs Cardinals Betting Trends

Seahawks Trends

• The Seahawks are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS against the Cardinals since the calendar flipped to 2022
• The Seahawks are 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS on the road in primetime since 2018

Cardinals Trends

• Kyler Murray is 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in his career against the Seahawks
• Murray is a shocking 6-24 against the first-half spread against NFC West opposition, including 1-14 1H ATS vs. NFC West in his last 15 starts

Thursday Night Football Preview, Prediction

Seahawks Betting Preview: New-Look Offense

Seattle’s offense has looked much different under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and QB Sam Darnold.

The Seahawks are more run-heavy with a -4.5% pass rate over expected, the third-lowest mark in the league (ahead of only the Eagles and Jets). When they do throw, it is highly concentrated to WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the league with a 42% target rate and 60% air yards share.

It is a straightforward offense, which could make it easier for Arizona to prepare on a short week.

The Cardinals defense has quietly improved, ranking 13th in DVOA after finishing 14th last season. They have been much better at generating pressure, jumping from a 31% to 34% pressure rate, which is closer to league average. A big part of that is offseason addition Josh Sweat, who already has 12 pressures and two sacks entering Thursday Night Football.

Arizona's run defense has also been solid, ranking ninth in DVOA. The LB duo of Mack Wilson and Budda Baker has been excellent in run support, helping Arizona hold opponents to the sixth-lowest rushing success rate. That is going to be key against Seattle’s ground-heavy attack.

Cardinals Betting Preview: Will Injuries Down Cards?

Arizona has averaged 1.96 points per drive this season, which ranks 20th. The Seahawks will be their toughest test yet, as they have allowed the fewest points per drive (1.31).

Seattle’s run defense has been stout; it has allowed the second-lowest rushing yards over expected per attempt and ranks third in DVOA.

The Seahawks' pass rush has been just as strong, generating pressure at the fourth-highest rate while blitzing at the third-lowest rate. That combination is lethal because it puts less strain on the secondary.

Seattle’s secondary should also get a boost with CB Devon Witherspoon and S Julian Love both expected back this week. I was high on this defense heading into the season and it has not disappointed. This is a very tough matchup for Arizona’s offense.

The Cardinals suffered a huge blow last week when RB James Conner went down with a season-ending foot injury. Trey Benson is the next man up and will handle the lead role going forward.

Benson has actually been the more efficient back through three games and should help prevent too much of a drop-off. Still, success will be tough to find against Seattle.

The Seahawks have been more vulnerable over the middle of the field, especially on targets to LB Tyrice Knight, who has allowed a completion on all 10 of his targets in coverage. One of those was an eight-yard catch to Jack Stoll, where Knight completely overreacted to a simple out route and ended up on the ground.

To make matters worse, Stoll later scored the first touchdown of his five-year career, which only highlights how shaky Knight has been. I would not be surprised if Arizona schemes routes for Trey McBride at Knight specifically.

LT Paris Johnson Jr. is questionable after missing last week with a knee injury. His absence would be a massive blow; Kelvin Beachum has struggled badly filling in, allowing a team-high seven pressures. He leads the team in pressures allowed despite playing two fewer games than the other four starting offensive linemen.

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Seahawks vs Cardinals Best Bet

This sets up as a lower-scoring TNF game.

The Cardinals are facing their toughest test of the season (Seattle's defense), they just lost James Conner for the year, and they might be without Paris Johnson Jr. again. They have also played at the slowest neutral pace through three weeks.

Arizona should find some success underneath with Trey McBride, but Kyler Murray’s average depth of target is just 5.9 yards. That means the completions are typically short gains, followed by 30+ seconds ticking off the clock before the next snap. Even if the offense moves the chains, it will chew up plenty of time.

On the other side, I think the market may be underrating Arizona’s defense. Josh Sweat has transformed the Cards' pass rush, and their run defense has been strong enough to slow down a one-dimensional, run-heavy Seattle offense.

That style will also bleed clock, making both teams heavily reliant on red-zone efficiency to clear 43.5. It is certainly possible, but I am betting against it.

Totals of 43–44 are key numbers, so keep an eye on how the market moves.

If books push the total to 44 or 44.5, there is value in waiting. If it starts dropping to 43, I would grab 43.5 while it is still available.

Pick: Under 43.5

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